Wiggle/CRC future in doubt

[Ozzie NL]

On 10/20/2023 at 3:54 PM, Jewbacca said:

What do you mean?

According to some anecdotal noticings and economic predictions there is nothing wrong.

Pay no attention to the actual happenings, business closures, laying offs of staff etc, that is not a real indicator of things. 

Stats predictions based on assumptions is where the real answer lies!

Don't ever accuse @Jewbacca of sweet talking Hubbers into participating in the Munga fund raising efforts... 😃

 

[Shebeen]

I'm kind of emotionally attached to CRC, mainly because it was the best avenue to actually get bikestuff the lbs couldn;t get from local distributors 15 years ago.

 

knew they were wiggle owned, didn't realise that there is no longer any warehouse in ireland.

also, they own bike24.de too way before any covid/brexit issues

 

https://road.cc/content/news/231147-wigglecrc-confirms-it-has-bought-german-e-commerce-site-bike24

[Jewbacca]

It looks like Orange Bikes is entering administration as well........

Luckily it's not a real thing and the bike industry is in better shape than pre covid.... 🙃

[IceCreamMan]

7 hours ago, Jewbacca said:

It looks like Orange Bikes is entering administration as well........

Luckily it's not a real thing and the bike industry is in better shape than pre covid.... 🙃

You ever hear of the 2 monks. 
 

dotn be a monk. Be Lekker. 
 

then take a minute to read and actually understand the below. 
 

https://www.statista.com/outlook/mmo/bicycles/europe

even in boom times wiggle /crc were running at a loss and even in boom times businesses go bang. 
 

[Frosty]

On 12/13/2023 at 6:26 AM, Shebeen said:

Things shouldn't be sitting around for that long in large quantities, and the obvious way to shift stock like this is discounting to consumers.

25% of my KPI is made up ensuring stock rotation and aging. Discount and sell within 12 months of original purchase.

[Dubber]

On 1/7/2024 at 7:04 AM, IceCreamMan said:

You ever hear of the 2 monks. 
 

dotn be a monk. Be Lekker. 
 

then take a minute to read and actually understand the below. 
 

https://www.statista.com/outlook/mmo/bicycles/europe

even in boom times wiggle /crc were running at a loss and even in boom times businesses go bang. 
 

 "Clearly 'Cycling industry is in a boom' - just have a look at the stats"...

This is what I see from the stats you linked (bear in mind all these numbers are 'FORECASTS'):

Unit Sales:  Down from 2020/21, possibly a touch higher than 2022/23 but no major increase.

Revenue:  Appears to be increasing inline with past few years.  This despite inflation being higher now and the average bike cost increasing more.  I would expect the increase in bike price plus high inflation should lead to a relatively higher income number - which is not the case?  Safe to assume if income is increasing in line with other years but cost of bike/inflation is increasing then profit would be flat (at best) but more than likely decreasing?

Price:  Average price increasing.  Logical, given inflation and the increased demand for Ebikes, along with other factors like increased transports costs etc.  

I'm not sure which of these stats indicate that 'Cycling Industry is Booming'?

 

I can't speak for the European market, but here in the USA the industry is struggling without a doubt.  Excess stock from oversupply following post COVID shortages is being sold at clearance prices.  This glut of stock has bottomed out the 2nd hand market value.  So consumers have the choice of clearance pricing on 2022 model bikes, or can pick up 1 year old 2nd hand bikes for 50% of the original price.  (That is assuming the customer has any disposable cash after all inflationary pressures on day to day cost of living).  

In the above scenario, why would anyone be paying full price for a 2024 bike - especially in the current financial climate?  

Cycling Industry is not in a boom, not here anyway.

Edited January 8, 2024 by Dubber

[ChrisF]

4 hours ago, Dubber said:

 "Clearly 'Cycling industry is in a boom' - just have a look at the stats"...

This is what I see from the stats you linked (bear in mind all these numbers are 'FORECASTS'):

Unit Sales:  Down from 2020/21, possibly a touch higher than 2022/23 but no major increase.

Revenue:  Appears to be increasing inline with past few years.  This despite inflation being higher now and the average bike cost increasing more.  I would expect the increase in bike price plus high inflation should lead to a relatively higher income number - which is not the case?  Safe to assume if income is increasing in line with other years but cost of bike/inflation is increasing then profit would be flat (at best) but more than likely decreasing?

