Absa Cape Epic 2022

[Jewbacca]

Why does it need to change?

As long as they sell most of the entries, what does it matter how many finish?

I have done a number of adventure races with a less than 40% finish rate. I ran a 100 miler in Spain years ago with a historical 37% finish rate but it's sold out every year. 

IMHO they should allow the pro's to race as individuals. That way they can bring 3 or 4 guys to support 1 racer, give it more of a grand tour feeling and make it cheaper/easier for the GC guy to have back up. as 3 riders offers 2 full support bikes for the leader.

It might make the racing more exciting too having different domestiques for different profiles and conditions. 

We basically watch the racing at the front and their business model is to use that to sell out the field, so maybe it's time for a shake up?

But in my very humble opinion, nothing 'needs' to change until they stop selling out. Which doesn't look the case for now

[DieselnDust]

1 hour ago, Jewbacca said:

Why does it need to change?

As long as they sell most of the entries, what does it matter how many finish?

I have done a number of adventure races with a less than 40% finish rate. I ran a 100 miler in Spain years ago with a historical 37% finish rate but it's sold out every year. 

IMHO they should allow the pro's to race as individuals. That way they can bring 3 or 4 guys to support 1 racer, give it more of a grand tour feeling and make it cheaper/easier for the GC guy to have back up. as 3 riders offers 2 full support bikes for the leader.

It might make the racing more exciting too having different domestiques for different profiles and conditions. 

We basically watch the racing at the front and their business model is to use that to sell out the field, so maybe it's time for a shake up?

But in my very humble opinion, nothing 'needs' to change until they stop selling out. Which doesn't look the case for now

I completely agree with the bolded bit. I had a conversation with a pal of mine who has ridden a few and not finished a couple. He's pretty much a back marker and has no intention or aspiration to be more than that despite the risk this brings to completing the course. He recons if they make it too hard they will lose their market. I disagree with this wholeheartedly as I believe that those looking for an easier ride are in the minority, most enter for the challenge and the desire to be a better mountain biker at the end of it or at least have a bigger mtb ego.

the suggestion of qualifying criteria came up as far back as 2007 due to the concern for riders health. Already it was noted than people were arriving at the startline (Prologue only came into being in 2008)i in 2005, 06 and 07 unprepared and loading the medical facilities in the first 3-4days. Thereafter the medical tent became less busy.

The softer solution was the prologue with a 3hr cut off which i think is still too generous. Seeding riders appropriately was the main objective but also a soft attempt to weed out the unprepared to protect them from themselves. Back in the days of the Knysna start we had a mass start on Day 1 and seeded groups only from Stage 2. From 2008 the Prologue sorted the start seeding.

However, if its too easy then its not Epic. There has to be attrition or its not the toughest MTB stage race anylonger and that cannot change. They do have tools at their disposal to tweak the format if they need and I am sure that after 18 editions they know what they want out of each event edition.

Edited March 31, 2022 by DieselnDust

[J Wakefield]

18 hours ago, Trashy said:

This is such a useless exercise. There is simply no way to account for all the variables without the reason for every single dropout for every year. Even then, it's not a straightforward task.

Maybe after 2 years of isolation people's immune systems aren't as strong as before and they picked up bugs more easily. Maybe there's a more violent jippo bug going around.

Maybe Covid has had an unknown long term effect on some of the entrants.

 

Great post and valid information on variables and there is as experiencing long covid in people who have been effected. 

[J Wakefield]

19 hours ago, DieselnDust said:

another way to look at it is total time in the saddle for the sharp end, the midfield and the just-in-timers (JiTs) [not to be confused with Gits]

or

total calories consumed (impossible to obtain)

or average speed across the spectrum of sharpend, Midfield and JiTs

Calories consumed is what person is taking in

Calories expended is what a person is using 

When you want to monitor or track workload it is calories expended over a stage or event.

To track calorie consumption is pretty easy to obtain. 

[milky4130]

6 minutes ago, J Wakefield said:

Calories consumed is what person is taking in

Calories expended is what a person is using 

When you want to monitor or track workload it is calories expended over a stage or event.

To track calorie consumption is pretty easy to obtain. 

how accurate can the calories expended be when your heart rate is dropping every day in a Stage race?

[bolt67]

Lot of corporate / celeb entries - if you  don't pay out your own hard earned cash do you take it as seriously ..... ?

[DieselnDust]

3 minutes ago, J Wakefield said:

Calories consumed is what person is taking in

Calories expended is what a person is using 

When you want to monitor or track workload it is calories expended over a stage or event.

