Pure Savage Posted February 28, 2017 Share Too true, Wannbe. There is very little appreciation of exactly how hard it is to do a sub 3, even seeded in B, C or D. It's not the pace down the Blue Route or along Main Road to Simon's Town that determines the difference between 2:59:59 and 3:00:01 or say 3:05. The surge at the top of Smits, the pace past Cape Point, the surge at the 4 ways at Slangkop, the pace through the toll gantry at Noordhoek. Miss any one of those and you are not going to see 2 in front of your time. And when I say it's a surge, the difference in pace in any of the 4 points I mention is massive for the sub 3 crowd and the 3:05 crowd. Ride Suikerbossie in more than 7 minutes and you've burnt the toast. That is 1.1 km at an average of 7% and 1km at an average of 5%. After 2:35 on the bike already. Last year a record 886 riders did a sub 3 in perfect conditions. Another 384 took another 5 minutes and another 503 took 5 minutes more. As many riders took 10 minutes extra as did a sub 3. Not every one of those 887 riders were dropped at some stage in the race but I would say at least 95% of them were. Don't get dropped anywhere to have a chance even if in B, C or D. In 1M you will be in the wind the whole route. Read above about Suikerbossie. So Wannabe is totally accurate when he says the chances from 1M are about the same as Zuma resigning soon. The seeding is roughly accurate and you will be (edit stating) starting with riders who can do a 3:15 to 3:30 but cannot sustain the pace at the required level where it matters. And that's not on the flats or downhill sections. But as it's sport and we love the unpredictable, go ahead and prove my analyses wrong. Edit: spelling 7 minutes to do Suikerbosie! I wish, last year I only just hung onto the group with a 5:15! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pure Savage Posted February 28, 2017 Share That's a brilliant idea Skubarra - a very instructive exercise - 3:30 if things go very well - 3:40-3:45 if it's an average day. Thanks for that. You a funny guy Carbon - actually 588 others in last year's 3E. You are a bit fitter than my folks and they did a 3:25 last year. So aim for that!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
carbon29er Posted February 28, 2017 Share Any other guys here attempting a sub 3 on the MTB?As long as you come back with the mandatory "I did a sub 3 on my 29er WITH knoblies" thread after the event. We LOVE those threads. It fills us with such admiration and a sense of awe. Only thing that beats that is starting in 2 something and doing it. But as it is a road race I suggest you go ride this weekend and leave next weekend to the guys who have the decency common sense to turn up on the right bike. Kalahari Vegmot, Long Wheel Base, VolkAdik and 4 others 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boerklong Posted February 28, 2017 Share Any other guys here attempting a sub 3 on the MTB?Not me. I'm a 4:30 type oke Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabe Posted February 28, 2017 Share As long as you come back with the mandatory "I did a sub 3 on my 29er WITH knoblies" thread after the event. We LOVE those threads. It fills us with such admiration and a sense of awe. Only thing that beats that is starting in 2 something and doing it. But as it is a road race I suggest you go ride this weekend and leave next weekend to the guys who have the decency common sense to turn up on the right bike. Ooh êh êh, You on fire again... Pure Savage, HBO and carbon29er 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
carbon29er Posted February 28, 2017 Share Snip Anyone out there also in 1M that would like to give it serious horns and try?Basically everyone who lines up in the 1st 2 rows at the start. Go hard from the gun and you'll soon find a few riders who will work with you. DJR and Cacey 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
carbon29er Posted February 28, 2017 Share 7 minutes to do Suikerbosie! I wish, last year I only just hung onto the group with a 5:15!We're talking 2:59:59 here, Not 2:49:59. VolkAdik 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pure Savage Posted February 28, 2017 Share We're talking 2:59:59 here, Not 2:49:59.Depending on the wind it could be either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcza Posted February 28, 2017 Share Carbon shattering sub 3 dreams every year Duane_Bosch, VolkAdik, carbon29er and 3 others 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
carbon29er Posted February 28, 2017 Share Carbon shattering sub 3 dreams every year Sorry. Genuinely am. But look on the bright side. The work for next year's sub 3 has already started with that 1M seeding this year. Wannabe, VolkAdik, jcza and 1 other 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcza Posted February 28, 2017 Share Sorry. Genuinely am. But look on the bright side. The work for next year's sub 3 has already started with that 1M seeding this year. Its ok, I got lucky last year with the perfect weather conditions. Still wondering what to do this year. Go for it again from a early starting group or take it easy with the missus. Suppose weather conditions will dictate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Long Wheel Base Posted February 28, 2017 Share 7 minutes to do Suikerbosie! I wish, last year I only just hung onto the group with a 5:15!Just looking on strava now, A few segments up there. Which one are we comparing?Suikerbossie(South Side)Suikerbossie 1.1km IntervalSavage Suikerbossie South Sprint (I wonder who named that one???) VolkAdik and Pure Savage 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
s14phoenix Posted February 28, 2017 Share Wish I was riding this one this year. Work commitments have made me miss this one this year AGAIN. It remains that 1 race to do that I have not done. Sucks Good luck to everyone on the home stretch now before the event. Don't do stupid stuff now and stay safe. carbon29er 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
carbon29er Posted February 28, 2017 Share Just looking on strava now, A few segments up there. Which one are we comparing?Suikerbossie(South Side)Suikerbossie 1.1km IntervalSavage Suikerbossie South Sprint (I wonder who named that one???) Suikerbossie is made up of 3 parts, maybe 4 if you include the very fast climb from the second traffic circle after the Engen to the bus stop before it levels out with a flat section to the lights. Then, after the lights there is a white line painted across the yellow shoulder area. That is Suikerbossie, 1.8km to the white line painted at the exact top. From the first line to the pedestrian crossing is 1.1km at an average of 7%. The pedestrian crossing signals an easier gradient of 5% for the next 600m to the next pedestrian crossing when it levels off again to about 3% for the final drag of 100m to the top and the white line. Most of us back off 100m from the top and then spend 5 minutes chasing like a frenzied tik addict to get back on to the bikes we let go before they reach the 12 Apostles Hotel. Wannabe and Long Wheel Base 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smurfy Posted February 28, 2017 Share Any other guys here attempting a sub 3 on the MTB?Jy gaan hom die jaar klap onder die 3ure. Tenminste 2:55 jou YSTER. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skubarra Posted February 28, 2017 Share Suikerbossie is made up of 3 parts, maybe 4 if you include the very fast climb from the second traffic circle after the Engen to the bus stop before it levels out with a flat section to the lights. First Argus I did this climb on my mtb thinking - "what are these roadies on about? Suikerbossie is a breeze..." Mamil and carbon29er 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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