Price:  Average price increasing.  Logical, given inflation and the increased demand for Ebikes, along with other factors like increased transports costs etc.  

I'm not sure which of these stats indicate that 'Cycling Industry is Booming'?

 

I can't speak for the European market, but here in the USA the industry is struggling without a doubt.  Excess stock from oversupply following post COVID shortages is being sold at clearance prices.  This glut of stock has bottomed out the 2nd hand market value.  So consumers have the choice of clearance pricing on 2022 model bikes, or can pick up 1 year old 2nd hand bikes for 50% of the original price.  (That is assuming the customer has any disposable cash after all inflationary pressures on day to day cost of living).  

In the above scenario, why would anyone be paying full price for a 2024 bike - especially in the current financial climate?  

Cycling Industry is not in a boom, not here anyway.

 

Bike Addict is still trying to move 2022 stock.

 

Some R100k bikes marked down 30%.  As you said, why pay sticker price for a 2024 model when you can have essentially the same bike for almost half the price?

 

 

Enough articles in our finacial sections about "cost of living" ...  disposable income is tight at the moment.

 

 

Doubt the term "boom" describes the current bike market in SA.

[Hairy]

On 12/13/2023 at 7:26 AM, BaGearA said:

What supplier in the world will take back stock that was paid for 5/10 years prior and then give credit.

 

Refund is hopeless but wanting a credit is down right desperate especially since that supplier is facing the same challenges given they share a industry.

 

Bone head move imo 

 

Sell for cost - 10% locally exclusive 

 

That cuts out shipping admin and unless its 10 million kenda tyres they might actually recoup some money 

Could it just be a "step" in the process of closing down the business where they can later say that they have tried all avenues to generate income off old stock that are legally available to them and so doing get to write off some of the company debt?

I am no accountant, so shooting from the hip here.

[IceCreamMan]

7 hours ago, Dubber said:

 "Clearly 'Cycling industry is in a boom' - just have a look at the stats"...

This is what I see from the stats you linked (bear in mind all these numbers are 'FORECASTS'):

Unit Sales:  Down from 2020/21, possibly a touch higher than 2022/23 but no major increase.

Revenue:  Appears to be increasing inline with past few years.  This despite inflation being higher now and the average bike cost increasing more.  I would expect the increase in bike price plus high inflation should lead to a relatively higher income number - which is not the case?  Safe to assume if income is increasing in line with other years but cost of bike/inflation is increasing then profit would be flat (at best) but more than likely decreasing?

Price:  Average price increasing.  Logical, given inflation and the increased demand for Ebikes, along with other factors like increased transports costs etc.  

I'm not sure which of these stats indicate that 'Cycling Industry is Booming'?

 

I can't speak for the European market, but here in the USA the industry is struggling without a doubt.  Excess stock from oversupply following post COVID shortages is being sold at clearance prices.  This glut of stock has bottomed out the 2nd hand market value.  So consumers have the choice of clearance pricing on 2022 model bikes, or can pick up 1 year old 2nd hand bikes for 50% of the original price.  (That is assuming the customer has any disposable cash after all inflationary pressures on day to day cost of living).  

In the above scenario, why would anyone be paying full price for a 2024 bike - especially in the current financial climate?  

Cycling Industry is not in a boom, not here anyway.

Let’s acknowledge that the Covid peaks were artificially created. Let’s also acknowledge that bicycle and component manufacturers were aware that it would be just that but chose to up production to meet that demand. Let’s also acknowledge that these manufacturers were well aware that it would result in a period of lesser demand and that they knowing this chose to step up production for the short term gains. 
 

the stats are projections yes, but these are carefully analysed and thought out stats and these indicate an increase. For sure one MUST cater for inflation but even then the cycling industry is NOT doomed. Far from it , and just the opposite. Millions and millions of bicycles are going to be sold and used . The first world in Europe is embracing non fossil fuelled transport.  
 

wiggle/crc which this thread is based on was making LOSSES, huge losses even before Covid. It is/was a doomed model irrespective of Brexit or Covid or any other factor. It was a bad business. Bad businesses fail, even in boom times.  Evan’s cycling was closing stores here in 2017 and 2018 as well. 
 

the hub and I dare say the American market are probably focussed on LSM 9 and 10 products and this niche might be in trouble for a while.. I think I conceded that previously but the cycling industry is certainly NOT in decline or going bust. Far from it.  
 

