Tour de France 2024

[DieselnDust]

18 minutes ago, Mountain Bru said:

Oddly, I think the person who would be most unhappy with these standings on the first rest day is Pogacar. He animated so many stages and attacked so many times, and I think UAE would have been hoping for bigger gaps after 9 stages. 1:36 to Roglic is pretty negligible considering how things have gone.

I doubt the opportunity for bigger time gaps is reasonable. These stages have been pretty flat so short of getting into a break away of some echelon splits even animating the stages was not going to do much other than soften the legs of the opposition , test the waters so to speak. 
Vingegaard smack talk about his expectation of bigger time losses is just that. He would not have wanted to lose any time to Pogačar since if he is feeling under prepared he can’t have a realistic expectation of keeping up with better prepared competitors in the final week unless all racing remained neutral enough to allow him time for recovery. As it stands both Pogačar and Evenapoel have tested him and one can see the elastic is stretching. He’s clearly less comfortable than last year. 

[betaboy]

Vin should be happy with whatever he gets. I was one who doubted his participation in TdF. So I’m eating humble pie. I honestly am astonished at his recovery. Remco also in first Tour his still young, let’s see if the Giro doesn’t catch up with the Pog Machine. Rest days are never rest days… 

[Bub Marley]

9 hours ago, mecheng89 said:

I'm very concerned for Stage 21. Yes, Remco didn't gain a truckfull of seconds in the first ITT, but he gained. If the gap between Pogi and Remco remains tight, a major slipup from Pogi will lose him the tour. 

It's about time that the final stage of the biggest bike race in the world plays a bigger role than just a parade and a small sprint at the end.

Remco has yet to show he can mix it with the big boys on high mountains. I expect him to fall way off behind Roglic. 

4 hours ago, Mountain Bru said:

Oddly, I think the person who would be most unhappy with these standings on the first rest day is Pogacar. He animated so many stages and attacked so many times, and I think UAE would have been hoping for bigger gaps after 9 stages. 1:36 to Roglic is pretty negligible considering how things have gone.

I disagree. There’s only been 1 proper stage where big time gaps could have happened and that was the Galibuer. And in fairness Pog did gain some time. Generally speaking, the tour has been relatively flat or hilly. Big mountain stages are still coming. 

[Mountain Bru]

4 hours ago, DieselnDust said:

I doubt the opportunity for bigger time gaps is reasonable. These stages have been pretty flat so short of getting into a break away of some echelon splits even animating the stages was not going to do much other than soften the legs of the opposition , test the waters so to speak. 
Vingegaard smack talk about his expectation of bigger time losses is just that. He would not have wanted to lose any time to Pogačar since if he is feeling under prepared he can’t have a realistic expectation of keeping up with better prepared competitors in the final week unless all racing remained neutral enough to allow him time for recovery. As it stands both Pogačar and Evenapoel have tested him and one can see the elastic is stretching. He’s clearly less comfortable than last year. 

I agree.... mostly...
It just looked like Jonas' tactics over the last 9 stages were to stick to Pogi's wheel and not lose time, and save himself for the high mountains that suit him better. I think he pretty much achieved that, even though he obviously would have preferred to not lose time.

I think Remco was hoping for bigger gaps on the TT, and there might have been if he didn't have a paranoia attack and think he punctured, but on the whole, I think he'll be happy with being 33s doing on Pogi. He's also definitely been the 3rd strongest climber in the race so far. 

Roglic has been dropped 100 times in 9 stages, so I don't think he can complain about being 1:36 down on Pogi. If one or 2 things went slightly differently, he could easily be 4 minutes down. 

Pogi on the other hand has been ultra-aggressive and attacked whenever possible. I feel like he and his team (apart from Ayuso and Almeida) have done everything they can to take time, even when it seemed impossible for him to win the stage. I don't think it's an understatement to say he's burned the most energy of the 4 in the last 9 stages. So to only have a 1:15 on Jonas must be less than what they hoped for. 

[DieselnDust]

11 hours ago, Mountain Bru said:

I agree.... mostly...
It just looked like Jonas' tactics over the last 9 stages were to stick to Pogi's wheel and not lose time, and save himself for the high mountains that suit him better. I think he pretty much achieved that, even though he obviously would have preferred to not lose time.