To track calorie consumption is pretty easy to obtain. 

yeah sorry thank for the correction, auto insert turned off now 🤣.

It started with an article i'm writing on fuel consumption.

So yes tracking the calories burned is a little difficult endeavour since weight, power output might not be accurately know to anyone not in the inner circle of trust and then the physiological efficiency isn't known either. S

We can make assumptions of course and aslong as the basis for the assumptions are the same across the sample riders then it is  possible to establish a useful pattern. We of course don't know the condition of the riders relative to themselves year to year.

[dev null]

23 minutes ago, bolt67 said:

Lot of corporate / celeb entries - if you  don't pay out your own hard earned cash do you take it as seriously ..... ?

I agree. I think there are a few that just wants to be seen on the Prologue start line.

[J Wakefield]

27 minutes ago, milky4130 said:

how accurate can the calories expended be when your heart rate is dropping every day in a Stage race?

When done correctly it is accurate. Do you want to do something like this or this detailed for Sani? No, Tour de cap? No.
For example over 21 days at the Tour our riders do not lose or pick up weight, we stay stable. yes sure, a top or increase ever so slightly here or there but in general nothing. 

[jcza]

Leave as is but do away with corporate hospitality (I know, unlikely to happen) 

Talking about kcals - I think it was Alexander Kristoff that gained 6kgs during week 1 of the TdF some years back. 

[J Wakefield]

2 minutes ago, jcza said:

Leave as is but do away with corporate hospitality (I know, unlikely to happen) 

Talking about kcals - I think it was Alexander Kristoff that gained 6kgs during week 1 of the TdF some years back. 

2019 and it was not 6kg. Not close either.
The reason was nutritional intake in terms of CHO per hour and was not periodised. Since 2020 that has never been a issue 

[jcza]

4 minutes ago, J Wakefield said:

2019 and it was not 6kg. Not close either.
The reason was nutritional intake in terms of CHO per hour and was not periodised. Since 2020 that has never been a issue 

Probably sensationalized By Cycling News: 

Now Alexander Kristoff has revealed very significant weight gain during the opening week of the Tour.

“There are many things that happened. Ultimately, the whole squad was too heavy,” he has now told cyclingnews.

“I maybe started the Tour at 77.9kg and after a few days I was close to 84kg. Then it’s difficult to perform.”

[eala]

I had no surprises from riders i followed .The well prepared made it , the under prepared did not .With under prepared i mean a very fit roadie /spinning bike rider that had not done a trail seeker even . Could not ride the downhills fast to make up time after the climbs and fell plenty times .The mentioned last lion rode with us last year .He was already carrying more weight than he should have. Another friend got a free entry a week before the start ,but he has an athletic background and was already fit .Their team made it in good time  .The only thing i would change about the whole event is to have a Solo category

Edited March 31, 2022 by eala

[DieselnDust]

2 minutes ago, jcza said:

Probably sensationalized By Cycling News: 

Now Alexander Kristoff has revealed very significant weight gain during the opening week of the Tour.

“There are many things that happened. Ultimately, the whole squad was too heavy,” he has now told cyclingnews.

“I maybe started the Tour at 77.9kg and after a few days I was close to 84kg. Then it’s difficult to perform.”

that sort of weight gain is entirely possible as its mostly water retention but over a week? Surely some jouralistic license is used? Maybe it was 10days i.e. halway through the Tour?.

However one would have to be extremely negligent on the dietary front to let this happen. Surely the rider would be feeling sick as a result??

So I'm with John on this it couldn't be that severe. Maybe half that? 3-kg

[jcza]

2 minutes ago, DieselnDust said:

that sort of weight gain is entirely possible as its mostly water retention but over a week? Surely some jouralistic license is used? Maybe it was 10days i.e. halway through the Tour?.

However one would have to be extremely negligent on the dietary front to let this happen. Surely the rider would be feeling sick as a result??

So I'm with John on this it couldn't be that severe. Maybe half that? 3-kg

Who knows? Something wasn't right with the team, Dan Martin was also moaning. 

[DieselnDust]

9 minutes ago, eala said:

I had no surprises from riders i followed .The well prepared made it , the under prepared did not .With under prepared i mean a very fit roadie /spinning bike rider that had not done a trailseeker even . Could not ride the downhills fast to make up time after the climbs and fell plenty times .The mentioned last lion rode with us last year .He was already carrying more weight than he should have. Another friend got a free entry a week before the start ,but he has an athletic background and was already fit .Their team made it in good time  

and even more coming into the 2022 race...