Orange bicycles is a high end British made brand with a cult following. It’s in trouble like many British manufacturing businesses but we all know how British manufacturing businesses have gone in the past. It will survive I suspect. 

remember Nokia, brilliant business, cell phone market was booming, yet they essentially failed and failed to capitalise. Was it due to the market? No. Was it due to their business model and products? Absolutely yes. 
 

excess stock was foreseen, it’s a temporary situation, capitalise on it. I have. The bicycle market extends far beyond our fancy carbon frames and dual sus bikes. Let’s acknowledge that too. Watch the big tours this year, they will be well supported, the manufacturers will be spending on advertising etc. and those consumers with the means will buy the latest 13 gear group set that changes via thought control. That particular niche will survive too  

 

Edited January 9, 2024 by IceCreamMan

[Jewbacca]

3 minutes ago, IceCreamMan said:

Let’s acknowledge that the Covid peaks were artificially created. Let’s also acknowledge that bicycle and component manufacturers were aware that it would be just that but chose to up production to meet that demand. Let’s also acknowledge that these manufacturers were well aware that it would result in a period of lesser demand and that they knowing this chose to step up production for the short term gains. 
 

the stats are projections yes, but these are carefully analysed and thought out stats and these indicate an increase. For sure one MUST cater for inflation but even then the cycling industry is NOT doomed. Far from it , and just the opposite. Millions and millions of bicycles are going to be sold and used . The first world in Europe is embracing non fossil fuelled transport.  
 

wiggle/crc which this thread is based on was making LOSSES, huge losses even before Covid. It is/was a doomed model irrespective of Brexit or Covid or any other factor. It was a bad business. Bad businesses fail, even in boom times.  Evan’s cycling was closing stores here in 2017 and 2018 as well. 
 

the hub and I dare say the American market are probably focussed on LSM 9 and 10 products and this niche might be in trouble for a while.. I think I conceded that previously but the cycling industry is certainly NOT in decline or going bust. Far from it.  
 

Orange bicycles is a high end British made brand with a cult following. It’s in trouble like many British manufacturing businesses but we all know how British manufacturing businesses have gone in the past. It will survive I suspect. 

remember Nokia, brilliant business, cell phone market was booming, yet they essentially failed and failed to capitalise. Was it due to the market? No. Was it due to their business model and products? Absolutely yes. 
 

excess stock was foreseen, it’s a temporary situation, capitalise on it. I have  

 

I think here is the rub.

The entire bike industry hasn't evolved. The big brands still use import middle men who add their own big slice to the pie and DTC brands have no sway because they have no 'local infrastructure'.

One can't ignore the sheer number of cycling and cycling related companies that have or are busy closing their doors or entering administration over the last 15 months.

It isn't just a case of those particular businesses were bad. Too many very different businesses have gone under. 

As with any fluid industry there will always be troughs and waves, this is only natural. the one thing that is apparent is the equation of the parabolic graph. This is a particularly deep trough after a particularly large wave, which is having a telling effect. 

No one is saying the bike industry won't survive. There will always be bicycles. But to say it isn't currently in trouble/struggling because of one particular set of stats while ignoring the real life goings ons is slightly blinkered

 

 

 

[IceCreamMan]

7 minutes ago, Jewbacca said:

I think here is the rub.

The entire bike industry hasn't evolved. The big brands still use import middle men who add their own big slice to the pie and DTC brands have no sway because they have no 'local infrastructure'.

One can't ignore the sheer number of cycling and cycling related companies that have or are busy closing their doors or entering administration over the last 15 months.

It isn't just a case of those particular businesses were bad. Too many very different businesses have gone under. 

As with any fluid industry there will always be troughs and waves, this is only natural. the one thing that is apparent is the equation of the parabolic graph. This is a particularly deep trough after a particularly large wave, which is having a telling effect. 

