Is the 2nd hand market dead?

[MTBRIDER1234]

On 5/10/2023 at 4:44 PM, Shebeen said:

I'm not sure if you're more miffed about my tone or the fact that you were wrong. I can't really help you with the first, I don't think I was too obnoxious and we are on internet after all.

The second one, unfortunately, is still the case going on this reply. I'm not sure what you meant by extensive study of supply/demand laws but we're seeing a basic case of it in action here. Items are not going for a "steal", they are going for what they are worth. The fact that market has moved the value to a different number to what you think it is worth shows that it is following these basic principles.

I didn't say I am an expert by any means, but I would like to think I know a bit more than the average Joe, simply because I have studied it. 

Maybe I was wrong to say it was a steal, I think it would have been better to say they are good value in my opinion.

4 hours ago, PhilipV said:

This is where the disconnect is in his thinking. He is saying things are going for a "steal," but the "steal" is relative to his perceived value of said items. And that perception is too high. 

Point A isn't wrong. Surely if you've been buying and selling for 5 years you'll know that the for sale price, and actual selling price often differs? Shebeen is implying that you can't use the Listed prices as gospel. 

I believe that some bikes are going for a steal now compared to what they would have sold to a while ago. I realize this is what the market thinks they are worth, but in my eyes, it is a good price for the bike you get relative to how it was even up to 6 months or so ago.

For example, when someone like Robert Kiyosaki buys property in a depressed market with the intention to rent it out, then resell it when the market has recovered, he could sell it for far more than he acquired it for. Now while this is relative to what the market thinks it is worth, and is prepared to pay, most people will say that he got a very good deal on the property when the market was in a bad shape, because he was able to make so much money when he then sold it on.

Or if I was to buy a Spez epic for 80k when the market was low, but it would have gone for 120k in a healthy market, then in my opinion, it is a steal, no matter what the market says. If your mate goes and buys a 2nd hand WRX STI for 100k in a shitty market when nobody else had the money to buy it, but it would normally be worth 3-400k, so the seller was forced to take a lower rate, you wouldn't say to him: "wow you got a really market value deal boet", no, you would say: "that was a bargain"

I may have come on a bit strong (I think we all did to some extent), or used terms that oversimplified things, but at the end of the day, I am not an expert, and I doubt anyone else here is. We all come here because we want to share the stoke for riding bikes, and life is too short to get into an online fight with someone you have never met, and will probably never meet.

[RobertWhitehead]

I have observed a few things whilst going through all the replies:

1) @Jacko18you sound very young and still have lots to learn, not everything is personal or a bullying tactic.

2) It doesn't matter how long you've been doing something, the moment you think you know everything about the topic it is time to either get out or have a long and hard look at yourself and ask if you're really an expert or just a box. 

3) Buying and selling is quite simple to understand, if I have 4 forks but I don't have any cash then I am stock rich but cash poor, I then end up selling some items to liquefy my stock. Price then isn't too important to me then. I basically just want cash. This is when. Something turns into a "steal" 

Your risk is that you may end up with too much stock or too little stock. Either scenario can be bad for the market. 

[SSCC]

On 5/9/2023 at 9:48 AM, MTBRIDER1234 said:

Talking from experience, I have to disagree.

The 2nd hand market 2 years ago was frankly insane. I sold 2 hardtail xc bikes within 2 hours of listing them, at prices that would now seem stupid. Bikes were going for thousands more than they were really worth due to demand.

Currently, the 2nd hand market has crashed. A bike I was selling, that would have gotten in the low 20k range 2 years ago took months to sell, and I ended up having to take 5k less than what it was really worth. I also know other people selling enduro bikes for 12k below market value struggling to sell them.

People are just not buying as many 2nd hand bikes, and certainly not paying stupid prices anymore. 

You’re right. The 2nd hand market has certainly slowed. A lot. That’s not my opinion but comes from the largest used bike reseller worldwide - The Pros Closet. 

[Jacko18]

6 hours ago, RobertWhitehead said:

I have observed a few things whilst going through all the replies:

1) @Jacko18you sound very young and still have lots to learn, not everything is personal or a bullying tactic.

2) It doesn't matter how long you've been doing something, the moment you think you know everything about the topic it is time to either get out or have a long and hard look at yourself and ask if you're really an expert or just a box. 

3) Buying and selling is quite simple to understand, if I have 4 forks but I don't have any cash then I am stock rich but cash poor, I then end up selling some items to liquefy my stock. Price then isn't too important to me then. I basically just want cash. This is when. Something turns into a "steal" 

Your risk is that you may end up with too much stock or too little stock. Either scenario can be bad for the market. 

So now I'm being discriminated agaisny for potentially being young? You Knollwood full well there is a chance I am not young, and thereby hoping to offend me by calling me childish.   The bullies are strong in this forum....

Not sure where I said I know everything.  Have you went and looked for every one of my replies before making that deduction? If not, that is very irresponsible.  

