Tour de France 2021

[Yyyy]

10 hours ago, Mountain Bru said:

I unfortunately think Vingegaard is going to be a bit of a one hit wonder too in terms of GC podiums. You can't just look at the results, but also how and when those results were obtained. Tao G won the Giro in probably the weakest field possible after all the Covid stories and Thomas etc crashing out. I mean 2nd and 3rd where Jai Hinley and Kelderman that year ????‍♂️. Mitchelton and Jumbo pulled their whole teams from the race. So yes, he won, but he's not a serious GC contender when the big boys come out to play. Even the year Carapaz won the Giro, I think he got a bit lucky not being marked closely enough when he was 2 minutes down, and then making all that time up on 1 stage. But a guy thats loosing 1:30 to his rivals in a 30km time trial is always going to struggle against the "favourites" like Pog, Rog or Bernal.  

Ben O'Conner got lucky this year too. Yes he finished 4th, but he was 10 minutes down, and that's after he made up 6 minutes on the stage he won when UAE didn't bother chasing him down in the break. If he was a serious contender, they'd have chased, and he'd likely have ended 16 minutes down in the end. 

So in my opinion, Jonas' coming second this year in a really weak field proves he's maybe on the "Mas, Lopez, Carapaz, Kelderman, etc" level, but he'll get smoked as soon as there's an uninjured Pog, Rog, Bernal, maybe even Thomas in the field. In previous years, if he finished 5:20 back on the leader, he'd have been 6th or 7th which I think is about right for him. 

Different Opinion

I disagree with your views on Jonas and Carapaz.

Jonas finished 2nd in the Tour of the Basque Country ahead of Pogs and only second to Roglic this year. Tour of the Basque country is one of the tougher week long stage races on the Calendar. Now at the tour, if Jonas didnt have to wait on Roglic on stage 3 and perhaps was the leader with more confidence during the first week of the tour i reckon results would have been much closer than 5min gap. Jonas may in future be the only one to take the fight to Pogs.

Carapaz doesnt have the same level of TT ability as Rogs, Pogs, or Jonas and at a clear disadvantage, but climbing he is pretty much there or there about with the best. His win at the Giro in 2019 is not be scoffed at and he did push Rogs very close at the Vuelta last year. I think if you removed Rogs time bonuses from the Vuelta, he would have won Rogs. However any GT with more than one ITT in and his at a clear disadvantage. But definitely a level higher than Wilco, Mas, etc

Bernal is the anomaly. When on form you have to wonder if anyone can climb like he does. But he is not strong at ITT so whether he can beat Pogs will depend on the parkour of the GT

Right now I just think Pogs is a level above everyone else. 

 

 

Edited July 19, 2021 by YaseenEnos

[TNT1]

10 hours ago, Mountain Bru said:

I unfortunately think Vingegaard is going to be a bit of a one hit wonder too in terms of GC podiums. You can't just look at the results, but also how and when those results were obtained.

What? Like he was the only person able to put Pogacar in trouble in the mountains, and he was faster than him in the final TT?

 

I don't think you watched the same race as everyone else.

[Danger Dassie]

10 hours ago, Mountain Bru said:

Whats with all the kids on the podium? This might be an unpopular opinion, but I really don't think there should be kids up there. And as a sponsor, I'd be pissed if my guy, whose salary I pay so that he can be a billboard for my company, gets on the podium of the world's biggest bike race, and then covers up my brand with his kid. 

Even this?? 

Hard to say anything bad about WVA though

Not really an opinion shared by most. They aren’t “all the kids” it’s family, and riders spend very little time with them during the season and none during the event for at least four weeks.

If you as a sponsor have the attitude of I pay your salary so dance monkey and zero respect or understand/value of family. Then I’d say shove your salary, as a sports fan seeing your brand, then I’d say squeeze your product somewhere as clearly the values and ethics don’t align. 

[Chris_]

I was excited for Sepp Kuss to become a decent GC alternative to Rog, he can certainly climb with the best of them but needed a little bit more time I thought. (truth be told I don't think I had ever heard of Vin before this tour...)

Now though, I reckon for as long as Rog is around he must 'resign' himself to being a kickass work-horse for Rog and/or Vin. Maybe shelf his GC hopes for a bit (assuming that is the case obv). Vin has clearly shown he has the goods in all departments. And in good quantity too. To (out)perform for 3 weeks straight is no mistake.

 

(now if only they'd go back to Bianchi... all would be well)

[TNT1]

1 minute ago, Chris_ said:

I was excited for Sepp Kuss to become a decent GC alternative

 

 

How? He can't time trial anything like a top ten contender even.

[Jewbacca]

2 minutes ago, Chris_ said:

I was excited for Sepp Kuss to become a decent GC alternative to Rog, he can certainly climb with the best of them but needed a little bit more time I thought. (truth be told I don't think I had ever heard of Vin before this tour...)

