Absa Cape Epic 2022

[Trashy]

Perhaps there are just more ex golfers doing the epic now than before...

[DieselnDust]

11 minutes ago, Jewbacca said:

Seems like a lot of effort for something that subjective.

Much like the various GOAT sportser debates, I don't think you can ever actually come to a definitive conclusion.

You might find that people pulled out this year more than any other because the last 2 years had them living closer to breaking point and it didn't take much to push them past their limit. 

I know I'm definitely a lot less robust in nature after the last 2 years of anxiety and uncertainty. 

for sure and we're not looking for definitive answers just looking at the story and hows it told in the context of its history. The alternative is say its the hardest of the 2009 to present era.

Its always interesting to look at the data and see what stories jump out at you.

we can also claim its the hardest of the 29er era since that is a handicap in and of itself

[Ozzie NL]

3 minutes ago, DieselnDust said:

for sure and we're not looking for definitive answers just looking at the story and hows it told in the context of its history. The alternative is say its the hardest of the 2009 to present era.

Its always interesting to look at the data and see what stories jump out at you.

we can also claim its the hardest of the 29er era since that is a handicap in and of itself

On the back of your comments regarding earlier words I went back to Epic website and seems they have effectively already normalised the data by listing individual finishers and not reconstituted teams. 

[M L]

2 hours ago, TheoG said:

Its obvious, this year was simply brutal ...  

Or we got soft over the years.

[DieselnDust]

another way to look at it is total time in the saddle for the sharp end, the midfield and the just-in-timers (JiTs) [not to be confused with Gits]

or

total calories consumed (impossible to obtain)

or average speed across the spectrum of sharpend, Midfield and JiTs

Edited March 30, 2022 by DieselnDust

[TheoG]

1 minute ago, M L said:

Or we got soft over the years.

Maybe, but I don't think all of the double DNF percentage compared to last year can be attributed to "softness" ... .

[Trashy]

This is such a useless exercise. There is simply no way to account for all the variables without the reason for every single dropout for every year. Even then, it's not a straightforward task.

Maybe after 2 years of isolation people's immune systems aren't as strong as before and they picked up bugs more easily. Maybe there's a more violent jippo bug going around.

Maybe Covid has had an unknown long term effect on some of the entrants.

 

[gerriemtb]

I was on holiday during the Epic and maintained a low profile on social media to avoid too much news on the race. I just caught up with watching the highlights of all the stages - what an event! Must say the coverage is on a high level. I enjoyed it a lot.

Back to your discussion: I flew through all the stages in a couple of hours with a simple nutrition plan of beer and biltong, so I don't think this year was too tough  

[wessie12]

I was privileged to be involved at the Epic this year as crew member and spend every day at various sections alongside the route. Apart from the acceptable dropout rate from the heat, illness,  mechanicals, crashes etc I was stunned at number of riders that pitch up genuinely under prepared. There is definitely a percentage of riders that under estimate the Epic either by poor fitness/conditioning and shockingly poor skill levels.  Everyday there was a couple of really big guys at the back end that did amazingly well in difficult conditions and if they can manage to be prepared there's no excuse. 

[Gunston]

Having serious envy during the race for the fancy treatment the guys received in the ABSA VIP tents… whats the trick, how does one get in on that action?

[DieselnDust]

4 hours ago, Trashy said:

This is such a useless exercise. There is simply no way to account for all the variables without the reason for every single dropout for every year. Even then, it's not a straightforward task.

Maybe after 2 years of isolation people's immune systems aren't as strong as before and they picked up bugs more easily. Maybe there's a more violent jippo bug going around.

Maybe Covid has had an unknown long term effect on some of the entrants.

 

valid points, hence there only true measure is to look at time in the saddle for a riders who done as many as possible.

To me they're all hard, really hard. More meters of climbing doesn't make it harder than km's of sand or unrideable terrain. Its going to be hard and yo better be prepared that's really all you need to know.

But if you are going to compare then at least compare apples with apples

I'm not convince drop out rate is a good measure anyway but it does tell a story.

