The CTCT in under 3 hrs - By the numbers

[DieselnDust]

The data Andy posted illustrates nicely why a 4W/kg FTP is more of a guarantee of achieving sub 3 than 3.5 W/kg. Tactically a 3.5W/Kg FTP can get you there but you need great conditions and be able to read the race. The higher the FTP the bigger your margin of error.
also even though the climbs are short, they're steepish and therefore requires high 5 to 8min power. Chappies is the one that requires high 10 - 12min power output.
If you think about the climbs as your big matches you have 6 to burn
hospital
Edinburgh
smits
ocean View
chappies
Suikerbossie

Edited March 11, 2020 by DieselnDust

[CatchMeIfYouCan]

Nice write up, Braam. And well done 

 

To add some data, average power (from Garmin Vector pedals) on the climbs for me starting in @. I weigh 84 kg. In or near the front group over most except for dropping off just before the top of Chappies and Suikerbossie, but getting back on.

 

Edinburg Drive 1.7 km at 5% - 366 watts

 

Smitswinkel 1.6 km at 5% - 357 watts

 

Little Chappies 1.4 km at 4% - 356 watts

 

Chappies Main 1.7 km at 5% - 367 watts

 

Suikerbossie 1.9 km at 7% - 377 watts

 

Average power for the whole ride was only 186 watts! Shows how important intervals are!

 

Thanks, that is very useful. Would you mind including the length of time for each effort? 

[Pure Savage]

Also interesting, the climbs dont really make or break the race. 

 

Here is the comparison between the front of & group and @ group. The time was not gained on the climbs, but into the headwind.

 

 

 

 

 

[HeadDown]

Thanks for the 'numbers' Braam and Andy. Realise its ballpark but it seems a FTP of about 3.2 w/kg and the ability to do about 20 min @ 4 w/kg will make a sub 3 very possible. Just keep out of the wind and don't fall over. This is encouraging, got the FTP sorted, 20m@4w/kg needs work....

[HeadDown]

Also interesting, the climbs dont really make or break the race. 

 

Here is the comparison between the front of & group and @ group. The time was not gained on the climbs, but into the headwind.

 

WhatsApp Image 2020-03-09 at 12.08.04.jpeg

So get into a group with a lot of Savages? 

[JohanDiv]

Also interesting, the climbs dont really make or break the race. 

 

Here is the comparison between the front of & group and @ group. The time was not gained on the climbs, but into the headwind.

 

WhatsApp Image 2020-03-09 at 12.08.04.jpeg

 

 

What was the tactics in the headwind? You were quite a few savages together in the group.. did only you guys take turns upfront to put the hammer down? Kept rolling through? Or 2min efforts each or something like that? Did the rest of the bunch work together(I highly doubt this!)?

 

Edit: On our Sunday coffee rides I just take cover behind the tall frame of Kris Coetzee when the headwind picks up 

Edited March 11, 2020 by JohanDiv

[braamverster]

Thanks for the 'numbers' Braam and Andy. Realise its ballpark but it seems a FTP of about 3.2 w/kg and the ability to do about 20 min @ 4 w/kg will make a sub 3 very possible. Just keep out of the wind and don't fall over. This is encouraging, got the FTP sorted, 20m@4w/kg needs work....

Yes, i would say so (assuming good conditions, OK seeding etc), noting that the 20 min at 4W/KG is rather 4x5min or 5x4min with 5-8 min rest between them. If you can do 20min solid at 4W/kg, your FTP will be 3.8W/kg given that one way to test FTP is to ride at your max for 20 min and multiply by 0.95

[Captain Fastbastard Mayhem]

What was the tactics in the headwind? You were quite a few savages together in the group.. did only you guys take turns upfront to put the hammer down? Kept rolling through? Or 2min efforts each or something like that? Did the rest of the bunch work together(I highly doubt this!)?

 

Edit: On our Sunday coffee rides I just take cover behind the tall frame of Kris Coetzee when the headwind picks up 

BAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!! He is quite a large dude, and feckin strong!

