Jewbacca Posted January 9 Share 1 minute ago, IceCreamMan said: Surf board industry indicates huge growth in the coming years 😂 even bigger growth than the cycling industry.  Have a groovy day. Yet the industry itself, pro tour, QT etc is in absolute disarray. A majority of the companies that make up the backbone of the industry are really struggling. It is the exact reason I used that example and said as much. 16 minutes ago, Jewbacca said: Surfboards and apparel are still being sold in volumes, but the real world impact of that shift left thousands unemployed globally Reading beyond the stats and projection and actually looking at WHO and WHAT is providing the numbers is my entire point. I guess this is a similar scenario to a big chain company. After closing down 6 stores and leaving 500 people without jobs, the financial analyst in his booth says 'numbers are balanced'. While that may be true statistically, it doesn't look at the real world situation. 9 minutes ago, IceCreamMan said:  Have a groovy day. You too IceCreamMan 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IceCreamMan Posted January 9 Share 45 minutes ago, Jewbacca said: Yet the industry itself, pro tour, QT etc is in absolute disarray. A majority of the companies that make up the backbone of the industry are really struggling. It is the exact reason I used that example and said as much. Reading beyond the stats and projection and actually looking at WHO and WHAT is providing the numbers is my entire point. I guess this is a similar scenario to a big chain company. After closing down 6 stores and leaving 500 people without jobs, the financial analyst in his booth says 'numbers are balanced'. While that may be true statistically, it doesn't look at the real world situation. You too I reckon the surf board industry and the cycling industry will self correct in time. Both are healthy Outdoor activities and esp in the west where we are getting more downtime and have higher disposable income they will flourish. Which sector of the market is the most profitable will determine where the focus lies. There will however always be the niche suppliers.  the golf industry as an example is always on an upward trajectory even though no one I know plays golf, its demise has been predicted for decades yet here we are.  edit: as a side note and one that surprised me, UK has a huge surfing industry, was completely gobsmacked when I first moved here.   Edited January 9 by IceCreamMan Danger Dassie, Jewbacca and BigDL 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dubber Posted January 9 Share 8 hours ago, IceCreamMan said: Let’s acknowledge that the Covid peaks were artificially created. Let’s also acknowledge that bicycle and component manufacturers were aware that it would be just that but chose to up production to meet that demand. Let’s also acknowledge that these manufacturers were well aware that it would result in a period of lesser demand and that they knowing this chose to step up production for the short term gains.  the stats are projections yes, but these are carefully analysed and thought out stats and these indicate an increase. For sure one MUST cater for inflation but even then the cycling industry is NOT doomed. Far from it , and just the opposite. Millions and millions of bicycles are going to be sold and used . The first world in Europe is embracing non fossil fuelled transport.   wiggle/crc which this thread is based on was making LOSSES, huge losses even before Covid. It is/was a doomed model irrespective of Brexit or Covid or any other factor. It was a bad business. Bad businesses fail, even in boom times.  Evan’s cycling was closing stores here in 2017 and 2018 as well.  the hub and I dare say the American market are probably focussed on LSM 9 and 10 products and this niche might be in trouble for a while.. I think I conceded that previously but the cycling industry is certainly NOT in decline or going bust. Far from it.   Orange bicycles is a high end British made brand with a cult following. It’s in trouble like many British manufacturing businesses but we all know how British manufacturing businesses have gone in the past. It will survive I suspect. remember Nokia, brilliant business, cell phone market was booming, yet they essentially failed and failed to capitalise. Was it due to the market? No. Was it due to their business model and products? Absolutely yes.  excess stock was foreseen, it’s a temporary situation, capitalise on it. I have. The bicycle market extends far beyond our fancy carbon frames and dual sus bikes. Let’s acknowledge that too. Watch the big tours this year, they will be well supported, the manufacturers will be spending on advertising etc. and those consumers with the means will buy the latest 13 gear group set that changes via thought control. That particular niche will survive too   I don't disagree with any of the points here. But I do think, in the context of this discussion being on TheHub, my interpretation of 'the cycling industry' is different to yours.  