Critérium du Dauphiné - 2022

[Mamil]

I really enjoyed wva very subdued and somewhat delayed celebration. 

Whatever cat and mouse the break was playing it was absolutely thrilling to watch. 

[bleedToWin]

I mean it's classic game theory right. Why are people surprised when it plays out again and again?

If the break commits 100% then they take it.
If one rider only commits 70% then the break still takes it, and now that rider has a higher probability of being the one from the break that actually takes it.
From the first two facts the only logical move for any player caught in this interdependence is to commit only 70%, and with the whole break now only 70% committed they get caught.

[Vetplant]

1 minute ago, Mamil said:

I really enjoyed wva very subdued and somewhat delayed celebration. 

Whatever cat and mouse the break was playing it was absolutely thrilling to watch. 

They almost got it perfectly correct. Two main reason why it didn't work, IMHO, was because WvA asked the GC guys to pull(which they did), and the break didn't ride all the way to the line(cat&mouse in final km).

If these things didn't happen, it might have resulted in the same result that we got in Stage 2, with WvA sprinting for 5th...

[jcza]

11 hours ago, J Wakefield said:

the break was never going to win today, Jumbo wanted it to come to a sprint as Wout wanted to test against Groenewagen  ahead of the tour. However he never made it over the climb and Ineos got stuck in for Hayter and Jumbo followed.

Its Dauphine; to win a stage here is huge, this is why they played a cat n mouse game, it was always going to happen so you dont outplay your chance. 

Still trying to work out why they brought Groenewegen to this race 😵

[J Wakefield]

8 minutes ago, jcza said:

Still trying to work out why they brought Groenewegen to this race 😵

Stages this year have been different, like the sprint stages aren't really the traditional type of sprint stage. Once the results and pure sprinters not getting there when it counts in total form.

However, at the Tour, I believe he will win a stage when it comes time. 

 

[jcza]

12 minutes ago, J Wakefield said:

Stages this year have been different, like the sprint stages aren't really the traditional type of sprint stage. Once the results and pure sprinters not getting there when it counts in total form.

However, at the Tour, I believe he will win a stage when it comes time. 

 

The route has been brutal but when you have Ganna and Jumbo riding like madmen at the front dropped riders have zero chance of getting back. It has been brilliant to watch! There will definitely be opportunities for him at the Tour, although I suspect racing will be even harder. 

[Jakkals.]

I think Groenewegen is burn himself trying to make it to the finish and come le'tour...will  be poked. 

[milky4130]

1 hour ago, bleedToWin said:

I mean it's classic game theory right. Why are people surprised when it plays out again and again?

If the break commits 100% then they take it.
If one rider only commits 70% then the break still takes it, and now that rider has a higher probability of being the one from the break that actually takes it.
From the first two facts the only logical move for any player caught in this interdependence is to commit only 70%, and with the whole break now only 70% committed they get caught.

The Game has changed somewhat, first priority is to secure a successful breakaway then whoever is left can duke it out for the stage honors. That stage was not a given that it would come down to a bunch sprint I mean Dylan got dropped. As much as Teams need Stage wins they also need points for survival and the breakaway riders threw that away. Then they don’t have to take drastic measures like the Israel Team over here.

[bleedToWin]

16 minutes ago, milky4130 said:

As much as Teams need Stage wins they also need points for survival and the breakaway riders threw that away.

Any of those riders in a position to help their teams (top 10, or close to it, for the squad)?

While the game at large has somewhat changed, the game for a breakaway rider is always to win and losing by getting caught is the same outcome as losing by overcommitting and having no sprint left.

['Dale]

Gotta love modern day memes

[Mamil]

The best quip I heard came from another Hubber "van aert was 'waiting for gaudu'".

[FootballingCyclist]

2 hours ago, 'Dale said:

Gotta love modern day memes

I see you and raise you this 1... LOL

[milky4130]

3 hours ago, bleedToWin said:

Any of those riders in a position to help their teams (top 10, or close to it, for the squad)?

While the game at large has somewhat changed, the game for a breakaway rider is always to win and losing by getting caught is the same outcome as losing by overcommitting and having no sprint left.

Maybe it’s just me, but going in the break and being able to hold off the bunch even if you didn’t win is a victory on its own. Did any of the breakaway riders even finish in the Top 10?

[Jbr]

57 minutes ago, FootballingCyclist said:

I see you and raise you this 1... LOL

Every single time, lining up on the start line for a race

[Frosty]

4 hours ago, Jakkals. said:

I think Groenewegen is burn himself trying to make it to the finish and come le'tour...will  be poked. 

Not really; there’s enough time to recover between now and the Tour. He could be doing “block periodisation” for his final prep; who knows (outside him and his team).

[milky4130]

3 minutes ago, Jbr said:

Every single time, lining up on the start line for a race

Yeah no other time except 5mins before the race starts 😂