Is the 2nd hand market dead?

[Jacko18]

12 minutes ago, Shebeen said:

Ja, well no fine. It's your thread, bit odd if you don't want to participate in it.

You try to insult me, and then expect me to entertain you?

Sure, let's have a civil conversation. But not if you try insult me.  Well done on turning a fun chat into your bullying room. Or at least trying.  

[MTBRIDER1234]

39 minutes ago, Shebeen said:

Give him a bit of space, he's gone back to his extensive supply and demand curves to come educate the trolls.

Dude you started this by just being an asshole.

I wasn't looking for an argument, so I am not sure why you are attacking people. If it gives you joy then go to twitter, where you can congregate with your fellow brainless idiots.

[Jacko18]

4 minutes ago, MTBRIDER1234 said:

Dude you started this by just being an asshole.

I wasn't looking for an argument, so I am not sure why you are attacking people. If it gives you joy then go to twitter, where you can congregate with your fellow brainless idiots.

Shebeen is clearly just on here to be mean to others.  

[MTBRIDER1234]

2 hours ago, Shebeen said:

You should ask for a refund on the money you paid for your economics studies then.

The key point is you battling to sell something for what you think it's worth. There is a disconnect there, textbook.

 

 

The main factor is that there was very little demand, which then lead to it being sold for a steal. I was saying that there is quite a bit more supply than demand currently, as otherwise bikes would be selling much faster. 

I am not keen to argue with you. All I ask for is to speak respectfully to others.

Edited May 10, 2023 by MTBRIDER1234

[Sprockets]

I think a lot of people are holding back on buying toys, or excessive toys and investing on power supplies or solar 

[Pandatron]

I track the 2nd hand mtb market on the price levels of the specialized epic...Welcome to my TedTalk

[The Ouzo]

6 minutes ago, Sprockets said:

I think a lot of people are holding back on buying toys, or excessive toys and investing on power supplies or solar 

Not just toys. We've seen it in the car industry, between the interest rate hikes and having to go solar, people are making do with what they have for much longer than they used to.

[LazyTrailRider]

I’ll let all the economists here know what the reality turns out to be. 

Going to put 2x bikes on the market in the next two weeks, a 2021 model for R95k, and a 2022 for R65k.

Edited May 10, 2023 by LazyTrailRider
Typo

[Matt]

Is the second hand market dead? No, but it is slowing after an over-heated 2020/2021 where demand was high and new supply was scarce. 

We've got some very blunt, but reliable data to look at that paints a picture of supply & demand on Bike Hub. 

Supply (sort-of): New ads created per month (excludes re-listed ads in a given month)



Demand: Unique leads created per month

 

New ads created per month is slowing steadily, but the level of interest in ads (contact made with sellers dropped off considerably after Q1 2022. 

Not dead, but slowing. And there's much talk of over-supply of new bikes in the pipelines + slow moving stock already on shop floors and in warehouses. That will put more pressure on the secondhand market if prices of new bikes are discounted to move stock. A reverse on what we saw in 2020/2021.

Will it kill the second hand market? I wouldn't say so, especially not if you're a buyer with further pressure on prices.
 

 

 

[Jewbacca]

Death to the Market! Long live the Market!

[Shebeen]

1 minute ago, Matt said:

Is the second hand market dead? No, but it is slowing after an over-heated 2020/2021 where demand was high and new supply was scarce. 

We've got some very blunt, but reliable data to look at that paints a picture of supply & demand on Bike Hub. 

Supply (sort-of): New ads created per month (excludes re-listed ads in a given month)



Demand: Unique leads created per month

 

New ads created per month is slowing steadily, but the level of interest in ads (contact made with sellers dropped off considerably after Q1 2022. 

Not dead, but slowing. And there's much talk of over-supply of new bikes in the pipelines + slow moving stock already on shop floors and in warehouses. That will put more pressure on the secondhand market if prices of new bikes are discounted to move stock. A reverse on what we saw in 2020/2021.

Will it kill the second hand market? I wouldn't say so, especially not if you're a buyer with further pressure on prices.
 

 

 

Awesome, some actual data!

Even more blunt, but more valuable would be actual sales price.

This is hard to do, as it would require actual seller reporting, or tracking listed price Vs time to sell etc. But if you have enough samples then you would get trends.

 

 

Or you could just use the bikehub pay data and extrapolate that to the rest of the listings. I would see this as valuable to the actual industry players (bike distributors), BH should be selling this.

[Bub Marley]

Last I checked, today was Wednesday. 

 

Cmon guys. You should know better and leave threads like this for Froiday please.

[Shebeen]

54 minutes ago, MTBRIDER1234 said:

The main factor is that there was very little demand, which then lead to it being sold for a steal. I was saying that there is quite a bit more supply than demand currently, as otherwise bikes would be selling much faster. 

I am not keen to argue with you. All I ask for is to speak respectfully to others.

I'm not sure if you're more miffed about my tone or the fact that you were wrong. I can't really help you with the first, I don't think I was too obnoxious and we are on internet after all.

The second one, unfortunately, is still the case going on this reply. I'm not sure what you meant by extensive study of supply/demand laws but we're seeing a basic case of it in action here. Items are not going for a "steal", they are going for what they are worth. The fact that market has moved the value to a different number to what you think it is worth shows that it is following these basic principles.

[Sandro]

Personally I see it being a good time to buy, not to sell. Some big discounts on new bikes out there making selling secondhand more difficult. 

[Shebeen]

1 hour ago, MTBRIDER1234 said:

Dude you started this by just being an asshole.

I wasn't looking for an argument, so I am not sure why you are attacking people. If it gives you joy then go to twitter, where you can congregate with your fellow brainless idiots.

So you've now called me a troll, an asshole, immature, childish and a brainless idiot.

I've only attacked your thinking, (which is wrong). Maybe I was a bit mean to call you out when you claimed to be an expert, but back it up then!

 

 

 

[The Ouzo]

All I'm seeing is the same sort of to and fro between new and used that the car market sees.

Used prices start to climb when new vehicles stock or pricing is an issue. the price difference between new and used gets less. It then becomes more attractive to buy new. Used prices start to fall in order to attract more buyers back to used. More people start buying used and stock becomes less. New prices are discounted to attract buyers back, but buyers are slow to react, used prices start to increase because supply and demand. The gap gets smaller between used and new and people start looking at new again.

And so the cycle repeats.