Is the 2nd hand market dead?

[Jacko18]

2 minutes ago, Cyclewizz said:

Got to agree with you here, the asking prices are crazy (IMO). Notice that majority of it doesn't sell, 4 weeks go buy and the ad gets re-posted.

The well priced stuff (carbon rim brake with 10spd) for like R9k sell within a week or 2.

The interest rates have also had an effect on affordability, maybe the high end new market is different. Being in Winter the market also normally slows down but come Spring and with even more interest rate hikes on the way and the Rand tumbling there's probably going to be a breaking point. 

What you are saying, is so obvious.  I have a habit of browsing bikehub for no reason.  Often.  So i see for years what's going on.  And those who say prices are low, really confuse me.  Because I don't see that at all. 

[Blokman]

A year ago I paid 40k for a 2019 dual sus in absolute mint condition. This after browsing the classifieds daily. I thought it was a little high , but it was the right bike at the right time.

The exact same model was advertised here a week ago for 27 k. I looked at bikes daily for over a year and in the range 25 to 45 k I think the prices have come down.

[DanMan]

I think there is ceiling price of around 40k for a secondhand bike. Any higher and the buyer could just consider buying new even if it's a lower model. I don't see people spending 100K on secondhand bike even if it was new 200K plus.

I do think people need to realize that market value has a cap for 2nd hand bikes. You would be lucky if you can get more than 50% of the original price of your bike. If you want to sell you need to be comfortable selling at a lower price than what you expect your bike is worth. That might be the only offers you get...

Edited May 10, 2023 by DanMan

[Shebeen]

1 hour ago, Jacko18 said:

But just look at what a dual sus alloy 29er is going for these days.  And I'm not talking new models.  They are going for what dual sus 29er carbon bikes were going for 2 years back. 

 

Look at old carbon rim brake bikes.  With 10 speed. Going for 15 to 20k.  Not sure where you are shopping 

 

1 hour ago, Jacko18 said:

This is exactly what I'm saying.  The asking prices are insane 

 

52 minutes ago, Jacko18 said:

What you are saying, is so obvious.  I have a habit of browsing bikehub for no reason.  Often.  So i see for years what's going on.  And those who say prices are low, really confuse me.  Because I don't see that at all. 

Ok, so you're an armchair economist then? Basing your data on asking price is very flimsy. The value of a second hand bike very much follows that of a new bike's listed price, not what it was worth two years ago. This is well known(and studied) in the motor industry, and why listed car prices never ever come down even if market forces predict they should. (10 points for guessing why).

You'd get much better info by speaking to the second hand dealers who have first hand knowledge of the trends from conducting multiple transactions.

 

But since you started the topic, here's a question. What do you define by the market being "dead"?

 

[MTBRIDER1234]

1 hour ago, Shebeen said:

Supply and demand determine what something is worth in an efficient market. You've just described how you don't understand it.

Generally speaking, I have no time for internet trolls like you, but it seems to be your lucky day, because I am willing to spare a minute or two.

I can assure you that I absolutely know how supply and demand works, as I have pretty extensively studied supply and demand graphs, as well as the laws.

It is not only a provocative remark, but also immature and childish of you to make such a blunt remark that could not be further than the truth.

Also 2nd hand bikes is far from a perfect market, so don't expect it to behave like one.

[Scott roy]

1 hour ago, Jacko18 said:

But just look at what a dual sus alloy 29er is going for these days.  And I'm not talking new models.  They are going for what dual sus 29er carbon bikes were going for 2 years back. 

 

Look at old carbon rim brake bikes.  With 10 speed. Going for 15 to 20k.  Not sure where you are shopping 

I have to disagree, the prices two years ago were a lot higher than they are today (I’m not sure of the road side but definitely on mtb side of things)

[Jacko18]

59 minutes ago, Shebeen said:

 

 

Ok, so you're an armchair economist then? Basing your data on asking price is very flimsy. The value of a second hand bike very much follows that of a new bike's listed price, not what it was worth two years ago. This is well known(and studied) in the motor industry, and why listed car prices never ever come down even if market forces predict they should. (10 points for guessing why).

You'd get much better info by speaking to the second hand dealers who have first hand knowledge of the trends from conducting multiple transactions.

 

But since you started the topic, here's a question. What do you define by the market being "dead"?

 

Yes

[dasilvarsa]

The NEW Market is also Struggling.

 

[droo]

A theory:

During the plague, everyone wanted a bike. Either to get around without being squished into public transport, or because they'd woken up without a babelas for the first time in 20 years and couldn't figure out what to do with their day. Add in the money people couldn't spend on travel and entertainment and there was a fair pile of spare cash floating around the industry. Demand increased.

The industry (with a few notable exceptions) saw this and tooled up. Supply chain issues and standard issue lead times meant that there was a pretty long lag between all this happening and the increased supply actually becoming available, by which time the world was opening up again, people were travelling again, jolling again, and the bike boom was winding down. This left warehouses full of stock which nobody was buying, and orders that were already placed for the following year's stock that couldn't be cancelled.

Cue (among other things) the sales. Manufacturers, distributors and shops discounted the stock they couldn't move (often heavily) to make space for next seasons commitments, resulting in a flood of cheap new stock on the markets. Suddenly buying new wasn't that much more expensive than buying used, and it comes with all the new bike perks like warranties.

RIP second hand market. Especially anyone trying to price their stuff relative to what they paid for it. Which is basically everyone.

[Shebeen]

1 hour ago, MTBRIDER1234 said:

Generally speaking, I have no time for internet trolls like you, but it seems to be your lucky day, because I am willing to spare a minute or two.

I can assure you that I absolutely know how supply and demand works, as I have pretty extensively studied supply and demand graphs, as well as the laws.

It is not only a provocative remark, but also immature and childish of you to make such a blunt remark that could not be further than the truth.

Also 2nd hand bikes is far from a perfect market, so don't expect it to behave like one.

You should ask for a refund on the money you paid for your economics studies then.

The key point is you battling to sell something for what you think it's worth. There is a disconnect there, textbook.

 

 

[Shebeen]

55 minutes ago, Jacko18 said:

Yes

Yes what?

Definition of what you consider a "dead" market, please.

[Jacko18]

4 minutes ago, Shebeen said:

Yes what?

Definition of what you consider a "dead" market, please.

Yes

[bleedToWin]

2 hours ago, MTBRIDER1234 said:

I absolutely know how supply and demand works

19 hours ago, MTBRIDER1234 said:

 ... going for thousands more than they were really worth ...

 ... having to take 5k less than what it was really worth...

... for 12k below market value struggling to sell them...

Hmm 🤔

[bleedToWin]

2 hours ago, MTBRIDER1234 said:

Also 2nd hand bikes is far from a perfect market, so don't expect it to behave like one.

Sure, but you report consistent trends that deviate from your valuations. Sounds like all the players in the market (bar a couple) are in rough agreement on value. 

Edited May 10, 2023 by bleedToWin

[Shebeen]

28 minutes ago, bleedToWin said:

Sure, but you report consistent trends that deviate from your valuations. Sounds like all the players in the market (bar a couple) are in rough agreement on value. 

Give him a bit of space, he's gone back to his extensive supply and demand curves to come educate the trolls.

[Shebeen]

43 minutes ago, Jacko18 said:

Yes

Ja, well no fine. It's your thread, bit odd if you don't want to participate in it.