While I can't speak for everyone here, given the post is on a forum where the majority of readers would consider any bike with less than 21 gears and coil shock entry level, lumping mass produced commuters et al into the discussion is out of context (for the original discussion) imho. Not incorrect, but out of context... Anyway, no use flogging a dead horse... An observation from across the seas here in the USA (which you may or may not be seeing in UK/SA yet): The rise of the e-bike has been staggering over the last 12 months. I'd say, 50% of our neighborhood has at least 1 ebike in the household now compared to nothing 12 / 18 months ago. Parent's that would normally buy a $150 'scott' entry level MTB for their kids school commute are now buying $400/$500 no name ebikes. The rise has been exponential. Tying this back into the original thread: the vast majority of these bikes are no name brands sold on online retailers. Very few are typical 'big name' bike brands bought through your LBS. So yes, lots of $'s being spent on bikes, but little going to your typical LBS and even less going to the traditional bike bike brands.   I have no idea actual margins on these bikes and may simply be a case of loss leaders and hoping to make money on replacement batteries? (Razor blade strategy)... See image attached - 1800+ sold in the last month just on these two versions. To re-iterate the point, yes, all these sales go into your 'cycling industry' stats. But again, I can't speak for everyone on the TheHub' but I doubt these would be on any Hub Member shopping list....  All about context I guess...   ChrisF, IceCreamMan and BigDL 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisF Posted January 9 Share 17 minutes ago, Dubber said: I don't disagree with any of the points here. But I do think, in the context of this discussion being on TheHub, my interpretation of 'the cycling industry' is different to yours.  While I can't speak for everyone here, given the post is on a forum where the majority of readers would consider any bike with less than 21 gears and coil shock entry level, lumping mass produced commuters et al into the discussion is out of context (for the original discussion) imho. Not incorrect, but out of context... Anyway, no use flogging a dead horse... An observation from across the seas here in the USA (which you may or may not be seeing in UK/SA yet): The rise of the e-bike has been staggering over the last 12 months. I'd say, 50% of our neighborhood has at least 1 ebike in the household now compared to nothing 12 / 18 months ago. Parent's that would normally buy a $150 'scott' entry level MTB for their kids school commute are now buying $400/$500 no name ebikes. The rise has been exponential. Tying this back into the original thread: the vast majority of these bikes are no name brands sold on online retailers. Very few are typical 'big name' bike brands bought through your LBS. So yes, lots of $'s being spent on bikes, but little going to your typical LBS and even less going to the traditional bike bike brands.   I have no idea actual margins on these bikes and may simply be a case of loss leaders and hoping to make money on replacement batteries? (Razor blade strategy)... See image attached - 1800+ sold in the last month just on these two versions. To re-iterate the point, yes, all these sales go into your 'cycling industry' stats. But again, I can't speak for everyone on the TheHub' but I doubt these would be on any Hub Member shopping list....  All about context I guess...    My neighbour bought something like the Jetson (foldable e-bike) last month. He was looking for something that could fold up VERY small, to fit inside the camper. I was surprised just how many outlets there are in SA for these types of bikes !!! (no idea of the volumes...)  The hardtail type e-commuter is certainly gaining popularity in SA. LOTS of adds for these all over, both at shops and on verious social media adds.  Certainly a strong move away from the traditional bike shops, to alternate sources to buying bikes.   As for the higher end e-bikes and full suspension e-bikes .... drastic increase in the numbers on our trails !! Even a Tesla charging station for ebikes at the Bloemendal trail head   All that said, commuting by bicycle remains a very small segment in SA.    The one thing I am (sadly) seeing a LOT of lately is these e-scateboard scooter things .... OFTEN used as commuting devices .... IN traffic, and on the roads (not on pavements).  