Is the MTB event bubble about to burst?

[Zoon Cronje_939]

This is a thought piece designed as commentary to get the conversation going to get a deeper understanding of the rumblings and trends in the space even before many realise it has manifested. There has been a lot of talk about steadily declining numbers in mountain biking events and the downturn in retail. 

 

The subsequent 3minute questionnaire is intended to get an insight into what drives the decision making from a consumer behaviour point of view. Though only a few questions deep and hardly comprehensive market research or analysis. I know many of my friends either part take or have a stake in this segment hence the public approach so if you have a second to spare please do indulge or provide your insight / take on the matter.

 

Understanding the current mountain biking event landscape

 

South Africa is according to the general perception yet again perched precariously on the brink of another recession and is experiencing the worst brain drain since the early 90’s. Market research done by conducted by a significant role-player in the high end cycling and recreation segment shows that the high LSM group that formed their high end target audience of around 4 000 000 people nearly 1 000 000 have emigrated over the last few years alone.

 

This combined with an all time low in investor confidence has seen consumers tighten the belt and hang on to their disposable income as contingency has seen significant decrease in spending. The cycling retail industry have widely reported year on year drops of 40% in Mountain Bike sales. This has not excluded the events in the space and most have seen participation drop with a between of 20% up to 50% year on year.

 

This has seen their retail focus shift dramatically to bring the middle class into the sport by emphasising entry level equipment and making the sport more accessible to help build their future high end sales by growing the base which seems to be the wiser strategy to adopt. Question remains have events been resting on their laurels and have they been riding the wave in mountain biking and cycling’s sudden popularity and media attention.

 

It is worthwhile to note that a new culture of riding trails or visiting trail parks has also contributed to the “I don’t need to race to ride” attitude. There has been significant investment over time into permanent trails open to the public where riders are able to ride in safety on enjoyable trails where previously they had to enter events to gain access to that privilege. 

 

The more expensive events have seen an even more significant drop with 28% to as much as 50% decrease in numbers. South Africa has been over saturated with events especially stage races leaving consumers with far too many events to choose from. This freedom to choose has created a culture of trying new events or new trails consumers haven’t experienced and in many cases made people hesitant to repeat events that don’t have a unique identity or change their routes or offering year on year for instance.

 

In this economic climate many of the smaller events and even some of the larger events that don’t have scale behind them will or have already failed. Under these conditions if you can manage public perception and show strength our events will not only stand out but thrive in my opinion. Real growth in these conditions might be a pipe dream but taking market share should also be seen as a win for any organiser or brand in the industry.

 

Other observations in mountain biking industry based on publicly available event results: 

Even an established stage race event like Sani2C has seen 28.8% and 20% drop in numbers where Joberg2C on the other hand has seen a significant boost in international competitors due to its unique offering (*source: results for each event that is publicly available). The ABSA Cape Epic has for the most part not seen too much of a dip in numbers but it has global acclaim and a unique appeal. The take-home here is that unless you have a unique and / or a constantly changing offering finding numbers in a very saturated market will be a challenge combined with the economic factors.

 

Another outlier case study could be found in the Cape Trek where they completely did away with the competitive component and even prize money, they even added free wine to the mix and not only improved their rating significantly but their numbers year on year too.

 

This short survey is a snapshot into what drives the decision making and to determine if the bubble is about to burst or if we are just riding the economic storm....

Here's the survey https://www.surveymonkey.com/r/N27DBLF

 

 

[Frosty]

I completed the survey, but it wouldn't allow more than 100Km of training per week (which is sometimes one ride). 

[Oufy MTB (Roadie)]

I completed the survey, but it wouldn't allow more than 100Km of training per week (which is sometimes one ride).

 

Same here

 

Question 12 need more options

[porqui]

Distance is a % of the numbers in the grey from 0 to 1200

 

Just got frustrated - a bad survey setup - and dumped it

[Prince Albert Cycles]

Distance is a % of the numbers in the grey from 0 to 1200

 

Just got frustrated - a bad survey setup - and dumped it

You spared me the effort

[Wayne pudding Mol]

Https://www.bikehub.co.za/topic/178357-has-the-mtb-stage-racing-bubble-finally-burst/?hl=bubble

[Bizkit031]

This survey is focused mainly on Marathon/classic events.

[Baracuda]

This survey is focused mainly on Marathon/classic events.

 

 

Yip. I think it misses the evolution of the sport and other sports over time. My personal own clouded limited view as a 45 year old male, saw mountain biking coming in 20 years ago, we all did a few one day events, then stage racing started, we all went through the stage racing phase, then guys started getting gatvol of training all the time for long races and paying silly amounts on bikes, servicing and kit. After 4-5 years it got boring so guys started looking for a new challenge.

 

Some moved to trail running as it is simpler, but still do one or two mtb races a year.

 

Others found Enduro or gravel racing. I found Enduro, tons more fun and the events are growing and are packed. The last event in Jonkershoek was showing growing pains and packed with youngsters on very expensive bikes. Apparently the gravel events are also growing in popularity.

