What would it take to do the CT cycle race in 3hrs?

[braamverster]

Soooo....

 

I achieved goal number 2 and got a 2.57 for the 94.7 this Sunday (Group F). 

 

But how am I placed to achieve goal number 1,  i.e. a 3hr CT cycle race?

 

What does it take?

 

My previous best time in CT Cycle race was 3.35 in 2019, but I was back in 2H, and it was a windy day, so I figured in a better group on a less windy day I might have done 3:20-ish. 3:20 sounds pretty close to 3:00. Is it?

 

My current FTP is 260 (trainerroad ramp test - taken in Jhb where I live) and I weigh 85, so watt/KG is 3.06. Is that enough? Or even close?

 

Thanks!

[pista]

Get a E road bike.They seem to be acceptable at most races now.

[NicoR]

Average speed of +- 36 km/h. The rest doesn't really matter.

[Jewbacca]

There are more threads on this than there is plastic in the sea...... 

[Cheese]

I, would want to say , a bit of training , but then saw your figures.

I way around 85 and never did a sub 3 at the Argus with my past 94,7 times varying between 2:32 and 2:36.

 

Last Argus was a bit windy with 280 FTP did 3:03 . FTP done on Virgin Active Wattbike, SO I would say go for 300FTP at that weight, or loose weight.

 

I usually lost the bunch going up Smitswinkel and then have to do a lot of soloing from thereon.

So if you can hang on over those hills then you should easily make it.

 

Last few Argus was VB , they now have different system.

[braamverster]

Get a E road bike.They seem to be acceptable at most races now.

In the 94.7 this weekend, there was a guy on an e-MTB who was pushing his buddy (on a normal road bike) up the long hill before you hit Bram Fisher...

 

Naughty, very naughty...

[braamverster]

I, would want to say , a bit of training , but then saw your figures.

I way around 85 and never did a sub 3 at the Argus with my past 94,7 times varying between 2:32 and 2:36.

 

Last Argus was a bit windy with 280 FTP did 3:03 . FTP done on Virgin Active Wattbike, SO I would say go for 300FTP at that weight, or loose weight.

 

I usually lost the bunch going up Smitswinkel and then have to do a lot of soloing from thereon.

So if you can hang on over those hills then you should easily make it.

 

Last few Argus was VB , they now have different system.

Thanks, very helpful - you were unlucky not to break 3 hrs in the last Argus with the wind

[DieselnDust]

Average speed of +- 36 km/h. The rest doesn't really matter.

 

 

Average speed required for a sub 3 is 36.35km/hr. +. Any minus and its 3hrs +

 

I rode 2:55 in 2018 and 3;12 in 2019. P2W is >3.9W/kg.

 

So I'd say that if you're not in the 4W/kg range you don't have a snowballs hope in hell of getting in under 3.

 

Either drop some weight or get that power right up to over 330W

[dirtypot]

You're also going to have a tough time doing it from 2H.  You need to be closer to the front.

[Vetplant]

We are a weird lot of beings... for some reason we place an inordinate amount of importance on finishing something under a nice round number.

 

It is not a criticism of the OP, just an observation of us humans.

 

I was also very chuffed when I first rode a sub3 947, whereas earlier the year I did a comfortable 2h34 at Emperors, which is also a full length road race.

 

Again, we are weird. 

 

Look at the graph for Marathon finishing times below.

[braamverster]

We are a weird lot of beings... for some reason we place an inordinate amount of importance on finishing something under a nice round number.

 

It is not a criticism of the OP, just an observation of us humans.

 

I was also very chuffed when I first rode a sub3 947, whereas earlier the year I did a comfortable 2h34 at Emperors, which is also a full length road race.

 

Again, we are weird. 

 

Look at the graph for Marathon finishing times below.

Thanks, that graph is a classic...

[verandapanda]

Following on from everyone above, I posted these more practical race-day tips on a previous forum:

 

1. Get your seeding value down- if your group can't ride at sub-3 pace and you can't ride away from them like "mini Thomas de Gendt", kiss that sub-3 goodbye;

2. Climbs - Your P/kg is CRITICAL. As mentioned above. 

3. Gearing - If you can hold 65 km/h, with a light-ish SE, without spinning-out when you turn after Smits you will avoid being dropped. That is approx. a 50-11 at 100 rpm so if you can't #spintowin consider a semi-compact; 
4. Refuel - Eat before you're hungry & drink before you're thirsty. You'll be burning matches and you do not want to 'bonk'. Doesn't matter what your P/kg is if your tank is empty... 

5. Be Safe - From my experience some risks may be required and will be worth taking  i.e. bridging a gap if the bunch splits following a crash, but some are NOT. As my coach once said, you can't get a sub-3 if you don't finish. 

[Spinnekop]

I, would want to say , a bit of training , but then saw your figures.

I way around 85 and never did a sub 3 at the Argus with my past 94,7 times varying between 2:32 and 2:36.

 

Last Argus was a bit windy with 280 FTP did 3:03 . FTP done on Virgin Active Wattbike, SO I would say go for 300FTP at that weight, or loose weight.

 

 

3.75w/kg........should be able to hack it in a good seeding group.  

[Mamil]

In my case it would take a strong wind that conveniently changed direction 1.499 hours after I crossed the starting mat. 

 

Did a 3.15 in 2018 on that perfect day .... and doubt I'll ever do better.

[Ttocs]

Simple model

Eat Less, train more

Done

[Skubarra]

Following on from everyone above, I posted these more practical race-day tips on a previous forum:

 

1. Get your seeding value down- if your group can't ride at sub-3 pace and you can't ride away from them like "mini Thomas de Gendt", kiss that sub-3 goodbye;

 

Great list but I would actually not go beyond point 1, because once your seeding value is down it automatically means all the other things are in place.

 

Your Racetec seeding group (I'm not referring to CTCT start groups)  is a great indicator of how on track you are. If you are A then you are guaranteed of a sub-3 barring some weather disaster like this year. B you are definitely in the mix and C you have an outside chance and need the stars to align on the day. Beyond that no realistic chance.

 

On a aside I have absolutely no idea what my power output is or what the gearing is on my road bike but if on a good day I can wheel suck like a champ in B bunch I know I'm ready for that Sub 3 attempt