I think Remco was hoping for bigger gaps on the TT, and there might have been if he didn't have a paranoia attack and think he punctured, but on the whole, I think he'll be happy with being 33s doing on Pogi. He's also definitely been the 3rd strongest climber in the race so far. 

Roglic has been dropped 100 times in 9 stages, so I don't think he can complain about being 1:36 down on Pogi. If one or 2 things went slightly differently, he could easily be 4 minutes down. 

Pogi on the other hand has been ultra-aggressive and attacked whenever possible. I feel like he and his team (apart from Ayuso and Almeida) have done everything they can to take time, even when it seemed impossible for him to win the stage. I don't think it's an understatement to say he's burned the most energy of the 4 in the last 9 stages. So to only have a 1:15 on Jonas must be less than what they hoped for. 

According to Johan Bruyneel, Pogi has been the most economical of the top 3, expending less calories per kg than Remco and Jonas.

[peepeekaitjie]

1 minute ago, DieselnDust said:

Pogi has been the most economical of the top 3

saving energy so he can do backflips into the swimming pool on the rest day

[Shebeen]

29 minutes ago, DieselnDust said:

According to Johan Bruyneel, Pogi has been the most economical of the top 3, expending less calories per kg than Remco and Jonas.

Saw that. is this an actual thing you can make such a definitive scientific call on? I've never looked at calories but figured it's a thumbsuck at best, happy to be schooled here by those in the know

 

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/cars/news/pogacar-s-calorie-consumption-compared-to-the-competition-raises-eyebrows-if-you-can-ride-so-economically/ar-BB1psuVY#:~:text=Bruyneel%3A "Pogacar is still riding,he moves through the peloton.

[NickGM]

35 minutes ago, DieselnDust said:

According to Johan Bruyneel, Pogi has been the most economical of the top 3, expending less calories per kg than Remco and Jonas.

Interesting info, but do you have a source for this? I could only find articles that mentioned Calories only (not per kilo) and there was no mention of Jonas' calorie consumption.

[Mountain Bru]

15 minutes ago, Shebeen said:

Saw that. is this an actual thing you can make such a definitive scientific call on? I've never looked at calories but figured it's a thumbsuck at best, happy to be schooled here by those in the know

 

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/cars/news/pogacar-s-calorie-consumption-compared-to-the-competition-raises-eyebrows-if-you-can-ride-so-economically/ar-BB1psuVY#:~:text=Bruyneel%3A "Pogacar is still riding,he moves through the peloton.

I'm not really clued up on how strava or garmin or wahoo calculate calories burned, but I find this data really questionable, and therefore the conclusions are questionable too. I just find it hard to believe that Pogi burned 40% less calories than Remco on a flat sprint stage, especially seen as Pogi is the heavier rider. 

And on top of that, there was no break on stage 6, and half of the stage was a snooze fest interspersed with cross winds sparking some action. Can't believe there's a 40% difference in calories burned on a day like that.  

Maybe Pogi has his weight set to 35kg on strava to screw with Visma when they check out his calories burned. 🤷‍♂️  

[Bub Marley]

12 hours ago, Mountain Bru said:

I agree.... mostly...
It just looked like Jonas' tactics over the last 9 stages were to stick to Pogi's wheel and not lose time, and save himself for the high mountains that suit him better. I think he pretty much achieved that, even though he obviously would have preferred to not lose time.

I think Remco was hoping for bigger gaps on the TT, and there might have been if he didn't have a paranoia attack and think he punctured, but on the whole, I think he'll be happy with being 33s doing on Pogi. He's also definitely been the 3rd strongest climber in the race so far. 

Roglic has been dropped 100 times in 9 stages, so I don't think he can complain about being 1:36 down on Pogi. If one or 2 things went slightly differently, he could easily be 4 minutes down. 

Pogi on the other hand has been ultra-aggressive and attacked whenever possible. I feel like he and his team (apart from Ayuso and Almeida) have done everything they can to take time, even when it seemed impossible for him to win the stage. I don't think it's an understatement to say he's burned the most energy of the 4 in the last 9 stages. So to only have a 1:15 on Jonas must be less than what they hoped for. 

