Tour de France 2024

[DieselnDust]

9 minutes ago, Bub Marley said:

I honestly do not understand UAE or Pogi for that matter. They are basically showing the world that they are scared of Jonas with these tactics. You’d think by now Pogi should know that he is not gonna put minutes in Jonas. I dont understand why he is attacking so early. Stop burning your teammates so early and keep them with you as long as possible. Why attack so far out? Jonas is the one that is a minute behind, let him do the work and then kill him at the end. 

 

I’m gonna go out on a limb and say that if Pogi doesn’t change his style, he’s gonna get smoked again by Jonas. He has so many climbing domestiques but is not using them correctly. When Yates stomps on that pedals, not many can keep the pace. They need to manage the situation better.

 

The one positive for Pogi though is he didn’t lose more time. Because lets be clear, his face today was a carbon copy of last years stage where he shipped minutes to Jonas as well as the year before when Roglic and Jonas double teamed him and he also lost big time. He was cooked today but he seemed to overcome it somehow. Now again, this wasn’t a high mountain stage so maybe not a fair comparison but he looked like he was on the verge of a complete bonk so kudos to him for keeping it together.

Pogi needs Alan Pieper back in the team car. I think i said this two years ago when he suffered his first defeat to Jonas. The tactics are not clever

[Bub Marley]

35 minutes ago, Jewbacca said:

We've only had 1 real mountain day, which Pog won and put all his time into the others.

Let's not jump the gun

And then lost all that time he gained on the next bump. I think he needs to show Jonas more respect personally but that’s just me. 

18 minutes ago, Mook said:

Agree with @Jewbacca

We forget that there is a team director calling the shots from the comfort of an airconditioned luxury team car. Whatever the Pog is doing surely happens with the blessing of his team leadership.

It is still early days in this tour. What you steal now, you have to repay later.

I don’t blame Pog. He’s a racer and his instinct is to race. It’s the team that needs to be smarter. And if it’s a case of him not listening then they need to get someone that he will listen to. That’s if they wanna win the tour. These tactics while it makes for great viewing ain’t gonna win him the tour. And this is proven the last 2 years. 

12 minutes ago, Meezo said:

and this is where i think most of the Pogi fans get it wrong...

the kid is a racer through and through... and he takes he's chances whenever there's an opportunity... on social media there's so much hate for Jonas and he's style... but as you put its the style that could potential snap the yellow jersey off Pogi and give Jonas his 3rd one

for the neutral this is an absolute spectacle. Pogi can keep grabbing wins to reel in that other guys record and Jonas will make the time when it counts in the alps.

I agree from a neutral it’s great viewing. But personally as a Pogi fan, I want him to win the tour and then go and do the vuelta and try and win all 3. So if he can just treat this like a 3 week tour and not a classics race it will benefit him. 

[Bub Marley]

I also think that if Jonas was not at his top level perhaps these tactics would work. But it’s quite clear now that Jonas is in top top shape. Show him the respect he deserves and make him do the chasing. 

[Jewbacca]

Just now, Bub Marley said:

I also think that if Jonas was not at his top level perhaps these tactics would work. But it’s quite clear now that Jonas is in top top shape. Show him the respect he deserves and make him do the chasing. 

We don't really know who is in 'top shape' yet though. It's as clear as mud

Drawing conclusions after 1 mountain stage 2 days into week 2 is folly.

I can not ride for 4 months and 'fake it' for 50km and explode gloriously after that. We honestly have absolutely no insight into how Jonas is going to hold up into week 3 or just how much fatigue Pog is dealing with after his season so far.

It is entertaining as hell though, which is the reason sport exists. To entertain us.

Realising we all know less than Jon Snow and Manuel combined is a good place to just sit back and enjoy. 

 

[splat]

1 hour ago, Mook said:

Agree with @Jewbacca

We forget that there is a team director calling the shots from the comfort of an airconditioned luxury team car. Whatever the Pog is doing surely happens with the blessing of his team leadership.

It is still early days in this tour. What you steal now, you have to repay later.

