Post Lockdown Strategy

[RocknRolla]

We need input from different socio-economic circles, we are speculating on what life in the burbs will be post lockdown. It certainly will be impacted. Bit call centres still need to operate, so do factories. 
Unemployments will be huge, meaning less money to roll into shops. Basic needs shopping does not happen at the corner spar, it happens in the townships at spaza shops.

 

in terms of “our” retail centre, i would strongly advise, looking at co-working spaces, but at a hugely reduced cost. To undercut the we-works of the world, but make it community based, cover wifi, and electricity, and some basic furnishings. Approach the government for some set-up funding, like an incubation hub.

 

make day-to day rentals an option for pop-up stores. 
 

people will find new creative ways of making a living, and this needs to be accommodated in new creative ways.

 

necessity is the mother of invention.

[flymango]

In my opinion, fundamentally, what we're seeing here is the unraveling of gearing. We can't keep consuming out of future income, based on debt/credit. The compounding effect of leverage is what we're being confronted with now, as aggregate demand falls off a cliff - due to COVID19. At a systemic and ideological level across the globe.

 

Gear up? Happy days. Gear down? Implosion. 

 

We need to critically understand what's happening in the real economy (i.e. the exchange of goods and services) versus the financial economy (i.e. the provision and pricing of debt and equity). And critically, environmental impact and sustainability.

 

This **** just got real.

 

Looking forward to following this thread.

[Patchelicious]

I am loving this thread so far. It proves a theory that there are many critical thinkers amongst us, but most with that ability and the intellect to support it, tend to keep their opinions to themselves mostly.

 

I’m looking forward to seeing RR’s ambitions, goals and outputs here. Even made the point of finishing Mark McCormacks book yesterday, just for this thread ????

[Chris_]

RR - I'm going to get my dumb question out of the way early on - but what is the question?

 

Perhaps we need some more narrowly defined items to unpack as we go along each day?

 

Some interesting posts have been made but I'm not clear on the (posters') goal yet. Perhaps its in the rules and I haven't approached this correctly, I'm just not sure.

 

(Also, you say the property is owned by 'us', who is us, do we have other properties, do we have other businesses, who do we work for, if anyone?)

[DJR]

I find rather complex questions like this one much easier to (try and) answer if I break it up into smaller bits:

 

1. What is needed to survive short term? Stuff I must do NOW to get through the next few weeks or months. 

2. What is needed to function as well as possible over the next year or two?

3. What is needed to flourish longer term?

 

Make sure that 1 doesn't poison 2 and 2 doesn't poison 3. Always keep 3 in the corner of your eye and don't get blinded by the urgency and the severity of 1.

Edited April 8, 2020 by DJR

[ACM]

I find rather complex questions like this one much easier to (try and) answer if I break it up into smaller bits:

 

1. What is needed to survive short term? Stuff I must do NOW to get through the next few weeks or months. 

2. What is needed to function as well as possible over the next year or two?

3. What is needed to flourish longer term?

 

Make sure that 1 doesn't poison 2 and 2 doesn't poison 3. Always keep 3 in the corner of your eye and don't get blinded by the urgency and the severity of 1.

 

Agree.  And such questions give guidance/direction.  Another question for me (to this line) is what is the shareholder vision/strategy?  Example, are they only in it to make money or do they need to make money for further business growth/expansion OR are they a "charity" and give profits away to others.  These makes a difference (to me) - and ultimately a management team/board is there for the interest of the shareholders (obviously within the legal/governance/legislation, etc.). 

 

BUT... by RR's posts I sense that this "us"/Company/Shareholders has altruism and this is not a case of "die een se dood is die ander se brood".

[RocknRolla]

Agree.  And such questions give guidance/direction.  Another question for me (to this line) is what is the shareholder vision/strategy?  Example, are they only in it to make money or do they need to make money for further business growth/expansion OR are they a "charity" and give profits away to others.  These makes a difference (to me) - and ultimately a management team/board is there for the interest of the shareholders (obviously within the legal/governance/legislation, etc.). 

 

BUT... by RR's posts I sense that this "us"/Company/Shareholders has altruism and this is not a case of "die een se dood is die ander se brood".

 

 

We can only hope, as a greater society, that this will change the focus of the "single squirrel who gathers all the nuts", to a more socially acceptable cohesion, "for the greater good" type of strategy.

 

For now, at least.

 

Humans are quick to forget the pain and the struggle when things are going well, and are "normal". There are lessons to be learned from every situation of strife, and it needs to change us for the better.