Edited November 5, 2019 by Baracuda

[arendoog]

Really perfect storm situation .Everybody has a good bike by now or n+1 .Most of us have done all the big events ,stage races .Bike parks are taking my money at the moment .People are not buying cars, houses ,bikes due to economy . This is for the people that have not emigrated yet .The, we are staying lot,are exploring new ways of riding .Many people are organising their own riding weekends ext .Cycling won,t die just yet ,but the growth will certainly slow down to a stable sustainable level 

[DieselnDust]

I'm not buying into the stats presented. The ABSA CAPE EPIC entry interest is a blind target because no one but the event organisers and their auditors knowns how many lottery entry tickets are sold per annum. That is the real measure of interest. Then hw many of those allocated are actually taken up? YEs they always have 600 odd teams but thats an easy number to hit if you are reaching 10million mtber globally.

 

Toughter economci times is a definite driver to reduction in luxury goods sales and event  entries

higher levels of taxation

essentially a assive reduction in disposable income is the main driver to lower entries.

 

All that will happen now is that the events will need to market themselves to a wider audience

[DIPSLICK]

When I saw the heading I thought it was Throw Back Thursdays, this one has been tackled a few years ago pretty much to death,,,,,,and here we are spending North of R100k on bikes and still trying to get entries to stage races

 

arendoog is correct times are tough ALL INDUSTRIES are crying, banks are closing, high end goods are down for the first time in years having said that most cyclists I know are now simply doing smaller upgrades and selecting some of the better stage races ones that offer value for money

 

As far as the sport going away,,,,no time soon in Sunny SA

[Grease_Monkey]

Personally I don't see the appeal in the majority of mass start marathon events unless you are competitive and at the pointy end of the race. When you are mid or back of the pack all the fun bits of single track descents are congested - I did the Berg and Bush 2 years ago, and while I have nothing but good things to say about the events and the trails, for the whole descent down the escarpment I was on my brakes, and even had to stop at some points because of congestion. Now it's because I wasn't seeded because I am not a competitive marathon rider, but it does mean that all of the fun parts of the ride were not fun for me which means I probably won't do the event again. 

 

On the other side I have a good friend who has a simple solution to all of this, just win the event and you won't be stuck behind someone - and that's what he has done at the Wines to Whales last year (mid week) and the Berg and Bush this year (also mid week). But he trains 15 hours a week, and he loves it - so I guess what I am saying is different strokes for different folks.

 

What I am loving at the moment is bike packing trips and Enduro. A few weeks ago a few friends and myself did an awesome weekend bike packing trip around Greyton and Grabouw - it cost us next to nothing, the trails were wide open, and we were able to satisfy our pain cave needs. Events wise - I will try do the half 36One annually (so far only once).

 

On the other hand, Enduro events I take a bit more seriously (not competitive, but this is where I push myself and try get my best possible results). The appeal of course is the type of trails - nice and techy, and the fact that you tag in separately so you are never stuck behind someone on the fun bits. The overall vibe, and dare I say non-douchy attitude of riders that take part in Enduro events is a welcome contrast to the stage racing scene.

 

All this said, there are one or two stage races that I would love to do, namely:

- Joburg2C - for the personal challenge as well as the beautiful trails (I live in WC so it's unfamiliar trails to me)

- The U (For the unique trails, I have ridden a portion of the trails with some locals and it is just awesome - techy yet still XC)

- Eselfontein Stage Race - they have the right idea, own tent, own food, AWESOME trails, low pricing

- BC Bike Race (Canada) - Because it just looks awesome in every aspect

Edited November 5, 2019 by Grease_Monkey

[BuffsVintageBikes]

The bubble is indeed about to burst for the stage races that are busy pricing themselves out of the market. However I still believe the "value the money" events will be supported going forward.

 

Most of my cycling friendship circle have settled on organizing our own long weekends away near popular mtb trails and it works out at a fraction of the cost of these multi stage events. The bonus is we get to stay in fairly luxury accommodation and dine like Kings every day.

e.g. a recent trip to the Groot Vadersbos reserve cost us R3000 each for 4 days (all in), including the transport and it offered some of the best trails and gravel roads I've ridden in ages.

[Rocket-Boy]

Stage racing was always going to go the way of triathlon.

It was a blast at first doing the races with your mates, you tackled the first one with almost no training and battled through it but came out with a smile.

So a little more work went into the next one. Soon it was a lot of training for each race.

 

That all gets a bit much after a while and the time/cost starts to get a bit much. Eventually a couple of buddies move on to something else and before you know it you are the last one flying the flag.

 

Sure some races will always do well, but in general its just not as popular as it was 3 years ago.

[dev null]

Why do so many races when you live on the doorstep of most of the trails used in the W2W and Epic? 

 

We have decided to do more outrides at our own convenience and pace, and it works out much cheaper. And then do maybe one race every now and then just to meet new people and enjoy the competitive side of the sport.

[hansolo]

I think there is still scope for some events but there definitely seems to be an "over supply". The appeal of an organised event is there but it doesn't always feel like the money adds up. Paying R7000 to R8000 for three days with craft beer and gourmet burgers (if you are lucky) is a lot of money. I'd like the option of being able to pitch my own (bigger) tent and make my own food/supply my own beer. Granted, not all events/venues would allow for it but there is some events where a cheaper option could work.

 

I'd still like to do Wines2Whales and the U, luckily I ticked BC Bike Race off my bucketlist this year.