Now though, I reckon for as long as Rog is around he must 'resign' himself to being a kickass work-horse for Rog and/or Vin. Maybe shelf his GC hopes for a bit (assuming that is the case obv). Vin has clearly shown he has the goods in all departments. And in good quantity too. To (out)perform for 3 weeks straight is no mistake.

 

(now if only they'd go back to Bianchi... all would be well)

Can Kuss ITT?

One thing for sure is that if you aren't among the top few at the ITT you won't contend a GT.

I'd put him in the same caegory as Joaquim Rodriguez. Great to watch and an amazing climber, but he doesn't have the out and out watts to not ship minutes on any decent length ITT

[Chris_]

1 minute ago, TNT1 said:

How? He can't time trial anything like a top ten contender even.

if you read the rest of the sentence - 'but needed a little bit more time I thought.'

that means time to work on the areas outside of his strong suit.

[Chris_]

5 minutes ago, Jewbacca said:

Can Kuss ITT?

 

Not right now. Thats obvious. 

But if GC was the carrot he needed, future tense, he could put in work to improve. At 26 I hope he's not fully past his sell-by date yet.

[TNT1]

1 minute ago, Chris_ said:

Not right now. Thats obvious. 

But if GC was the carrot he needed, future tense, he could put in work to improve. At 26 I hope he's not fully past his sell-by date yet.

But there are so many other riders younger than him who climb at least as well (if not better) and TT at a sufficient level. He's going to be 30 if and when his TT level is sufficient, think how many more 21 year olds will breaking through in the next four years.

[TNT1]

14 minutes ago, Chris_ said:

if you read the rest of the sentence - 'but needed a little bit more time I thought.'

that means time to work on the areas outside of his strong suit.

There is never going to be enough time.

Look at the names ahead of him here:

1	Wout Van Aert (Bel) Jumbo-Visma	0:35:53
2	Kasper Asgreen (Den) Deceuninck-QuickStep	0:00:21
3	Jonas Vingegaard (Den) Jumbo-Visma	0:00:32
4	Stefan Küng (Swi) Groupama-FDJ	0:00:38
5	Stefan Bissegger (Swi) EF Education-Nippo	0:00:44
6	Mattia Cattaneo (Ita) Deceuninck-QuickStep	0:00:49
7	Mikkel Bjerg (Den) UAE Team Emirates	0:00:52
8	Tadej Pogacar (Slo) UAE Team Emirates	0:00:57
9	Magnus Cort (Den) EF Education-Nippo	0:01:00
10	Dylan van Baarle (Ned) Ineos Grenadiers	0:01:21
11	Brandon McNulty (USA) UAE Team Emirates	0:01:35
12	Bruno Armirail (Fra) Groupama-FDJ	0:01:46
13	Jonathan Castroviejo Nicolas (Spa) Ineos Grenadiers	0:01:47
14	Omar Fraile Matarranz (Spa) Astana-Premier Tech
15	Fred Wright (GBr) Bahrain Victorious	0:01:56
16	Alexey Lutsenko (Kaz) Astana-Premier Tech	0:01:58
17	Maximilian Walscheid (Ger) Qhubeka-NextHash	0:02:01
18	Harry Sweeny (Aus) Lotto Soudal
19	Julian Alaphilippe (Fra) Deceuninck-QuickStep	0:02:05
20	Anthony Perez (Fra) Cofidis
21	Luke Durbridge (Aus) Team BikeExchange
22	Dries Devenyns (Bel) Deceuninck-QuickStep	0:02:06
23	Richard Carapaz (Ecu) Ineos Grenadiers	0:02:09
24	Neilson Powless (USA) EF Education-Nippo	0:02:16
25	Jonas Rickaert (Bel) Alpecin-Fenix	0:02:19
26	Wilco Kelderman (Ned) Bora-Hansgrohe	0:02:20
27	Enric Mas Nicolau (Spa) Movistar Team	0:02:29
28	Bauke Mollema (Ned) Trek-Segafredo	0:02:32
29	Hugo Houle (Can) Astana-Premier Tech	0:02:33
30	Xandro Meurisse (Bel) Alpecin-Fenix	0:02:40
31	Ben O'Connor (Aus) AG2R Citroën Team	0:02:41
32	Ruben Guerreiro (Por) EF Education-Nippo
33	Thomas De Gendt (Bel) Lotto Soudal	0:02:42
34	Connor Swift (GBr) Team Arkea-Samsic	0:02:43
35	Pierre Latour (Fra) TotalEnergies	0:02:45
36	Aurélien Paret Peintre (Fra) AG2R Citroën Team
37	Jasper Stuyven (Bel) Trek-Segafredo	0:02:47
38	Christophe Laporte (Fra) Cofidis	0:03:04
39	Dylan Teuns (Bel) Bahrain Victorious
40	Rigoberto Uran (Col) EF Education-Nippo	0:03:06
41	Louis Meintjes (RSA) Intermarché-Wanty-Gobert Matériaux	0:03:11
42	Pello Bilbao Lopez De Armentia (Spa) Bahrain Victorious	0:03:13
43	Richie Porte (Aus) Ineos Grenadiers	0:03:15
44	Rui Costa (Por) UAE Team Emirates	0:03:19
45	Michael Valgren (Den) EF Education-Nippo	0:03:22
46	Sergio Higuita Garcia (Col) EF Education-Nippo	0:03:23
47	Geraint Thomas (GBr) Ineos Grenadiers	0:03:28
48	Jakob Fuglsang (Den) Astana-Premier Tech	0:03:35
49	David Gaudu (Fra) Groupama-FDJ	0:03:36
50	Pierre-Luc Périchon (Fra) Cofidis	0:03:41
51	Michael Mørkøv (Den) Deceuninck-QuickStep	0:03:42
52	Sepp Kuss (USA) Jumbo-Visma	0:03:44