[ACM]

We can only hope, as a greater society, that this will change the focus of the "single squirrel who gathers all the nuts", to a more socially acceptable cohesion, "for the greater good" type of strategy.

 

For now, at least.

 

Humans are quick to forget the pain and the struggle when things are going well, and are "normal". There are lessons to be learned from every situation of strife, and it needs to change us for the better.

 

Agree and hope for the same greater society... however, the only way to predict the future is looking at past behavior and that (from the "majority" shareholders) doesn't paint a pretty picture :-(   I hope I'm wrong.

[River Rat]

RR - I'm going to get my dumb question out of the way early on - but what is the question?

 

Perhaps we need some more narrowly defined items to unpack as we go along each day?

 

Some interesting posts have been made but I'm not clear on the (posters') goal yet. Perhaps its in the rules and I haven't approached this correctly, I'm just not sure.

 

(Also, you say the property is owned by 'us', who is us, do we have other properties, do we have other businesses, who do we work for, if anyone?)

The question is simple we need to present our strategy to the bank to renegotiate the terms of our loans. We are purely focused on this business only, my ulterior motive is to demonstrate scenario planning as a tool for any business and hopefully this will help us all through these uncertain times.

[River Rat]

I find rather complex questions like this one much easier to (try and) answer if I break it up into smaller bits:

 

1. What is needed to survive short term? Stuff I must do NOW to get through the next few weeks or months. 

2. What is needed to function as well as possible over the next year or two?

3. What is needed to flourish longer term?

 

Make sure that 1 doesn't poison 2 and 2 doesn't poison 3. Always keep 3 in the corner of your eye and don't get blinded by the urgency and the severity of 1.

The idea of scenario planning is to try and provide some guidance to the questions you pose with recognition of the uncertainty that confronts us.

[River Rat]

Agree.  And such questions give guidance/direction.  Another question for me (to this line) is what is the shareholder vision/strategy?  Example, are they only in it to make money or do they need to make money for further business growth/expansion OR are they a "charity" and give profits away to others.  These makes a difference (to me) - and ultimately a management team/board is there for the interest of the shareholders (obviously within the legal/governance/legislation, etc.). 

 

BUT... by RR's posts I sense that this "us"/Company/Shareholders has altruism and this is not a case of "die een se dood is die ander se brood".

The idea of this thread is to make this business a proxy for all other businesses and to keep it real at this stage the shareholders recognize that if they don't address the loan issue first they will lose their investment and this will be their last dividend. They're business people and not a charity they want to make money now and in the future.

[River Rat]

Agree and hope for the same greater society... however, the only way to predict the future is looking at past behavior and that (from the "majority" shareholders) doesn't paint a pretty picture :-(   I hope I'm wrong.

The one thing we are starting to see is that the past won't be a sure predictor of the future. Everyone from Government, to Shareholders to employees are recognizing that there is a new reality emerging. What we are doing here is trying to layout what that new reality could look like and plan accordingly.

 

If it makes you feel any better, of the 4 organisations I chair 3 of them have decided not to pay a dividend but to use the cash to keep the ship afloat. The 4th is a NGO so the dividend question is not an issue at all. In the case of the 3 all the directors are shareholders so it's effectively the owners making the sacrifice and it is not a hard sell at all.

[Benjamin]

Closely following the loan negotiations with the bank, next priority to me is  tenant stability. The tenants are our customers, and without them our business got no income . So we need to communicate with them and quickly put in place strategies to help them stay as tenants . This isn’t a time as landlords to be putting undue squeeze on our customers .

 

As a landlord, are we part of any national property forum or association ? There have been recent announcements from major players that we may need to follow.

[River Rat]

Closely following the loan negotiations with the bank, next priority to me is  tenant stability. The tenants are our customers, and without them our business got no income . So we need to communicate with them and quickly put in place strategies to help them stay as tenants . This isn’t a time as landlords to be putting undue squeeze on our customers .

 

As a landlord, are we part of any national property forum or association ? There have been recent announcements from major players that we may need to follow.

Hold that thought for when we start talking about options in step 3. As for the property forum remember this is a fictional business and I have tried to structure it in a manner that allows us to make inputs and decisions without looking for guidance from a third party, so no we're not members. However, your point is absolutely valid in a real scenario a national forum would be vital to creating industry wide initiatives.

[River Rat]

Interesting to see how some of our earlier discussion is playing out in real life.

https://www.fin24.com/Companies/Retail/life-after-lockdown-a-steep-climb-for-shopping-malls-20200403

Edited April 8, 2020 by River Rat

[Shebeen]

Did I miss the meeting?