Absa Cape Epic 2022

[DieselnDust]

another way to look at it is total time in the saddle for the sharp end, the midfield and the just-in-timers (JiTs) [not to be confused with Gits]

or

total calories consumed (impossible to obtain)

or average speed across the spectrum of sharpend, Midfield and JiTs

Edited March 30, 2022 by DieselnDust

[TheoG]

1 minute ago, M L said:

Or we got soft over the years.

Maybe, but I don't think all of the double DNF percentage compared to last year can be attributed to "softness" ... .

[Old and Slow]

This is such a useless exercise. There is simply no way to account for all the variables without the reason for every single dropout for every year. Even then, it's not a straightforward task.

Maybe after 2 years of isolation people's immune systems aren't as strong as before and they picked up bugs more easily. Maybe there's a more violent jippo bug going around.

Maybe Covid has had an unknown long term effect on some of the entrants.

 

[gerriemtb]

I was on holiday during the Epic and maintained a low profile on social media to avoid too much news on the race. I just caught up with watching the highlights of all the stages - what an event! Must say the coverage is on a high level. I enjoyed it a lot.

Back to your discussion: I flew through all the stages in a couple of hours with a simple nutrition plan of beer and biltong, so I don't think this year was too tough  

[wessie12]

I was privileged to be involved at the Epic this year as crew member and spend every day at various sections alongside the route. Apart from the acceptable dropout rate from the heat, illness,  mechanicals, crashes etc I was stunned at number of riders that pitch up genuinely under prepared. There is definitely a percentage of riders that under estimate the Epic either by poor fitness/conditioning and shockingly poor skill levels.  Everyday there was a couple of really big guys at the back end that did amazingly well in difficult conditions and if they can manage to be prepared there's no excuse. 

[Gunston]

Having serious envy during the race for the fancy treatment the guys received in the ABSA VIP tents… whats the trick, how does one get in on that action?

[DieselnDust]

4 hours ago, Trashy said:

This is such a useless exercise. There is simply no way to account for all the variables without the reason for every single dropout for every year. Even then, it's not a straightforward task.

Maybe after 2 years of isolation people's immune systems aren't as strong as before and they picked up bugs more easily. Maybe there's a more violent jippo bug going around.

Maybe Covid has had an unknown long term effect on some of the entrants.

 

valid points, hence there only true measure is to look at time in the saddle for a riders who done as many as possible.

To me they're all hard, really hard. More meters of climbing doesn't make it harder than km's of sand or unrideable terrain. Its going to be hard and yo better be prepared that's really all you need to know.

But if you are going to compare then at least compare apples with apples

I'm not convince drop out rate is a good measure anyway but it does tell a story.

Calories burned

average speed

a combination of the above will start to reveal the truth because then we're looking at the whole painting no just one brush stroke

[eala]

The way i see it this year is that there were guys i know that obtained an entry that would have not been interested in the past because of the difficulty to get such an entry .They could ,would not have prepared like i did in the past due to very few pre events during the year .When the heat hit day one,i knew they would be in trouble and they did not make it past halfway of day two and three .The riders that have pedigree ,having years of mtbing under their belt and have done many stage races also suffered ,but managed to grind the first three stages away and made it to the end .The start this year exposed bad prep very early, where in the past it happened only later .The few times that i have been caught on a mtb in extreme heat have not been pleasant and there is nothing that can really prepare you for that .Last year the queen stage was stage five and the back markers got caught in a rainstorm halfway on the mountain .Average speed drops and things got messy and really difficult 

Edited March 31, 2022 by eala

[Tatt]

Has anyone done the sums of the m/km climbed for each event. That is a good estimate of how much you are going to k*k, especially if you are one of the back of pack.

After that you can factor in heat, sand, terrain, etc. 

Out of interest, lots of rain also makes it k*k to ride (2014 Day 2 & 2018 Day 3), when everything is covered in mud and you end up using all your water to try and keep the chain clean..

[wolver]

14 hours ago, wessie12 said:

I was privileged to be involved at the Epic this year as crew member and spend every day at various sections alongside the route. Apart from the acceptable dropout rate from the heat, illness,  mechanicals, crashes etc I was stunned at number of riders that pitch up genuinely under prepared. There is definitely a percentage of riders that under estimate the Epic either by poor fitness/conditioning and shockingly poor skill levels.  Everyday there was a couple of really big guys at the back end that did amazingly well in difficult conditions and if they can manage to be prepared there's no excuse. 

Interesting you mention the lack of preparation. I can MAYBE understand underestimating it at the first attempt, but in the results I saw a rider that did not finish his first 4 attempts, finished one and then didn't finish 2 subsequent attempts. Obviously there could be more to his story, but that seems like banging your head against the wall! Then again, maybe he gets a free entry every time, doesn't take it seriously and feels nothing to bail when the going gets tough. To me it burns either way... wasting money or wasted opportunity🙋‍♂️  

[DieselnDust]

33 minutes ago, wolver said:

Interesting you mention the lack of preparation. I can MAYBE understand underestimating it at the first attempt, but in the results I saw a rider that did not finish his first 4 attempts, finished one and then didn't finish 2 subsequent attempts. Obviously there could be more to his story, but that seems like banging your head against the wall! Then again, maybe he gets a free entry every time, doesn't take it seriously and feels nothing to bail when the going gets tough. To me it burns either way... wasting money or wasted opportunity🙋‍♂️  

via the grapevine I heard that one of the Lion dropped out due to a lack of preparation. He's been flirting with disaster for some time, relying on last years fitness to get him through and this year it bit and we're down to 3. They get free entries hence they ride every year.