[Jewbacca]

Just now, Chris_ said:

Not right now. Thats obvious. 

But if GC was the carrot he needed, future tense, he could put in work to improve. At 26 I hope he's not fully past his sell-by date yet.

While I agree with the sentiments, I don't think it's as easy these days to adjust your focus and still maintain what made him successful.

If he starts putting out big watts, it will probably take a couple of seasons, he will likely gain some mass, which might effect his smooth, easy pedal stroke and make him less effective as a climber.

It's much the same as Sagan losing some weight and going for GC, which was the suggestion a few years ago. 

We need the specialists in cycling. Kuss is a climber. I wish him many many big mountain stage wins in what I hope is a long, illustrious career. 

TBH his racing is rad to watch. It would suck to lose him in the crowd of second snatchers and time misers in the GC bunch

[DieselnDust]

5 minutes ago, Chris_ said:

Not right now. Thats obvious. 

But if GC was the carrot he needed, future tense, he could put in work to improve. At 26 I hope he's not fully past his sell-by date yet.

 

 

Sure Kuss could improve his ITT. Wout could improve his climbing 9by decreasing his mass. Kuss would have to gain some muscle mass to produce more top end power. The elephant in the room is what is the rider contracted into the team to do? Riders are typically drafted for their strengths before they join a ProTour team. The grooming toward a specific discipline happens at the intermediate levels of the sport. There is sometimes an evolution toward a more complete set of skills but often the riders sort of pick a skill that their strength and then run with it for as long as they can.

[Chris_]

15 minutes ago, TNT1 said:

But there are so many other riders younger than him who climb at least as well (if not better) and TT at a sufficient level. He's going to be 30 if and when his TT level is sufficient, think how many more 21 year olds will breaking through in the next four years.

Ja you right, by then he's 30 and when thirty-something is mentioned you just sound over the hill. I should know by now after complaining about the young rider jersey this is becoming a younger persons game. fair.

Also, I don't know that many 21 yr olds, my pro-cycling knowledge is being exposed as a mere arm-chair commentator, hahaha

Rog I know isn't young either and when he bows out I was more thinking about TJV, Sepp stood out, I don't want Wout to change what he's doing, and then (pre-Vin) it left me wondering who will step up. Foss nah, who else

[TNT1]

6 minutes ago, Chris_ said:

Ja you right, by then he's 30 and when thirty-something is mentioned you just sound over the hill. I should know by now after complaining about the young rider jersey this is becoming a younger persons game. fair.

Also, I don't know that many 21 yr olds, my pro-cycling knowledge is being exposed as a mere arm-chair commentator, hahaha

Rog I know isn't young either and when he bows out I was more thinking about TJV, Sepp stood out, I don't want Wout to change what he's doing, and then (pre-Vin) it left me wondering who will step up. Foss nah, who else

Primoz is 31, but, and this is crucial to this discussion, he arrived on the scene as the complete package. He didnb't need years of trying to hone one particular aspect of his game. 

 

Much like the current crop of kids, they are simply, more or less, complete and ready to win.

Also, it is apt that the TT is called the race of truth. Not only does it expose the individual, it lays bare the rider's own weak points. I would even go so far as to suggest that in a three week tour, with 65+ km of flat TT's, Pogacar would find his job a bit harder. He is far better in the mountains than in a flat TT by the look of things.

Edited July 19, 2021 by TNT1

[J Wakefield]

Vingegaard is the real deal. This is not a once off lucky result. 

 

 

[TheoG]

41 minutes ago, Chris_ said:

Ja you right, by then he's 30 and when thirty-something is mentioned you just sound over the hill. I should know by now after complaining about the young rider jersey this is becoming a younger persons game. fair.

Also, I don't know that many 21 yr olds, my pro-cycling knowledge is being exposed as a mere arm-chair commentator, hahaha

Rog I know isn't young either and when he bows out I was more thinking about TJV, Sepp stood out, I don't want Wout to change what he's doing, and then (pre-Vin) it left me wondering who will step up. Foss nah, who else

Agree, Wout is Wout, he should not try to change & adapt to become a GC contender.

Vingegaard is the only option right now to take over from Rog, hopefully he can go on to do greater things, Jumbo Visma should however be looking at alternatives, me thinks ...