Calories burned

average speed

a combination of the above will start to reveal the truth because then we're looking at the whole painting no just one brush stroke

[eala]

The way i see it this year is that there were guys i know that obtained an entry that would have not been interested in the past because of the difficulty to get such an entry .They could ,would not have prepared like i did in the past due to very few pre events during the year .When the heat hit day one,i knew they would be in trouble and they did not make it past halfway of day two and three .The riders that have pedigree ,having years of mtbing under their belt and have done many stage races also suffered ,but managed to grind the first three stages away and made it to the end .The start this year exposed bad prep very early, where in the past it happened only later .The few times that i have been caught on a mtb in extreme heat have not been pleasant and there is nothing that can really prepare you for that .Last year the queen stage was stage five and the back markers got caught in a rainstorm halfway on the mountain .Average speed drops and things got messy and really difficult 

Edited March 31, 2022 by eala

[Tatt]

Has anyone done the sums of the m/km climbed for each event. That is a good estimate of how much you are going to k*k, especially if you are one of the back of pack.

After that you can factor in heat, sand, terrain, etc. 

Out of interest, lots of rain also makes it k*k to ride (2014 Day 2 & 2018 Day 3), when everything is covered in mud and you end up using all your water to try and keep the chain clean..

[wolver]

14 hours ago, wessie12 said:

I was privileged to be involved at the Epic this year as crew member and spend every day at various sections alongside the route. Apart from the acceptable dropout rate from the heat, illness,  mechanicals, crashes etc I was stunned at number of riders that pitch up genuinely under prepared. There is definitely a percentage of riders that under estimate the Epic either by poor fitness/conditioning and shockingly poor skill levels.  Everyday there was a couple of really big guys at the back end that did amazingly well in difficult conditions and if they can manage to be prepared there's no excuse. 

Interesting you mention the lack of preparation. I can MAYBE understand underestimating it at the first attempt, but in the results I saw a rider that did not finish his first 4 attempts, finished one and then didn't finish 2 subsequent attempts. Obviously there could be more to his story, but that seems like banging your head against the wall! Then again, maybe he gets a free entry every time, doesn't take it seriously and feels nothing to bail when the going gets tough. To me it burns either way... wasting money or wasted opportunity🙋‍♂️  

[DieselnDust]

33 minutes ago, wolver said:

Interesting you mention the lack of preparation. I can MAYBE understand underestimating it at the first attempt, but in the results I saw a rider that did not finish his first 4 attempts, finished one and then didn't finish 2 subsequent attempts. Obviously there could be more to his story, but that seems like banging your head against the wall! Then again, maybe he gets a free entry every time, doesn't take it seriously and feels nothing to bail when the going gets tough. To me it burns either way... wasting money or wasted opportunity🙋‍♂️  

via the grapevine I heard that one of the Lion dropped out due to a lack of preparation. He's been flirting with disaster for some time, relying on last years fitness to get him through and this year it bit and we're down to 3. They get free entries hence they ride every year.

Not sure what to make of people who don't respect the event and simply throw money or their bodies at it for giggles when there's probably a million mtber' out there dying for an opportunity to ride it.

Should qualifying criteria be a pre-requisite for acceptance of your entry? I don't know what the answer is.

Many of the riders didn't prep as they would have. Two pals from the UK were definitely not in the same shape they were in 2019 an admitted as much. Others were in the form of their life and nerves got to them and they struggled the first 4 days.

There were peeps at the back chasing cut of that were in shape but not fit shape .

As the entry fee becomes more unattainable I don't see the general fitness of the amateurs getting better

[wolver]

2 minutes ago, DieselnDust said:

via the grapevine I heard that one of the Lion dropped out due to a lack of preparation. He's been flirting with disaster for some time, relying on last years fitness to get him through and this year it bit and we're down to 3. They get free entries hence they ride every year.

Not sure what to make of people who don't respect the event and simply throw money or their bodies at it for giggles when there's probably a million mtber' out there dying for an opportunity to ride it.

Should qualifying criteria be a pre-requisite for acceptance of your entry? I don't know what the answer is.

Many of the riders didn't prep as they would have. Two pals from the UK were definitely not in the same shape they were in 2019 an admitted as much. Others were in the form of their life and nerves got to them and they struggled the first 4 days.

There were peeps at the back chasing cut of that were in shape but not fit shape .

As the entry fee becomes more unattainable I don't see the general fitness of the amateurs getting better

I wonder if the shorter time from entry to event (October 2021 to March 2022?, compared to the normal March to March) played a factor in preparation for this year's event. Skimping on the base work perhaps.

How would qualifying work though? 3 day stage race under a certain time? But what about the fit/prepared entrants that are just slow. I don't think the race needs to be only for "fast" riders... especially because we'll probably be old and slow by the time we've worked a lifetime to afford the entry😋