The Tour is very different to the Giro.
He ran amok with impunity there.
I'm sure that the team talks on the bus and in the car are pretty interesting.

[peepeekaitjie]

54 minutes ago, Jewbacca said:

Are you Autistic?

 

are you a doctor?

[Underachiever]

41 minutes ago, Bub Marley said:

And then lost all that time he gained on the next bump. I think he needs to show Jonas more respect personally but that’s just me. 

I don’t blame Pog. He’s a racer and his instinct is to race. It’s the team that needs to be smarter. And if it’s a case of him not listening then they need to get someone that he will listen to. That’s if they wanna win the tour. These tactics while it makes for great viewing ain’t gonna win him the tour. And this is proven the last 2 years. 

I agree from a neutral it’s great viewing. But personally as a Pogi fan, I want him to win the tour and then go and do the vuelta and try and win all 3. So if he can just treat this like a 3 week tour and not a classics race it will benefit him. 

All of this, the physical, but also the mental and strategic battles, makes for a stunning, stunning war across 3 weeks!!  

Only the very best cream will rise to the top, which is not necessarily the guy with the strongest legs.  Personally I think UAE placed Pogi on a pedestal after the very impressive Giro, and think that he was unbeatable.  AND him mental coach also TOLD HIM SO!!

His body language at the interview yesterday was interesting - he lost his that air of invincibility.

BTW... 

My heart want Pogi to go on a win all 3... but there are good reasons on why the Giro-Tour double is so difficult 

[Underachiever]

4 minutes ago, peepeekaitjie said:

are you a doctor?

You two......One day to Friday........

[Mountain Bru]

1 hour ago, Bub Marley said:

I honestly do not understand UAE or Pogi for that matter. They are basically showing the world that they are scared of Jonas with these tactics. You’d think by now Pogi should know that he is not gonna put minutes in Jonas. I dont understand why he is attacking so early. Stop burning your teammates so early and keep them with you as long as possible. Why attack so far out? Jonas is the one that is a minute behind, let him do the work and then kill him at the end. 

 

I’m gonna go out on a limb and say that if Pogi doesn’t change his style, he’s gonna get smoked again by Jonas. He has so many climbing domestiques but is not using them correctly. When Yates stomps on that pedals, not many can keep the pace. They need to manage the situation better.

 

The one positive for Pogi though is he didn’t lose more time. Because lets be clear, his face today was a carbon copy of last years stage where he shipped minutes to Jonas as well as the year before when Roglic and Jonas double teamed him and he also lost big time. He was cooked today but he seemed to overcome it somehow. Now again, this wasn’t a high mountain stage so maybe not a fair comparison but he looked like he was on the verge of a complete bonk so kudos to him for keeping it together.

I think you need to consider that Jonas and Pogi are not like-for-like GC contenders. According to PCS, Jonas is 58kg - a pure climber with a diminutive physique, and a big engine that can hold high W/kg for a long time. Basically, he's a big diesel engine in a small body, like a Nissan Champ with a 2 litre diesel. Not the most powerful or punchy engine, but the power-to-weight ratio is unbelievable.  

Pogi on the other hand is 66kg on PCS. He's more like an Amarok with a V6. Way heavier, but also more raw power and punch. An 8kg difference is massive. At 6.8W/kg, Jonas would be at 394w, while Pogi would need to be at 449w. 

So considering this, it's advantage Jonas on anything long and steep where his lower weight and ability to hold high W/kg for 30min plus come into play. But on shallower gradients where weight isn't as much of a factor, it's advantage Pogi. On short, steep gradients, it's advantage Pogi again as he has a far better punch than Jonas, and can basically just use raw power to overcome his weight disadvantage for a short time, usually to get over the top of a climb a few seconds ahead of Jonas. And then on descents, advantage Pogi again- 8kg makes a huge difference. He's taken more time on Jonas on descents than on climbs in this tour.

So given their respective advantages and disadvantages, Pogi's tactics make perfect sense. He knows he'll probably lose some time to Jonas in the Pyrenees, so he's trying to build a buffer on the terrain where he has an advantage and gain bonus seconds where he can. Conversely, Jonas is trying to limit his losses on the terrain that doesn't suit him.