I think people are sleeping on Roglic. His style is not suited to these punchy stages and let’s not forget he also suffered injuries on that crash. I think he will come into his own on the big mountain stages with that high cadence style. He probably won’t challenge the big 2 but I do feel he’s the best out of the rest and i think his experience will show over someone like Remco in the high mountains.

[Mountain Bru]

3 hours ago, Bub Marley said:

I think people are sleeping on Roglic. His style is not suited to these punchy stages and let’s not forget he also suffered injuries on that crash. I think he will come into his own on the big mountain stages with that high cadence style. He probably won’t challenge the big 2 but I do feel he’s the best out of the rest and i think his experience will show over someone like Remco in the high mountains.

Mate.... Roglic is best known for his punch on steep climbs. He pretty much made a name for himself with his 200m punch at the end of mountain-top finishes. I'm sure 80% of his stage wins are from him out sprinting everyone in the last 200m of a climb. For a long time, only Valverde could really match him, until Pogi arrived on the scene. Even the San Luca climb on stage 2 has historically been a happy hunting ground for him in the past with him stomping to victory multiple times up there. The fact that Jonas and Remco (I think) beat him to the top on stage 2 tells me he's nowhere near where he would need to be to compete with the big guys. I'm a massive Roglic fan, but barring an incident or accident, I don't think he has a chance.  

References on San Luca:
https://www.teamvismaleaseabike.com/image-gallery/news/relive-roglics-victory-in-giro-dellemilia/ (Last year October he beat Pogacar up San Luca)
https://www.reuters.com/article/sports/cycling-roglic-takes-giro-d-italia-lead-with-opening-time-trial-win-idUSKCN1SH0KJ/ (2019 Giro he won the TT up San Luca)
 

Edited July 9 by Mountain Bru
Spelling

[peepeekaitjie]

19 minutes ago, Mountain Bru said:

made a name for himself

Roglic basically invented teleportation on punchy uphills. He hasn't looked his best but this is a 3-week race that is heavily backloaded and he is looking ahead instead of trying to collect a couple of bonis here and there. 

Remco will get covid on the first real mountain, Pogi will explode with Giro in his legs, Vinge will succumb to his injuries, and the true greatest Slovenian cyclist will stand on the top step in Nice

 

[Spinnaroonie]

To me, it seems like Roglic has been racing a bit differently lately. He seems more measured in his efforts. Traditionally, he seemed to struggle towards the end of stage races. I wonder if he's learnt from this and tried to adjust. Battling Remco last year, it appeared as if he 'saved some legs for later'. 

One will never know with him I suppose. He's so likeable that it always sucks to see him blow up at crunch time. 

John Wakfield can mos koppel some data for us  but is most likely rolling his eyes. 

[Danger Dassie]

2 hours ago, DieselnDust said:

According to Johan Bruyneel, Pogi has been the most economical of the top 3, expending less calories per kg than Remco and Jonas.

Sounds a bit bro sciencey, generally enjoy much of the JB insights. But lately his bias is becoming more and more evident, particularly apparent regarding anything EF. 
Starting to show that he's been away from the actual pulse of the sport for too long now IMHO. 

Interested to hear more of the insights from Wiggins though. Between him and GH we seem to have better insights, rest is fast becoming banter. 

[The Ouzo]

50 minutes ago, Spinnaroonie said:

John Wakfield can mos koppel some data for us  but is most likely rolling his eyes. 

My bet is that he is biting his tounge (or typing hands), he probably wants to correct everyone but the risk of revealing info that should not be revealed is to great.

 

I'd love an indepth view of the behind the scenes stuff. Training, nutrition, performance matrixes. I'll probably not understand half of it, but for the stuff I do understand it would be very interesting.

[SwissVan]

2 hours ago, NickGM said:

Interesting info, but do you have a source for this? I could only find articles that mentioned Calories only (not per kilo) and there was no mention of Jonas' calorie consumption.

JB mentioned he got the data from the strava files that he found, so it’s not exactly scientific. Personal I find it difficult to believe strava to that extent…. But then JB knows a lot more than I do about this kind of stuff. 
What I do know is strava is not always accurate…. 💥