Tour de France 2021

[Jewbacca]

17 minutes ago, DieselnDust said:

 

 

Sure and that is their current focus but in the case of MDVP, his team has ProTour ambitions so that means points in GT's and higher placings.

Preparation for a GT is probably very different to how one would prep for a classics season (more longer duration intervals) so they would likely need to sacrifice the classics season to perform optimally in the GT's but at the end of the day its a W/Kg game and Colbrelli is proving this.

Colbrelli doesn't have to do it EVERY day and to be fair, he will likely lose a lot of time in the high mountains.

W/KG is one thing, but the matches it takes to create those watts at higher mass takes it's toll over 3 weeks.

A GC contender cannot have 1 off day. 

I don't believe that at 26, either of them have a realistic chance of winning a GT unless it is a VERY specific course (re TommyD at Giro - which also arguably ruined his long term career..) and none of the other GC contenders go. 

Bernal and Pog are younger, so they will likely always be there. 

My very humble opinion says that MvdP and WvA won't win a GT and with the modern route trends, definitely not LeTour

[Jaco-fiets]

1 hour ago, Jewbacca said:

With Pogacar, Bernal, Roglic, Remco, Pidcock et al, I don't see MvdP or WvA ever winning a GT if they have to race against these guys.

While they are electric, diverse and immensely talented, I don't think they can change their physiology to not ship big time in the high mountains.

I remember when everyone was all 'Sagan should lose some weight and go for GC' back in the day too. There is a certain amount of hype, excitement and optimism behind the statements, but I don't think it will stick. 

I also think both are more interested in winning the spring classics and monuments, which I can get behind.

 

I agree with you to some extent but i do think that if Van Aert and vd Poel purely focused on GT riding for 2 to 3 seasons, they would be up there competing for the top step. Johan Bruyneel also mentioned it in the latest "The Move"podcast

[DieselnDust]

3 minutes ago, Jewbacca said:

Colbrelli doesn't have to do it EVERY day and to be fair, he will likely lose a lot of time in the high mountains. Yet he has done exactly this. fighting for Sprints points every day since stage 1, arguably fighting harder than the Pog has to.

W/KG is one thing, but the matches it takes to create those watts at higher mass takes it's toll over 3 weeks. Number of matches in your box of lions is your capacity. This is a function of genetics (capacity) and training (working the right systems for the correct duration and recovery)

A GC contender cannot have 1 off day. typically they do, often more than one, its just how their team gets them through it. Roglic had his at the worst possible moment in 2020 and in 2021(Stage 3)

I don't believe that at 26, either of them have a realistic chance of winning a GT unless it is a VERY specific course (re TommyD at Giro - which also arguably ruined his long term career..) and none of the other GC contenders go. Age isn't the limiter here, appropriate training is and their own genetic capacity. We don't know the latter, all we "know" is what we believe they are capable of based on how we perceived their ability based on build. This is a very traditional view and not one I subscribe to.

Bernal and Pog are younger, so they will likely always be there. Youth is not a guarantee of longevity. Burn out is a real thing. Both could retire at 26 having achieved all they want and cannot find the motivation for cycling 25hrs a week anylonger.

My very humble opinion says that MvdP and WvA won't win a GT and with the modern route trends, definitely not LeTour respected and accepted but not aligned. IMO its more a matter of what type of racing excites and motivates them more. What will make them get out of bed at 4am to join a Pure Savage ride, endure 15 punctures and still post on Instagram what w a wonderful time they had.

 

Motivation is the big elephant in the room here.

[Jewbacca]

3 minutes ago, DieselnDust said:

Motivation is the big elephant in the room here.

For sure.

I would love to see more hats being thrown into the ring. 

I'm here for the racing, so the more they light up racing, the better for me, for the sport and for everyone. I would love to be wrong about this.

When one of them wins a GT I will happily join the Savages on a 4am ride and provide all the spare tubes as well as pose for a reel or tiktok or whatever else they are immersed in at the time! ????

On to the present time though............. GO CAV!

[DieselnDust]

6 minutes ago, Jewbacca said:

For sure.

I would love to see more hats being thrown into the ring. 

I'm here for the racing, so the more they light up racing, the better for me, for the sport and for everyone. I would love to be wrong about this.

When one of them wins a GT I will happily join the Savages on a 4am ride and provide all the spare tubes as well as pose for a reel or tiktok or whatever else they are immersed in at the time! ????

On to the present time though............. GO CAV!

ataboy, everybody say hoopaahlaaaaa

[dsw]

23 minutes ago, Jewbacca said:

Colbrelli doesn't have to do it EVERY day and to be fair, he will likely lose a lot of time in the high mountains.

W/KG is one thing, but the matches it takes to create those watts at higher mass takes it's toll over 3 weeks.

A GC contender cannot have 1 off day. 

I don't believe that at 26, either of them have a realistic chance of winning a GT unless it is a VERY specific course (re TommyD at Giro - which also arguably ruined his long term career..) and none of the other GC contenders go. 

Bernal and Pog are younger, so they will likely always be there. 

My very humble opinion says that MvdP and WvA won't win a GT and with the modern route trends, definitely not LeTour

I agree. Even if they focus 100% on it I still do not think they would be able to. Maybe in another era but not right now where we have super talented "natural" GC riders such as Pogacar, Bernal and Evenpoel.

I would argue that Pidcock has the best chance of the Cross riders to win a GC as he is a much more natural climber then the other 2 and wont have do the whole weight loss thing etc. 