Well worth noting that most stats includes these things in "e-bike sales", thus it gets added to "bike sales"    Would be interesting at the END of 2024 to see the REAL SALES STATS (not predictions). But with the splintering of the supply chains, I doubt we will see the real picture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IceCreamMan Posted January 9 Share 42 minutes ago, Dubber said: I don't disagree with any of the points here. But I do think, in the context of this discussion being on TheHub, my interpretation of 'the cycling industry' is different to yours.  While I can't speak for everyone here, given the post is on a forum where the majority of readers would consider any bike with less than 21 gears and coil shock entry level, lumping mass produced commuters et al into the discussion is out of context (for the original discussion) imho. Not incorrect, but out of context... Anyway, no use flogging a dead horse... An observation from across the seas here in the USA (which you may or may not be seeing in UK/SA yet): The rise of the e-bike has been staggering over the last 12 months. I'd say, 50% of our neighborhood has at least 1 ebike in the household now compared to nothing 12 / 18 months ago. Parent's that would normally buy a $150 'scott' entry level MTB for their kids school commute are now buying $400/$500 no name ebikes. The rise has been exponential. Tying this back into the original thread: the vast majority of these bikes are no name brands sold on online retailers. Very few are typical 'big name' bike brands bought through your LBS. So yes, lots of $'s being spent on bikes, but little going to your typical LBS and even less going to the traditional bike bike brands.   I have no idea actual margins on these bikes and may simply be a case of loss leaders and hoping to make money on replacement batteries? (Razor blade strategy)... See image attached - 1800+ sold in the last month just on these two versions. To re-iterate the point, yes, all these sales go into your 'cycling industry' stats. But again, I can't speak for everyone on the TheHub' but I doubt these would be on any Hub Member shopping list....  All about context I guess...   E-bikes big business here. Average age increasing, one in 4 over 60 years old. Reducing dependency on fossil fuel transport etc. my local Giant shop reckons e bikes is the jam of his business. The landscape is changing. I dare say the demographics of Hub members is changing too.  I certainly take yr point regarding the cycling activities of the hub. BigDL and Zebra 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dubber Posted January 9 Share 1 hour ago, ChrisF said:  The one thing I am (sadly) seeing a LOT of lately is these e-scateboard scooter things .... OFTEN used as commuting devices .... IN traffic, and on the roads (not on pavements).  Those things are menace 😂. They all over the place here. Available as short term rentals all over the cities... A few of the school kids in our area also have them - and not the cheap 5 mph versions, the unlimited 30 mph versions (and the one wheelers)! It's going to end badly. Fortunately, most parents perceive the danger and are going with ebikes. Obviously any self propelled vehicle has inherit risks, but I think ebikes slightly less so? Maybe not.  Ironically, the vast majority of parents that get their kids ebikes enforce the use of helmets and other protection, but those whose kids that get 'scooters' seldom seem to enforce helmets.  45 minutes ago, IceCreamMan said: E-bikes big business here. Average age increasing, one in 4 over 60 years old. Reducing dependency on fossil fuel transport etc.. Agreed! When I refer to my neighborhood, Id say it is predominately older - empty nesters or soon to be empty nesters. Most of these households hadn't bought a bike in the last 10 years no doubt. Either had an old clunker gathering dust in the garage or nothing at all. Now they all out buying ebikes. I don't think they using them as a commuter in most cases - more recreational. But there are a bunch of tax incentives and rebates for e-bike purchases (on the premise that you do use it as a commuter), which is facilitating additional Ebike purchases. $1.8 million for Colorado for 2024... There are restrictions on who can apply for these rebates, but more interestingly there are limitations on the type of bike you can purchase. A large percentage of the traditional bike manufactures are eliminated by these restrictions (top speed, power of battery, full suspension mtb etc). Again impacting what we see as traditional cycling resellers... https://energyoffice.colorado.gov/ebike-rebates  ChrisF 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigDL Posted February 1 Share Stopped in at the Chain Reaction Retail Store yesterday to say cheers to a couple of the guys there that I have dealt with on and off over the years. The store is in "everything must go" mode, although 99% of stuff is gone already. A few components and clothes at 80% discount in a couple of areas and maybe 4 or 5 bikes for sale at 60% discount. Was reminiscing about what a part CRC played in the promotion of mountain biking in Ireland. Sponsorships of trail centres and riders, support for community groups etc. the public used to be able to go up to their warehouse in the old days pre new retail store and there was always someone to fetch items for you to look at, try on etc. Really weird to not have them in Northern Ireland now in any way. When the merger happened, the owners received significant cash as part of the deal, so at least they got the benefit of their work I suppose.  