Cricket......

['Dale]

Since the start of last year, only Nathan Lyon has bowled more overs in international cricket than Rabada.

 

CricInfo

[Stretch]

this was an intriguing listen, there is a lot more science behind the sport than one would think.

 

big takeway - kirsie reckons huge diff between T20 and 50overs,

but that doesn't explain how india comes off IPL smoking, and QdK and KG couldn't bring their form in.

 

 

 

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-science-of-cricket-with-gary-kirsten/id1461719225?i=1000441937825

I can't stand T20 ... Haven't watched one IPL game ever. Don't ask me why... Just doesn't sit well with me.

[Gandalf]

I can't stand T20 ... Haven't watched one IPL game ever. Don't ask me why... Just doesn't sit well with me.

but stretch.... this will be in your backyard man.

 

https://www.icc-cricket.com/news/1110372

[Stretch]

but stretch.... this will be in your backyard man.

 

https://www.icc-cricket.com/news/1110372

Can't see myself traveling up to Dublin for that

[Shebeen]

Since the start of last year, only Nathan Lyon has bowled more overs in international cricket than Rabada.

 

CricInfo

 

I don't understand how it's now an issue that he's played IPL.

CLEARLY he was one of the first names in the WC squad, so why did he end up playing 9 of the 10 ODIs vs SL and Pak when they were really trying other bowlers?

 

but it's nothing new, always been a concern. 

https://citizen.co.za/sport/south-african-sport/sa-cricket-sport/1442649/kagiso-rabada-trust-me-i-know-my-body/

[Squier]

"...there are only three things wrong with this South African team: they can't bat, they can't bowl and can't field. That might sound overly harsh and it's not an original line in cricketing folklore, but if it makes the Proteas the laughing stock of the World Cup it's because they are."

 

https://www.sacricketmag.com/proteas-fast-bowlers-world-cup-slow-lane/

 

Pretty spot on.

[Vetplant]

I've been itching to do this for a while now, but needed a nice compact dataset to work with. I don't do coding yet so would probably have been easier with coding than doing this manually:

 

I took all the completed 2019 World Cup Matches to date and looked at what the result would have been if the game was halted after 25 overs into the 2nd innings.

 

In some cases the game was close at that stage and a wicket fell a couple of overs before so I looked at those as well, back to a minimum of 20 overs, which is the official cut-off.

 

RESULTS:

DLS has only been 59% accurate in my sample set, which is quite shocking if you think that it is the accepted standard method to determine a result.

 

Most interestingly for me is how this would have affected the Log. SA would have benefited in 3 of these games and would have had 4 WINS in total by now.

 

The table would have looked like the last picture...

 

[Shebeen]

I've been itching to do this for a while now, but needed a nice compact dataset to work with. I don't do coding yet so would probably have been easier with coding than doing this manually:

 

I took all the completed 2019 World Cup Matches to date and looked at what the result would have been if the game was halted after 25 overs into the 2nd innings.

 

In some cases the game was close at that stage and a wicket fell a couple of overs before so I looked at those as well, back to a minimum of 20 overs, which is the official cut-off.

 

RESULTS:

DLS has only been 59% accurate in my sample set, which is quite shocking if you think that it is the accepted standard method to determine a result.

 

Most interestingly for me is how this would have affected the Log. SA would have benefited in 3 of these games and would have had 4 WINS in total by now.

 

The table would have looked like the last picture...

that's pretty cool. but I guess no one is looking at DLS at the 25th over if there's no rain about.

 

BUT if i read this correctly,

31 games, 4 rained out, so 27 completed.

of the 27, at over 25.0, 20 of them has DLS predicting the team that eventually won.

that's 74% - I'm looking at the yellow games obviously. What would be an acceptable result? 85%? 

 

I'm not sure how "agile" DLS is, and how it reacts to changes in the world game. Ie. I'd rather take the last 4 years of data, than the last 14. Even though it's a larger dataset, I think a game played in 2005 doesn't really reflect the scoring trend we see today.

 

Another thing that is not taken into account, is the length of your tail. Eg. if England being 6 down is equivalent to most other teams being 4 down as they bat so deep, but DLS can't factor that in.

 

a perfect system it is not, the best one we have, most likely!