[TheoG]

8 minutes ago, Jewbacca said:

For sure.

I would love to see more hats being thrown into the ring. 

I'm here for the racing, so the more they light up racing, the better for me, for the sport and for everyone. I would love to be wrong about this.

When one of them wins a GT I will happily join the Savages on a 4am ride and provide all the spare tubes as well as pose for a reel or tiktok or whatever else they are immersed in at the time! ????

On to the present time though............. GO CAV!

Agree, go Cav, go get no 33, one step closer to that 34 !

[betaboy]

Hoopaahlaaaa! ????

[DieselnDust]

10 minutes ago, dsw said:

I agree. Even if they focus 100% on it I still do not think they would be able to. Maybe in another era but not right now where we have super talented "natural" GC riders such as Pogacar, Bernal and Evenpoel.

I would argue that Pidcock has the best chance of the Cross riders to win a GC as he is a much more natural climber then the other 2 and wont have do the whole weight loss thing etc. 

What is a "natural" GC rider or a "natural climber"

 

PS: Pidcock went backwards on every climb on Sunday. He wasn't operating at capacity

[Jewbacca]

22 minutes ago, DieselnDust said:

What is a "natural" GC rider or a "natural climber"

 

PS: Pidcock went backwards on every climb on Sunday. He wasn't operating at capacity

Pidcock broke his collarbone 5ish weeks ago after being hit by a car while training..... I think we can forgive him being a bit off the pace

[TNT1]

32 minutes ago, DieselnDust said:

What is a "natural" GC rider or a "natural climber"

 

It's in the jeans.

[Shebeen]

2 hours ago, Jewbacca said:

With Pogacar, Bernal, Roglic, Remco, Pidcock et al, I don't see MvdP or WvA ever winning a GT if they have to race against these guys.

While they are electric, diverse and immensely talented, I don't think they can change their physiology to not ship big time in the high mountains.

I remember when everyone was all 'Sagan should lose some weight and go for GC' back in the day too. There is a certain amount of hype, excitement and optimism behind the statements, but I don't think it will stick. 

I also think both are more interested in winning the spring classics and monuments, which I can get behind.

 

transcribed from memory about 20 years ago, but is about 90% accurate.

 

Ride magazine reporter: So Robbie, do you think you could ever win the Tour de France?

Robbie Hunter: no I'm not that sort of rider, but maybe if I got some cancer, like Lance, it could be possible.

 

next edition ride magazine. 4 pages of letters

 

[Shebeen]

On 7/5/2021 at 11:40 AM, DieselnDust said:

Look, We're at the beginning of potentially the greatest era of GT stage racing. So many exciting talents emerging from the rain in France. JB was saying that he'd like to see WvA and MvdP prep for GT contention instead of focusing solely on CX and Road Classics (+MTB in the case of MvdP). He reckons those two could really animate the GC and go all the way. Sonny Colbrelli climbed with the climbers yesterday,..that's not supposed to happen right?!

 Pogacar is possibly the first guy to 8wins and a strong possibility of 8 in a row. So watching potential history in the making is worth the boredom of a race only happening for 2nd and 3rd. 

With BoC in 2nd only 121sec down and climbing very well, the guys behind him are going to have to rely on his collapse to overtake him. All Poggy has to do is upload tetris to his PC8 and get dragged along for the ride.

There is every possibility of drama. A cold for a day or two, anything can still happen, its only the first rest day FCOL.

I'm looking forward to the next two weeks. Stocked up on popcorn, cleared the diary of unnecessary noise and watching the spectacle of Pogy get #2 under the belt. Only 6 more to go after that

unfortunately we will never know how good Roglic was going to be this year, and it was a reminder again that the landscape can change in an instant at a 3week GT.

this one clear and obvious speedbump to Pog winning 8 in a row.

this guy as the sole leader at TdF 2022 is a no brainer. this could be the federer/nadal of the twenties

 

Edited July 6, 2021 by Shebeen

[TNT1]

1 hour ago, Jewbacca said:

 

Bernal and Pog are younger, so they will likely always be there. 

 

That's not a given.

I remember everyone in the know commenting after Bernal's TdF win, that it was the start of his domination for the next decade. Look what happened. 

Every year it seems a new group of younger faster riders is coming up. The need to do an "apprenticeship" until 25/26 years old is gone. Teams scout winners at Junior level, check the numbers in testing in the lab and on the road, and can immediately predict a potential tour winner at 19/20 years old.

[TNT1]

30 minutes ago, Shebeen said:

 

one clear and obvious speedbump to Pog 

 

 

 

Is probably still racing espoirs or is some 19 year old about to win L'avenir in August.

[Jewbacca]

1 minute ago, TNT1 said:

That's not a given.

I remember everyone in the know commenting after Bernal's TdF win, that it was the start of his domination for the next decade. Look what happened. 

Every year it seems a new group of younger faster riders is coming up. The need to do an "apprenticeship" until 25/26 years old is gone. Teams scout winners at Junior level, check the numbers in testing in the lab and on the road, and can immediately predict a potential tour winner at 19/20 years old.

For sure.

But I guess my point is that if Pog and Bernal are there (or better youngsters) I can't see either of them changing physiology to beat them.

Bear in mind Tadej has an ITT to rival anyone, so realistically can they lose mass, keep their power up and change tack as a pro and then beat someone they struggled to beat in a straight line while 'big'? (Or new youngsters even better)

But again, if I'm wrong then cycling has won and I will be stoked as balls