No one is saying the bike industry won't survive. There will always be bicycles. But to say it isn't currently in trouble/struggling because of one particular set of stats while ignoring the real life goings ons is slightly blinkered

 

 

 

I think maybe the LSM 9 and 10 market is undergoing a rough time. 
 

to say the cycling industry is disingenuous, the cycling industry extends far beyond the premium brands like Orange. 
 

but as shown, wiggle/crc were making HUGE losses even before Covid and Brexit. To use it as a canary for the cycling industry makes no sense. 
 

edit: and we agree , the bicycle industry has not evolved to meet the market demands effectively, the closing of businesses etc is evolution too. Only the most versatile survive. 

Edited January 9, 2024 by IceCreamMan

[Jewbacca]

6 minutes ago, IceCreamMan said:

I think maybe the LSM 9 and 10 market is undergoing a rough time. 
 

to say the cycling industry is disingenuous, the cycling industry extends far beyond the premium brands like Orange. 
 

but as shown, wiggle/crc were making HUGE losses even before Covid and Brexit. To use it as a canary for the cycling industry makes no sense. 

I'm more referring to all of the other cycle related companies, bike brands, clothing companies, distributers etc that are closing or have closed down over the last 18 months ish.

Some pretty established companies, not just in the UK.

Even Bianchi is taking massive hits. 

The stats show numbers, not real world effect.

Much like the surfing industry in the early 2000s. Many established board brands and apparel companies went belly up after cheap, mass produced boards and clothes flooded the market. It still hasn't recovered roughly 20 years later. 

Surfboards and apparel are still being sold in volumes, but the real world impact of that shift left thousands unemployed globally and still has the overall industry on a knife edge with brands being bought and sold like pass the parcel at a 5 year old's birthday party.

The overall stats DON'T show the real world issues. Even things like logistic companies tied to the bike industry are now ded.

It's a far reaching thing with the statistical numbers 'void' likely to be filled by 3 big brand bohemouths.

Anyway, my comment above about Orange wasn't meant to respark the debate between spreadsheet balance and real world consequence, which I think is being ignored a bit

[IceCreamMan]

12 minutes ago, Jewbacca said:

I'm more referring to all of the other cycle related companies, bike brands, clothing companies, distributers etc that are closing or have closed down over the last 18 months ish.

Some pretty established companies, not just in the UK.

Even Bianchi is taking massive hits. 

The stats show numbers, not real world effect.

Much like the surfing industry in the early 2000s. Many established board brands and apparel companies went belly up after cheap, mass produced boards and clothes flooded the market. It still hasn't recovered roughly 20 years later. 

Surfboards and apparel are still being sold in volumes, but the real world impact of that shift left thousands unemployed globally and still has the overall industry on a knife edge with brands being bought and sold like pass the parcel at a 5 year old's birthday party.

The overall stats DON'T show the real world issues. Even things like logistic companies tied to the bike industry are now ded.

It's a far reaching thing with the statistical numbers 'void' likely to be filled by 3 big brand bohemouths.

Anyway, my comment above about Orange wasn't meant to respark the debate between spreadsheet balance and real world consequence, which I think is being ignored a bit

Surf board industry indicates huge growth in the coming years 😂

even bigger growth than the cycling industry. 
 

Have a groovy day. 

[Jewbacca]

1 minute ago, IceCreamMan said:

Surf board industry indicates huge growth in the coming years 😂

even bigger growth than the cycling industry. 
 

Have a groovy day. 

Yet the industry itself, pro tour, QT etc is in absolute disarray. A majority of the companies that make up the backbone of the industry are really struggling.

It is the exact reason I used that example and said as much. 

16 minutes ago, Jewbacca said:

Surfboards and apparel are still being sold in volumes, but the real world impact of that shift left thousands unemployed globally

Reading beyond the stats and projection and actually looking at WHO and WHAT is providing the numbers is my entire point.

I guess this is a similar scenario to a big chain company. After closing down 6 stores and leaving 500 people without jobs, the financial analyst in his booth says 'numbers are balanced'.

While that may be true statistically, it doesn't look at the real world situation. 

9 minutes ago, IceCreamMan said:

 

Have a groovy day. 

You too 

[IceCreamMan]

45 minutes ago, Jewbacca said:

Yet the industry itself, pro tour, QT etc is in absolute disarray. A majority of the companies that make up the backbone of the industry are really struggling.

It is the exact reason I used that example and said as much. 