Dexter-morgan, splat and Jewbacca 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisF Posted February 11 Share https://road.cc/content/news/2023-saw-worst-bicycle-sales-uk-1985-306667 IceCreamMan 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jewbacca Posted February 11 Share 1 hour ago, ChrisF said: https://road.cc/content/news/2023-saw-worst-bicycle-sales-uk-1985-306667 ssshhhhh It's not real! IceCreamMan, MORNE and ChrisF 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisF Posted February 11 Share Jokes aside, our very own economy on this tip of Africa is in a very fragile state .... Â One of our large partners are now turning over 20% of what they used to .... now in that phase where the lucky ones gets paid on 90 days .... Â Looking around, many of the large construction companies are in the same boat.... Â Â Sure, there are more interest in new projects .... but it takes years for these to turn into cash flow .... Danger Dassie and IceCreamMan 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IceCreamMan Posted February 11 Share UK is but a relatively small market.  but seeing as we on this chestnut again, let’s allay Jewbaccas fears and assure the sky ain’t falling. Stand tall, don’t blink.  https://www.cognitivemarketresearch.com/bicycle-market-report Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dexterdent Posted February 12 Share I used CRC/Wiggle quite a few times for things I could not get locally so I was pretty sad when they stopped taking our orders as it was always a smooth and fast delivery process, often under a week. Tried Merlin this time and 3 weeks later I think my package might be at a post office somewhere, so who knows if it still exists. betaboy, Zebra and ChrisF 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iwan Kemp Posted February 12 Share 16 hours ago, IceCreamMan said: UK is but a relatively small market.  but seeing as we on this chestnut again, let’s allay Jewbaccas fears and assure the sky ain’t falling. Stand tall, don’t blink.  https://www.cognitivemarketresearch.com/bicycle-market-report 👆 Forecast 👇Reality Schwalbe, citing a 'tense situation' in industry, consolidates production in Vietnam https://www.bicycleretailer.com/international/2024/01/18/schwalbe-citing-tense-situation-industry-consolidates-production-vietnam  Scott Sports next to get multi-million loan from owner [to cover operational costs] https://www.bike-eu.com/46756/scott-sports-next-to-get-multi-million-loan-from-owner?giftCode=GHyB3XTUDjs4YcsNQI06aDsYlf-3N1lqXjM0GThYpZhP6KbZYSOB7RTvVgTaJVop&social=copy  Discounting raises Canyon’s sales by 23% but sparks a €2m million loss https://www.cyclingnews.com/news/discounting-raises-canyons-sales-by-23-but-sparks-a-13-million-euro-loss/  BMC applies for government assistance as cycling brands continue to suffer https://www.cyclingnews.com/news/bmc-applies-for-government-assistance-as-cycling-brands-continue-to-suffer/  Zwift co-CEO resigns amid fresh round of workforce layoffs https://www.cyclingnews.com/news/zwift-co-ceo-resigns-amid-fresh-workforce-reduction/ Thule Q4 net sales drop 5%; 2023 sales decline 10% https://www.bicycleretailer.com/industry-news/2024/02/09/thule-q4-net-sales-drop-5-2023-sales-decline-10  GoPro Q4 and 2023 revenues each decrease 8% https://www.bicycleretailer.com/industry-news/2024/02/07/gopro-q4-and-2023-revenues-each-decrease-8  MIPS fourth-quarter and yearly net sales down despite bike helmet growth https://www.bicycleretailer.com/industry-news/2024/02/08/mips-fourth-quarter-and-yearly-net-sales-down-despite-bike-helmet-growth  Peloton share price plummets as brand looks to 'stop the bleeding' https://www.cyclingnews.com/news/whats-happening-at-peloton/ I'd like to point out that those are all fairly fresh, actual reports on facts. Add that to all the other links already shared. To quote a wiseman: one cannot argue the data, but one should the interpretation. Next year statisticians will look back at the end of 2023 and 2024 as a year of good sales in terms of numbers and will base forecasts on that, what they will fail to pick up in those numbers is the sheer