(did you know, DL cribbed their system from the UCB one, first developed by a std 8 from RBHS' maths project)

[babse]

Really hope England get klappd in their last 2 games and the bangys can sneak a win in either of their last 2 games (likely against the pakis).

 

Really hope the shakib and Co make the play offs. How well this team has grown as a unit.

[dannygirl]

https://www.bbc.com/sport/cricket/48704114

 

Eloquently put...

 

"As a team, they have batted with the fluency of a rhinoceros trying to play a Beethoven piano sonata during a rough ocean crossing on a slightly leaky 17th-century warship."

 

Referring to SA...

Edited June 25, 2019 by dannygirl

[gemmerbal]

My utter disdain for the Indian Parkie League is well written on here.

 

I can't stand T20 ... Haven't watched one IPL game ever. Don't ask me why... Just doesn't sit well with me.

[Vetplant]

that's pretty cool. but I guess no one is looking at DLS at the 25th over if there's no rain about.

 

BUT if i read this correctly,

31 games, 4 rained out, so 27 completed.

of the 27, at over 25.0, 20 of them has DLS predicting the team that eventually won.

that's 74% - I'm looking at the yellow games obviously. What would be an acceptable result? 85%? 

 

I'm not sure how "agile" DLS is, and how it reacts to changes in the world game. Ie. I'd rather take the last 4 years of data, than the last 14. Even though it's a larger dataset, I think a game played in 2005 doesn't really reflect the scoring trend we see today.

 

Another thing that is not taken into account, is the length of your tail. Eg. if England being 6 down is equivalent to most other teams being 4 down as they bat so deep, but DLS can't factor that in.

 

a perfect system it is not, the best one we have, most likely!

(did you know, DL cribbed their system from the UCB one, first developed by a std 8 from RBHS' maths project)

My problem of DLS is that it can not account for the randomness of sport. 

 

I would have expected that the games which it got wrong would have only been the ones where the game was won in the final over of the 2nd innings or similar. But it is interesting that it got these games wrong as well:

• ENG beat SA by 104 runs vs SA win by 1 = 105 run DELTA
• Aus win by 41 vs PAK win by 14 = 55 run DELTA
• Aus win by 87 vs SL win by 24 = 111 run DELTA
• Bang win by 62 vs Afg win by 3 (at 20 overs) = 65 run DELTA

 

Those are massive swings in results.

 

I think we should have something similar to "Umpires Call" where if the margin is too small we get a situation where the points are shared.

 

Agreed, there is currently no other system they can use and if we don't use DLS at all we will have allot more NR games... But then again, we are all very entertained when a 5 day Test Match ends in a draw, so maybe it isn't so bad.

[Shebeen]

Really hope England get klappd in their last 2 games and the bangys can sneak a win in either of their last 2 games (likely against the pakis).

 

Really hope the shakib and Co make the play offs. How well this team has grown as a unit.

imagine if England did not make it out the group phase...people might even forget how crap we were at the tournament(eventually)!

 

but they need to lose to both NZ and india (quite possible)

Bangladesh would then need to beat either india or pakistan (2nd one more likely, although AFG did push india)

OR Pakistan win 2 of these games NZ/AFG/Ban

 

so the PAK/BAN could be to see who leapfrogs above england (as they will be done).the only way they could then make it is if this game was rained out

 

ENG have decent runrate

[Vetplant]

imagine if England did not make it out the group phase...people might even forget how crap we were at the tournament(eventually)!

 

but they need to lose to both NZ and india (quite possible)

Bangladesh would then need to beat either india or pakistan (2nd one more likely, although AFG did push india)

OR Pakistan win 2 of these games NZ/AFG/Ban

 

so the PAK/BAN could be to see who leapfrogs above england (as they will be done).the only way they could then make it is if this game was rained out

 

ENG have decent runrate

PAK giving it to NZ at the moment....:

NZ 46/4 * (12.3/50 ov)

[bertusras]

PAK giving it to NZ at the moment....:

NZ 46/4 * (12.3/50 ov)

 

I always forget how young Shaheen Afridi is

 

 

Current age 19 years 81 days

 

He certainly doesn't look it!

[babse]

83/5 

 

williamson gone! 

 

If pakistan could win here, they could easily win their last 2 games too.