Not sure what to make of people who don't respect the event and simply throw money or their bodies at it for giggles when there's probably a million mtber' out there dying for an opportunity to ride it.

Should qualifying criteria be a pre-requisite for acceptance of your entry? I don't know what the answer is.

Many of the riders didn't prep as they would have. Two pals from the UK were definitely not in the same shape they were in 2019 an admitted as much. Others were in the form of their life and nerves got to them and they struggled the first 4 days.

There were peeps at the back chasing cut of that were in shape but not fit shape .

As the entry fee becomes more unattainable I don't see the general fitness of the amateurs getting better

[wolver]

2 minutes ago, DieselnDust said:

via the grapevine I heard that one of the Lion dropped out due to a lack of preparation. He's been flirting with disaster for some time, relying on last years fitness to get him through and this year it bit and we're down to 3. They get free entries hence they ride every year.

Not sure what to make of people who don't respect the event and simply throw money or their bodies at it for giggles when there's probably a million mtber' out there dying for an opportunity to ride it.

Should qualifying criteria be a pre-requisite for acceptance of your entry? I don't know what the answer is.

Many of the riders didn't prep as they would have. Two pals from the UK were definitely not in the same shape they were in 2019 an admitted as much. Others were in the form of their life and nerves got to them and they struggled the first 4 days.

There were peeps at the back chasing cut of that were in shape but not fit shape .

As the entry fee becomes more unattainable I don't see the general fitness of the amateurs getting better

I wonder if the shorter time from entry to event (October 2021 to March 2022?, compared to the normal March to March) played a factor in preparation for this year's event. Skimping on the base work perhaps.

How would qualifying work though? 3 day stage race under a certain time? But what about the fit/prepared entrants that are just slow. I don't think the race needs to be only for "fast" riders... especially because we'll probably be old and slow by the time we've worked a lifetime to afford the entry😋 

[Jewbacca]

Why does it need to change?

As long as they sell most of the entries, what does it matter how many finish?

I have done a number of adventure races with a less than 40% finish rate. I ran a 100 miler in Spain years ago with a historical 37% finish rate but it's sold out every year. 

IMHO they should allow the pro's to race as individuals. That way they can bring 3 or 4 guys to support 1 racer, give it more of a grand tour feeling and make it cheaper/easier for the GC guy to have back up. as 3 riders offers 2 full support bikes for the leader.

It might make the racing more exciting too having different domestiques for different profiles and conditions. 

We basically watch the racing at the front and their business model is to use that to sell out the field, so maybe it's time for a shake up?

But in my very humble opinion, nothing 'needs' to change until they stop selling out. Which doesn't look the case for now

[DieselnDust]

1 hour ago, Jewbacca said:

Why does it need to change?

As long as they sell most of the entries, what does it matter how many finish?

I have done a number of adventure races with a less than 40% finish rate. I ran a 100 miler in Spain years ago with a historical 37% finish rate but it's sold out every year. 

IMHO they should allow the pro's to race as individuals. That way they can bring 3 or 4 guys to support 1 racer, give it more of a grand tour feeling and make it cheaper/easier for the GC guy to have back up. as 3 riders offers 2 full support bikes for the leader.

It might make the racing more exciting too having different domestiques for different profiles and conditions. 

We basically watch the racing at the front and their business model is to use that to sell out the field, so maybe it's time for a shake up?

But in my very humble opinion, nothing 'needs' to change until they stop selling out. Which doesn't look the case for now

I completely agree with the bolded bit. I had a conversation with a pal of mine who has ridden a few and not finished a couple. He's pretty much a back marker and has no intention or aspiration to be more than that despite the risk this brings to completing the course. He recons if they make it too hard they will lose their market. I disagree with this wholeheartedly as I believe that those looking for an easier ride are in the minority, most enter for the challenge and the desire to be a better mountain biker at the end of it or at least have a bigger mtb ego.

the suggestion of qualifying criteria came up as far back as 2007 due to the concern for riders health. Already it was noted than people were arriving at the startline (Prologue only came into being in 2008)i in 2005, 06 and 07 unprepared and loading the medical facilities in the first 3-4days. Thereafter the medical tent became less busy.

The softer solution was the prologue with a 3hr cut off which i think is still too generous. Seeding riders appropriately was the main objective but also a soft attempt to weed out the unprepared to protect them from themselves. Back in the days of the Knysna start we had a mass start on Day 1 and seeded groups only from Stage 2. From 2008 the Prologue sorted the start seeding.

However, if its too easy then its not Epic. There has to be attrition or its not the toughest MTB stage race anylonger and that cannot change. They do have tools at their disposal to tweak the format if they need and I am sure that after 18 editions they know what they want out of each event edition.

Edited March 31, 2022 by DieselnDust

[J Wakefield]

18 hours ago, Trashy said:

This is such a useless exercise. There is simply no way to account for all the variables without the reason for every single dropout for every year. Even then, it's not a straightforward task.

Maybe after 2 years of isolation people's immune systems aren't as strong as before and they picked up bugs more easily. Maybe there's a more violent jippo bug going around.

Maybe Covid has had an unknown long term effect on some of the entrants.

 

Great post and valid information on variables and there is as experiencing long covid in people who have been effected. 

[J Wakefield]

19 hours ago, DieselnDust said:

another way to look at it is total time in the saddle for the sharp end, the midfield and the just-in-timers (JiTs) [not to be confused with Gits]

or

total calories consumed (impossible to obtain)

or average speed across the spectrum of sharpend, Midfield and JiTs

Calories consumed is what person is taking in

Calories expended is what a person is using 

When you want to monitor or track workload it is calories expended over a stage or event.

To track calorie consumption is pretty easy to obtain.