Tour de France 2022

[Jewbacca]

16 minutes ago, Jakkals. said:

I think you are wrong

In what way?

Do you believe Louise is strong enough to out ride Pgacar, Vingegaard and Thomas to get enough of a time buffer to protect in the ITT?

Or would a battle for the Polka not make another interesting race?

I'm struggling to see where Shebeen is off the mark if we look at it realistically. 

[Jakkals.]

15 minutes ago, Jewbacca said:

In what way?

Do you believe Louise is strong enough to out ride Pgacar, Vingegaard and Thomas to get enough of a time buffer to protect in the ITT?

Or would a battle for the Polka not make another interesting race?

I'm struggling to see where Shebeen is off the mark if we look at it realistically. 

Psychologically the stage where he ran across the finish mustve had and impact on him...that stage was made for him and cost him in the following stages loosing time.

Loosing time on the cobbles happened, but I think with a bit more luck, he could've stayed closer to the top guys.

Like previously mentioned...he lost only a handful of seconds on other GC guys in the opening TT and that with wet roads...we know he isnt the fastest on the TT but maybe also the most cautious.

Maybe Louis in an Ineos/Sky setup we would've been able to see his true potential.

Edited July 19, 2022 by Jakkals.

[lechatnoir]

I'd like some clarity...

Hypothetically, If ineos have a full team of strong riders and set their domestiques on the front to push a hard pace, yet JonPog can just sit on at whatever pace Ineos are pressing, assuming they have the legs to do so, does it really matter that JonPog are isolated or have few team mates? Pretty certain it's not a case of Cervelos/Colnagos can only follow Cervelo/Colnagos... strong is strong, surely

I mean, if ineos is riding hard for GT, the onus is still on him to follow. What difference is it if a rider from a different team can also follow?

I've been watching cycling for years and i still don't understand. I suddenly feel foolish because the seems presumed to be obvious...

[TheoG]

6 minutes ago, lechatnoir said:

I'd like some clarity...

Hypothetically, If ineos have a full team of strong riders and set their domestiques on the front to push a hard pace, yet JonPog can just sit on at whatever pace Ineos are pressing, assuming they have the legs to do so, does it really matter that JonPog are isolated or have few team mates? Pretty certain it's not a case of Cervelos/Colnagos can only follow Cervelo/Colnagos... strong is strong, surely

I mean, if ineos is riding hard for GT, the onus is still on him to follow. What difference is it if a rider from a different team can also follow?

I've been watching cycling for years and i still don't understand. I suddenly feel foolish because the seems presumed to be obvious...

Agree with you 100%.  The only way Ineos can do damage is by repeatedly attacking/surging like Roglic & Jonas did with Pogacar, and even then, the two of them is strong enough to deal with that better than GT.

I'm convinced the tour will be decided between JV & TP in the mountains, only Q is, who will crack the most? .

Edited July 19, 2022 by TheoG

[lechatnoir]

4 minutes ago, TheoG said:

Agree with you 100%.  The only way Ineos can do damage is by repeatedly attacking/surging like Roglic & Jonas did with Pogacar, and even then, the two of them is strong enough to deal with that better than GT.

I'm convinced the tour will be decided between JV & TP in the mountains, only Q is, who will crack the most? .

ok, but why the big emphasis on strong team support and not strong legs? ok, legs are still important...  

[Jakkals.]

Just now, lechatnoir said:

ok, but why the big emphasis on strong team support and not strong legs? ok, legs are still important...  

pacing him back after a flat/crash/wind etc. 

[Shebeen]

6 minutes ago, lechatnoir said:

I'd like some clarity...

Hypothetically, If ineos have a full team of strong riders and set their domestiques on the front to push a hard pace, yet JonPog can just sit on at whatever pace Ineos are pressing, assuming they have the legs to do so, does it really matter that JonPog are isolated or have few team mates? Pretty certain it's not a case of Cervelos/Colnagos can only follow Cervelo/Colnagos... strong is strong, surely

I mean, if ineos is riding hard for GT, the onus is still on him to follow. What difference is it if a rider from a different team can also follow?

I've been watching cycling for years and i still don't understand. I suddenly feel foolish because the seems presumed to be obvious...

ok here's some perspective

All the talk leading up to and on the rest day, is how JV and Tadej are going to duke it out in the final week, despite their now equally reduced teams.

There's a really good chance that this is how the tour ends with either one of them on the top step at paris. Part of me is just wishing for an exciting final week to what has already been a great tour. We often have had a strong leader with a strong team covering rivals in the final week to win by a few minutes. this is nothing like that.

 

 

BUT,

Ineos are under the radar and have got good cards to play. they may be hail mary cards, but they have some proper riders who can force things and isolate the riders from their teams. There's a break, Ganna and Rowe drag AY to it, JV and UAE need to shut it down.

JV are fortunate WvA has such a green jersey lead, he can be a total domestique in the mountain stages, just needs to finish the event to hold the jersey.