This tour is so perfectly balanced, and it might come down to the TT on the last stage, which I think Jonas is going to smash seen as Stage 19 and 20 are stinkers, much like stage 14 and 15 last year before the Stage 16 TT where he took 1:38 on Pogi in 22km.

[Mountain Bru]

1 hour ago, Bub Marley said:

I honestly do not understand UAE or Pogi for that matter. They are basically showing the world that they are scared of Jonas with these tactics. You’d think by now Pogi should know that he is not gonna put minutes in Jonas. I dont understand why he is attacking so early. Stop burning your teammates so early and keep them with you as long as possible. Why attack so far out? Jonas is the one that is a minute behind, let him do the work and then kill him at the end. 

 

I’m gonna go out on a limb and say that if Pogi doesn’t change his style, he’s gonna get smoked again by Jonas. He has so many climbing domestiques but is not using them correctly. When Yates stomps on that pedals, not many can keep the pace. They need to manage the situation better.

 

The one positive for Pogi though is he didn’t lose more time. Because lets be clear, his face today was a carbon copy of last years stage where he shipped minutes to Jonas as well as the year before when Roglic and Jonas double teamed him and he also lost big time. He was cooked today but he seemed to overcome it somehow. Now again, this wasn’t a high mountain stage so maybe not a fair comparison but he looked like he was on the verge of a complete bonk so kudos to him for keeping it together.

Concerning UAE's tactics, I think the way they've used Yates is pretty optimal too. There haven't been any HC climbs or 30 min efforts yet, with most of the climbs only lasting 10 or 12 minutes.

They use Sivakov, Almeida and Ayuso to set a hard tempo from the base to line things out and prevent attacks. Yates then takes over with 5 or 6 minutes to go, and stomps hard. This drops most of the group, and makes sure there are no domestiques left in the chase group (NB for the descent). Pogi then attacks with around 2 minutes to go to gap Jonas at the top of the climb, and then uses his descending advantage to open the gap to Jonas. 

Realistically, the climbs haven't been long enough to warrant full mountain trains, and at the same time, I'm not sure Almeida and Ayuso would be able to trouble Jonas, Roglic or Evenepoel if they're in the wheel, so having them pace for longer on a 12 minute climb just leaves less time for Pogi to attack.

Wellens and Pollit sitting on the front all day is irrelevant in my opinion. Those guys can do 400w for the entire day without breaking a sweat, so I don't see anything wrong with the way they've used them.  

Edited July 11 by Mountain Bru

[Meezo]

https://www.instagram.com/reel/C9Q9Xkhy-4B/?igsh=YzU0ZXBsbjhhNnM5

[Vetplant]

26 minutes ago, Underachiever said:

You two......One day to Friday........

Or, take it to the Private Messages.

The rest of us on this thread aren't interested.

[TheoG]

The one big disappointment for me so far is Jay Hindley.  He provide zero support for Primoz at this stage anyway .... 😔

[Underachiever]

37 minutes ago, TheoG said:

The one big disappointment for me so far is Jay Hindley.  He provide zero support for Primoz at this stage anyway .... 😔

Primoz's best support will be to add 2x training wheels to his bike....  Perhaps not aero, but will save him minutes....

[Irvin85]

2 hours ago, Bub Marley said:

I also think that if Jonas was not at his top level perhaps these tactics would work. But it’s quite clear now that Jonas is in top top shape. Show him the respect he deserves and make him do the chasing. 

Tough one, I still do not think Jonas is at 100%, if he was he would have continued on the climb when he caught Pogi and gapped him, instead he rode onto his wheel and sat there for a while. He might be riding it a bit smarter and saving some energy, knowing that he would not gain a lot on the stage anyways. 

Exciting weekend ahead with some big mountains to climb

[TheoG]

9 minutes ago, Underachiever said:

Primoz's best support will be to add 2x training wheels to his bike....  Perhaps not aero, but will save him minutes....

Yip, he can really stop falling now .... 🙈