boatload of bikes sold at cost or even below cost just to move them. That is not the sign of a healthy global or local economy. Also, some brands will see growth due to others failing, again, those numbers won't tell the full story. Covid taught us a valuable lesson: foresight is better than forecast - even more so in a world changing as rapidly as the one we inhabit. ChrisF, BigDL, Danger Dassie and 3 others 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Ouzo Posted February 12 Share 23 hours ago, ChrisF said: Jokes aside, our very own economy on this tip of Africa is in a very fragile state .... Â One of our large partners are now turning over 20% of what they used to .... now in that phase where the lucky ones gets paid on 90 days .... Â Looking around, many of the large construction companies are in the same boat.... Â Â Sure, there are more interest in new projects .... but it takes years for these to turn into cash flow .... My wife works for one of the large international Audit firms, the africa division has just started the process of culling about 30% of their workforce in SA. IceCreamMan, ChrisF, betaboy and 1 other 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IceCreamMan Posted February 12 Share 20 minutes ago, Iwan Kemp said: 👆 Forecast 👇Reality Schwalbe, citing a 'tense situation' in industry, consolidates production in Vietnam https://www.bicycleretailer.com/international/2024/01/18/schwalbe-citing-tense-situation-industry-consolidates-production-vietnam  Scott Sports next to get multi-million loan from owner [to cover operational costs] https://www.bike-eu.com/46756/scott-sports-next-to-get-multi-million-loan-from-owner?giftCode=GHyB3XTUDjs4YcsNQI06aDsYlf-3N1lqXjM0GThYpZhP6KbZYSOB7RTvVgTaJVop&social=copy  Discounting raises Canyon’s sales by 23% but sparks a €2m million loss https://www.cyclingnews.com/news/discounting-raises-canyons-sales-by-23-but-sparks-a-13-million-euro-loss/  BMC applies for government assistance as cycling brands continue to suffer https://www.cyclingnews.com/news/bmc-applies-for-government-assistance-as-cycling-brands-continue-to-suffer/  Zwift co-CEO resigns amid fresh round of workforce layoffs https://www.cyclingnews.com/news/zwift-co-ceo-resigns-amid-fresh-workforce-reduction/ Thule Q4 net sales drop 5%; 2023 sales decline 10% https://www.bicycleretailer.com/industry-news/2024/02/09/thule-q4-net-sales-drop-5-2023-sales-decline-10  GoPro Q4 and 2023 revenues each decrease 8% https://www.bicycleretailer.com/industry-news/2024/02/07/gopro-q4-and-2023-revenues-each-decrease-8  MIPS fourth-quarter and yearly net sales down despite bike helmet growth https://www.bicycleretailer.com/industry-news/2024/02/08/mips-fourth-quarter-and-yearly-net-sales-down-despite-bike-helmet-growth  Peloton share price plummets as brand looks to 'stop the bleeding' https://www.cyclingnews.com/news/whats-happening-at-peloton/ I'd like to point out that those are all fairly fresh, actual reports on facts. Add that to all the other links already shared. To quote a wiseman: one cannot argue the data, but one should the interpretation. Next year statisticians will look back at the end of 2023 and 2024 as a year of good sales in terms of numbers and will base forecasts on that, what they will fail to pick up in those numbers is the sheer boatload of bikes sold at cost or even below cost just to move them. That is not the sign of a healthy global or local economy. Also, some brands will see growth due to others failing, again, those numbers won't tell the full story. Covid taught us a valuable lesson: foresight is better than forecast - even more so in a world changing as rapidly as the one we inhabit. The rush during covid caused many problems for sure.  the bicycle manufacture industry is going nowhere.  the article that kicked off this round of debate painted a picture of woe for the uK. Yet we bought 1.5 million bicycles here in the last year. The bicycle industry is dead, long live the bicycle industry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IceCreamMan Posted February 12 Share 23 hours ago, ChrisF said: Jokes aside, our very own economy on this tip of Africa is in a very fragile state ....  One of our large partners are now turning over 20% of what they used to .... now in that phase where the lucky ones gets paid on 90 days ....  Looking around, many of the large construction companies are in the same boat....   Sure, there are more interest in new projects .... but it takes years for these to turn into cash flow .... Perfect storm. Money is tight, load shedding, corruption, incompetent politicians, radical motives.  of trump wins it’s going to get worse for za I reckon.  but that’s another thread. ChrisF 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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