[lechatnoir]

11 minutes ago, Jakkals. said:

pacing him back after a flat/crash/wind etc. 

is that the only reason? that makes perfect sense, though the general insinuation is something else. the talk being about 'support in the mountains'

 

Edited July 19, 2022 by lechatnoir

[TheoG]

9 minutes ago, Shebeen said:

ok here's some perspective

All the talk leading up to and on the rest day, is how JV and Tadej are going to duke it out in the final week, despite their now equally reduced teams.

There's a really good chance that this is how the tour ends with either one of them on the top step at paris. Part of me is just wishing for an exciting final week to what has already been a great tour. We often have had a strong leader with a strong team covering rivals in the final week to win by a few minutes. this is nothing like that.

 

 

BUT,

Ineos are under the radar and have got good cards to play. they may be hail mary cards, but they have some proper riders who can force things and isolate the riders from their teams. There's a break, Ganna and Rowe drag AY to it, JV and UAE need to shut it down.

JV are fortunate WvA has such a green jersey lead, he can be a total domestique in the mountain stages, just needs to finish the event to hold the jersey.

True, now that Kruijswijk & Roglic is gone, a lot of responsibility is going to go onto Wout's strong shoulders.

Edit:  It also wont hurt if Sepp Kuss can find another gear in the high mountains.

Edited July 19, 2022 by TheoG

[Shebeen]

18 minutes ago, TheoG said:

Agree with you 100%.  The only way Ineos can do damage is by repeatedly attacking/surging like Roglic & Jonas did with Pogacar, and even then, the two of them is strong enough to deal with that better than GT.

I'm convinced the tour will be decided between JV & TP in the mountains, only Q is, who will crack the most? .

Ineos have a third card to play. Pidcock, 8mins down gets into the(every) break. Who is going to chase?

Some slight question marks over UAE remain, Majka is crucial but has had covid, the rest of the team is really young. That doesn't mean they can't perform, but there's potential for some real crafty racing this week and the DS must be a ball of nerves right now.

 

 

 

 

[Jewbacca]

29 minutes ago, Jakkals. said:

Psychologically the stage where he ran across the finish mustve had and impact on him...that stage was made for him and cost him in the following stages loosing time.

Loosing time on the cobbles happened, but I think with a bit more luck, he could've stayed closer to the top guys.

Like previously mentioned...he lost only a handful of seconds on other GC guys in the opening TT and that with wet roads...we know he isnt the fastest on the TT but maybe also the most cautious.

Maybe Louis in an Ineos/Sky setup we would've been able to see his true potential.

All I'm going to say is that the top guys clearly don't see him as a threat to the podium as they did nothing to speed up or chase any seconds when they knew he was so far up the road. 

It's rad to see him thriving and doing so well and I really hope he can get a stage win or jump up the rankings even more in Paris. But realistically I don't think the top GC guys see him as a threat should things not go entirely pear shaped.

 

[TheoG]

Just now, Jewbacca said:

All I'm going to say is that the top guys clearly don't see him as a threat to the podium as they did nothing to speed up or chase any seconds when they knew he was so far up the road. 

It's rad to see him thriving and doing so well and I really hope he can get a stage win or jump up the rankings even more in Paris. But realistically I don't think the top GC guys see him as a threat should things not go entirely pear shaped.

 

They wont however allow him to get in a break away again and gain something like 10 minutes.  I don't see that happening, not AGAIN.

[worriesnot]

[Jewbacca]

13 minutes ago, TheoG said:

They wont however allow him to get in a break away again and gain something like 10 minutes.  I don't see that happening, not AGAIN.

For sure, that would be giving the jersey away and not boxing smart. Just like they let Kamna go and almost get yellow. They know that they can manage him and he isn't a threat in the long game.

I guess my main point is that if Roglic was 16 minutes down, they wouldn't have allowed him to get into that move and claw back to within 90 seconds of the podium. 

I'm sure every DS did the Math and there was almost no real reaction or acceleration from the top teams. 

[J Wakefield]

1 hour ago, Jakkals. said:

I think you are wrong

In that Louis is strong enough to go for GC overall against Tadej and Jonas and Gerraint to a degree? 

No dude. 

[J Wakefield]

37 minutes ago, Shebeen said:

Ineos have a third card to play. Pidcock, 8mins down gets into the(every) break. Who is going to chase?

Some slight question marks over UAE remain, Majka is crucial but has had covid, the rest of the team is really young. That doesn't mean they can't perform, but there's potential for some real crafty racing this week and the DS must be a ball of nerves right now.

 

 

 

 

No team will let Pidock get in the break and allow it to stay away again. Also the energy expended for that in week 3 is not sustainable. 

As reference, the peloton are on auto pilot they are totally smashed. this tour has been incredible aggressive, fast and hard. Riders were in tears coming up Granon, physically crying the last 10km. Its been that hard.