[Jewbacca]

I am so confused.

Would the 2nd hand market be thriving if things were selling for cheap? Or woud it be thriving if things were selling (actually selling, not being advertised) for lots?

As a buyer and seller surely you would want the latter?

With the Rand/Dollar being decimated, putting bikeshops in the dwang and pushing up new prices, how will that help the second hand market other than make it more expensive again? 

Or do we want that as per my first question?

Some are rallying behind a cheaper 2nd hand market but also pointing out indicators that will 'help it' by pushing up prices.

Jaco is also definitely trolling everyone with his finding insult in everything. Which is pure comedy gold after accusing Shebeen of being an internet troll.

The student has become the master! or If you can't beat them, join them!

Personally, from a very informal, non economist point of view from somebody who knows his own intellectual limits, there are a lot of holes in all of these economic models. John Maynard Keynes is rolling in his grave.

 

[Akon]

2 hours ago, Jacko18 said:

So now I'm being discriminated agaisny for potentially being young? You Knollwood full well there is a chance I am not young, and thereby hoping to offend me by calling me childish.   The bullies are strong in this forum....

Not sure where I said I know everything.  Have you went and looked for every one of my replies before making that deduction? If not, that is very irresponsible.  

Geez, you're not thin skinned - you have no skin...

[Theunissa]

4 minutes ago, Jewbacca said:

I am so confused.

Would the 2nd hand market be thriving if things were selling for cheap? Or woud it be thriving if things were selling (actually selling, not being advertised) for lots?

As a buyer and seller surely you would want the latter?

With the Rand/Dollar being decimated, putting bikeshops in the dwang and pushing up new prices, how will that help the second hand market other than make it more expensive again? 

Or do we want that as per my first question?

Some are rallying behind a cheaper 2nd hand market but also pointing out indicators that will 'help it' by pushing up prices.

Jaco is also definitely trolling everyone with his finding insult in everything. Which is pure comedy gold after accusing Shebeen of being an internet troll.

The student has become the master! or If you can't beat them, join them!

Personally, from a very informal, non economist point of view from somebody who knows his own intellectual limits, there are a lot of holes in all of these economic models. John Maynard Keynes is rolling in his grave.

 

I agree. I habe been getting some mean deals on the hub. Yes you get less for more than 5 years ago. I got a silverback sola 4 for 7500 new in 2016. With deore parts. Now similar will be 14k new. But also I can't get more Tha. 5-6k. For it. Used. I got a titian racing 24" for 1500. I see dual sus going new for 15-25k with decent parts, and new if you see it at that price it has microshift gears and an xcr fork. Cheap stuff. Real cheap. So ja if a person says stuff is too expensive and compares 5 years old dual sus with new dual sus at same price and says it's expensive. Do they know parts and value difference, over time. Because I can't compare a older merida big nine dual to a new Titan Cypher entry level or a new silverback straits vs 2015 Stratos. That's like saying my 2010 hikux is expensive because it's more than a Tata new. This is normally a sign that you ignorant about prices in a certain industry. I believe you me. The country is financial suffering. I do electrical and security work. And people are going with out it more and more. 

 

 

 

[Jacko18]

13 minutes ago, Akon said:

Geez, you're not thin skinned - you have no skin...

Bully.  You can be proud. If that's the kind of thing that gets you going. 

[throttles]

Happy Friiiiiiday everyone..  🍿

Enter 2 days of riding and be Lekker on MONDAY.. 

[Jewbacca]

2 minutes ago, throttles said:

Happy Friiiiiiday everyone..  🍿

Enter 2 days of riding and be Lekker on MONDAY.. 

Not sure how much riding anyone will be doing in Cape Town, unless you want to contribute to the 2nd hand market next week replacing things!

[NotSoBigBen]

@Jewbacca "from somebody who knows his own intellectual limits" now therein lies the crux my friend ... 'quite some few' as my mate would say over estimate theirs 😜

[throttles]

15 minutes ago, Jewbacca said:

Not sure how much riding anyone will be doing in Cape Town, unless you want to contribute to the 2nd hand market next week replacing things!

Friday IDT

Saturday IDT

Sunday - 50/50 | IDT/Road

[Theunissa]

10 minutes ago, throttles said:

Friday IDT

Saturday IDT

Sunday - 50/50 | IDT/Road

I would rather walk than do this much idt. I hate it. I only do it because the coach forced me to in the week for intervals 

[Help.Me.]

@Theunissa get a new/second hand coach seeing the second hand market is cheap at the moment...

[throttles]

23 minutes ago, Theunissa said:

I would rather walk than do this much idt. I hate it. I only do it because the coach forced me to in the week for intervals 

me too, but there's a nice 30 min interval session that gets me 300 discovery points 😬😅

*Also it's tooooo wet and windy for a walk in the cape of storms.. 

Edited May 12, 2023 by throttles
rain

[gerriemtb]

A summary of the thread for those that don't want to read