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Is the second hand bike market about to explode?


Markellis
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I have chatting to a few guys I know in the industry and have seen a few examples first hand now, looks like we in for a +-30% Increase on imported bike stuffs due to the awesome exchange rate we are seeing.

 

At the moment you can grab some killer deals on bikes, specialized and canondale come to mind, but once the local stock is gone, bike prices are potentially going to rocket. I find it highly unlikely the exchange rate will stabilize any time soon.

 

I reckon we going to see a huge increase in second hand bike and trainer sales pretty soon, more in demand and at higher prices.

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I think it's highly likely we will follow that trajectory but

 

 

 

.. What if due to our government and people thinking no rule applies to them, cycling in general gets out lawed for a bit (I'm taking a piss here BTW, calm down keyboard warriors)

 

How does this situation look then

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I think it's highly likely we will follow that trajectory but

 

 

 

.. What if due to our government and people thinking no rule applies to them, cycling in general gets out lawed for a bit (I'm taking a piss here BTW, calm down keyboard warriors)

 

How does this situation look then

 

OR, events keeps on being postponed, no need to replace bikes, excess stock .... N+1 no longer in fashion ..... income issues ....

 

2nd hand market may get flooded ....

 

 

going to be interesting to see how this thing plays out over the next year or two ....

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I'm thinking the have's will still make a plan to get that shiny new piece of kit. (but in reduced numbers)

Those people may also opt to hold on to what they have for a while longer, rather look at the cost of "upgrading" component wise.

 

Perhaps a solid component market may be of better value to the importers.

 

If they stock "old technology" components for maintenance, it may just keep them ticking over from a volume point of view, instead of trying to sell grouppos for 25k a shot (I have no idea what a top of the range groupset cost) 

I see shimano still offers their 2 x 10 option in the new deore offering, despite coolheats that seemed to have thought that 2x was a dying breed...

Edited by RocknRolla
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there is no doubt in my mind that several bike shops will go kaput, winter used to be the quiet period in the industry but MTB solved that.

 

firesales will surely be required, doubt many bigger players will want MORE stock.

 

using some thumbsucks

so your 2019 mtb that went for R50k RRP will probably be available for R35k new.

The guy who bought it in 2019 and has been riding it for a year will need to sell at a 30-40% discount on that to get a buyer. If the oke really needs the cash then it's go, otherwise he will hold onto it - how many people fit into the former boat will dictate the amount seen on the market.

 

 

I don't see the distributers bringing in that much new stock, knowing that the 2020 version of this bike will now be R80k

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From the pricing of upcoming MY2021 bikes that I've seen, you're going to need a sizeable disposable income to ride new bikes and parts.

If you're happy not being on the latest and greatest model, make a plan with the end of season sales happening now.

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From the pricing of upcoming MY2021 bikes that I've seen, you're going to need a sizeable disposable income to ride new bikes and parts.

 

If you're happy not being on the latest and greatest model, make a plan with the end of season sales happening now.

I'm taking my advert down - I just realised that my Mobu might be the last new bike I ever own and its paid for

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I'm taking my advert down - I just realised that my Mobu might be the last new bike I ever own and its paid for

 

I need to qualify my comment with "the information contained in or provided from or through my comments do not intended to be and do not constitute financial advice".  ;) 

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Taking a look at some of the prices as it stand and comparing it to last year Sept we already seeing a 25-40% increase alone on the "Its just inflation" part of the price. Coupled with the extra taxes on imports and the fact that the gov is killing our economy we are going to be lucky to get anything without a loan one of these days

 

Buying a bike new has already become stupid as no bike... yes NO BIKE is worth a R150k+ price tag. The manufacturer is just taking this piss here with their "Billions and Billions and Billions and Billions and Billions and Billions" apparently spent on research that needs to be recouped.... Its 2 guys sitting in a basement drawing it out on a 3D emulator so its all just marketing nonsense.

 

In effect I forsee manufaturers getting off the gravy train as no one is going to buy their expensive bikes due to the pure fact its not worth as much as a semi nice car anymore. They going to rehash the same frame year after year at a reduced rate till the market recoveres and as it stands that will be 10 years from now in my opinion

 

My 2013 Rocky Mountain Vertex 999 RSL is still one of the best hard tail frames with a full carbon XO1 groupset 1x11 with DT swiss hubs at 10.3kg with peddles and cages on and I only paid 14k for it...

 

You want to pay how much for that fancy name again ? Ppl need to get real for a change and not entertain the cash gouging for a new paint job on the same OLD bike frame.

Edited by MTB-More
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I'm taking my advert down - I just realised that my Mobu might be the last new bike I ever own and its paid for

I have just sold my tb4 as I was hoping to return the uk very soon.

Now plans have changed for a while and I need mnt bike. Can never build for what I sold for .

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OR, events keeps on being postponed, no need to replace bikes, excess stock .... N+1 no longer in fashion ..... income issues ....

 

2nd hand market may get flooded ....

 

 

going to be interesting to see how this thing plays out over the next year or two ....

erm... you need to do events to be allowed ot change your bike?

 

Shame. Your wife really has you by the balls, doesn't she? 

 

:P

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I have just sold my tb4 as I was hoping to return the uk very soon.

Now plans have changed for a while and I need mnt bike. Can never build for what I sold for .

if you buy and sell in the same market you shouldn't lose out. i think you might just see relative bargains coming 2nd hand in the R50k + category.

 

you could always offer the buyer his cash back, he might need it more than the bike now!

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