Reading beyond the stats and projection and actually looking at WHO and WHAT is providing the numbers is my entire point.

I guess this is a similar scenario to a big chain company. After closing down 6 stores and leaving 500 people without jobs, the financial analyst in his booth says 'numbers are balanced'.

While that may be true statistically, it doesn't look at the real world situation. 

You too 

I reckon the surf board industry and the cycling industry will self correct in time. Both are healthy Outdoor activities and esp in the west where we are getting more downtime and have higher disposable income they will flourish. Which sector of the market is the most profitable will determine where the focus lies. There will however always be the niche suppliers. 
 

the golf industry as an example is always on an upward trajectory even though no one I know plays golf, its demise has been predicted for decades yet here we are. 
 

edit: as a side note and one that surprised me, UK has a huge surfing industry, was completely gobsmacked when I first moved here. 
 

 

Edited January 9, 2024 by IceCreamMan

[Dubber]

8 hours ago, IceCreamMan said:

Let’s acknowledge that the Covid peaks were artificially created. Let’s also acknowledge that bicycle and component manufacturers were aware that it would be just that but chose to up production to meet that demand. Let’s also acknowledge that these manufacturers were well aware that it would result in a period of lesser demand and that they knowing this chose to step up production for the short term gains. 
 

the stats are projections yes, but these are carefully analysed and thought out stats and these indicate an increase. For sure one MUST cater for inflation but even then the cycling industry is NOT doomed. Far from it , and just the opposite. Millions and millions of bicycles are going to be sold and used . The first world in Europe is embracing non fossil fuelled transport.  
 

wiggle/crc which this thread is based on was making LOSSES, huge losses even before Covid. It is/was a doomed model irrespective of Brexit or Covid or any other factor. It was a bad business. Bad businesses fail, even in boom times.  Evan’s cycling was closing stores here in 2017 and 2018 as well. 
 

the hub and I dare say the American market are probably focussed on LSM 9 and 10 products and this niche might be in trouble for a while.. I think I conceded that previously but the cycling industry is certainly NOT in decline or going bust. Far from it.  
 

Orange bicycles is a high end British made brand with a cult following. It’s in trouble like many British manufacturing businesses but we all know how British manufacturing businesses have gone in the past. It will survive I suspect. 

remember Nokia, brilliant business, cell phone market was booming, yet they essentially failed and failed to capitalise. Was it due to the market? No. Was it due to their business model and products? Absolutely yes. 
 

excess stock was foreseen, it’s a temporary situation, capitalise on it. I have. The bicycle market extends far beyond our fancy carbon frames and dual sus bikes. Let’s acknowledge that too. Watch the big tours this year, they will be well supported, the manufacturers will be spending on advertising etc. and those consumers with the means will buy the latest 13 gear group set that changes via thought control. That particular niche will survive too  

 

I don't disagree with any of the points here.  But I do think, in the context of this discussion being on TheHub, my interpretation of 'the cycling industry' is different to yours.   While I can't speak for everyone here, given the post is on a forum where the majority of readers would consider any bike with less than 21 gears and coil shock entry level, lumping mass produced commuters et al into the discussion is out of context (for the original discussion) imho.  Not incorrect, but out of context...

Anyway, no use flogging a dead horse...

An observation from across the seas here in the USA (which you may or may not be seeing in UK/SA yet):  The rise of the e-bike has been staggering over the last 12 months.

I'd say, 50% of our neighborhood has at least 1 ebike in the household now compared to nothing 12 / 18 months ago.  Parent's that would normally buy a $150 'scott' entry level MTB for their kids school commute are now buying $400/$500 no name ebikes.  The rise has been exponential.

Tying this back into the original thread:  the vast majority of these bikes are no name brands sold on online retailers.  Very few are typical 'big name' bike brands bought through your LBS.  So yes, lots of $'s being spent on bikes, but little going to your typical LBS and even less going to the traditional bike bike brands.   I have no idea actual margins on these bikes and may simply be a case of loss leaders and hoping to make money on replacement batteries? (Razor blade strategy)...

See image attached - 1800+ sold in the last month just on these two versions.  To re-iterate the point, yes, all these sales go into your 'cycling industry' stats.  But again, I can't speak for everyone on the TheHub' but I doubt these would be on any Hub Member shopping list....  

All about context I guess...