[Karman de Lange]

Nice write up, Braam. And well done 

 

To add some data, average power (from Garmin Vector pedals) on the climbs for me starting in @. I weigh 84 kg. In or near the front group over most except for dropping off just before the top of Chappies and Suikerbossie, but getting back on.

 

Edinburg Drive 1.7 km at 5% - 366 watts

 

Smitswinkel 1.6 km at 5% - 357 watts

 

Little Chappies 1.4 km at 4% - 356 watts

 

Chappies Main 1.7 km at 5% - 367 watts

 

Suikerbossie 1.9 km at 7% - 377 watts

 

Average power for the whole ride was only 186 watts! Shows how important intervals are!

 

My numbers

86kg, I had 3:03 moving time, 3:08 total , I punctured at eddenB and went easy from there, knew sub3 is gone.

 

Quark Crank power meter

 

 

Eddenburg Drive: 359W

Smits: 281W (pushed a friend up, so it went a bit slower than normal)

Little Chappies: 248W

Chappies Main:  254W

Suikderbossie :  270W

 

Max 5 min power, 365w

 

Average: 210W , NP 237W 

 

So guess without puncture and sticking to start group would have gotten just under 3 hrs with same numbers, but as said, went easy after edden so who really knows

Edited March 11, 2020 by Karman de Lange

[HeadDown]

Yes, i would say so (assuming good conditions, OK seeding etc), noting that the 20 min at 4W/KG is rather 4x5min or 5x4min with 5-8 min rest between them. If you can do 20min solid at 4W/kg, your FTP will be 3.8W/kg given that one way to test FTP is to ride at your max for 20 min and multiply by 0.95

Yes, I wasn't very clear.

[Pure Savage]

What was the tactics in the headwind? You were quite a few savages together in the group.. did only you guys take turns upfront to put the hammer down? Kept rolling through? Or 2min efforts each or something like that? Did the rest of the bunch work together(I highly doubt this!)?

 

Edit: On our Sunday coffee rides I just take cover behind the tall frame of Kris Coetzee when the headwind picks up 

Ben went to the front and then everyone else got jealous and wanted a turn, there were about 14 of us in &. Probably burnt a few matches here and there but the 3 min made a big difference. Also, did not spot any crashes all day.

[DieselnDust]

Also interesting, the climbs dont really make or break the race. 

 

Here is the comparison between the front of & group and @ group. The time was not gained on the climbs, but into the headwind.

 

WhatsApp Image 2020-03-09 at 12.08.04.jpeg

 

I think that's because the seeding does work at that level in terms of grouping people appropriately into populations. The fastest groups have more power everywhere and are using it more strategically

[andydude]

Thanks, that is very useful. Would you mind including the length of time for each effort? 

 

My segment data is from Strava. Times below at the end of each segment:

 

Edinburg Drive 1.7 km at 5% - 366 watts - 4:12

 

Smitswinkel 1.6 km at 5% - 357 watts - 4:01

 

Little Chappies 1.4 km at 4% - 356 watts - 2:57

 

Chappies Main 1.7 km at 5% - 367 watts - 4:22

 

Suikerbossie 1.9 km at 7% - 377 watts - 5:16

[andydude]

Also interesting, the climbs dont really make or break the race. 

 

Here is the comparison between the front of & group and @ group. The time was not gained on the climbs, but into the headwind.

 

WhatsApp Image 2020-03-09 at 12.08.04.jpeg

 

Man that explains why the front group of @ dropped me on Suikerbossie 

 

And why we could get on again as they sat up.

[Skubarra]

My segment data is from Strava. Times below at the end of each segment:

 

Edinburg Drive 1.7 km at 5% - 366 watts - 4:12

 

 

fwiw I did the segment in 4:16 from the back of the group. But when I crested there was a massive gap that I couldn't bridge. Only caught you again in Simonstown.

 

Amazing how small the margins can be between a k%^ and a great ride 

[Mamil]

Thanks all for sharing these numbers. Really shows what a mamil must do to knock on the 3hr door. First step... lose 3 kg.