Tour de France 2025

[Bub Marley]

1 hour ago, Jewbacca said:

We don't really know who is in 'top shape' yet though. It's as clear as mud

Drawing conclusions after 1 mountain stage 2 days into week 2 is folly.

I can not ride for 4 months and 'fake it' for 50km and explode gloriously after that. We honestly have absolutely no insight into how Jonas is going to hold up into week 3 or just how much fatigue Pog is dealing with after his season so far.

It is entertaining as hell though, which is the reason sport exists. To entertain us.

Realising we all know less than Jon Snow and Manuel combined is a good place to just sit back and enjoy. 

 

Of course no one really knows anything and everything is speculation. But we’re allowed to speculate no? Otherwise what’s the point of even discussing?

 

I only commenting on what my eyes are seeing and of course I could be wrong. But based on the San Luca stage, the gravel stage and today’s stage, for me Jonas is in top shape. The only time he really has lost time is in the descents. I don’t think me saying Pogi should hold off on attacking till the final climb is something extraordinary. For me it’s clear that Pogi’s best chance would be making it count on the last climb or the last descent. That’s when he’s actually taking time on Jonas. Unfortunately these types of stages are done now and once we head into the big mountains, history has shown that Jonas is better. It’ll be interesting to see what the approach is now. I think if he tries to attack him, the same thing happens. He’ll get that initial gap but Jonas will claw it back. 

1 hour ago, Mountain Bru said:

I think you need to consider that Jonas and Pogi are not like-for-like GC contenders. According to PCS, Jonas is 58kg - a pure climber with a diminutive physique, and a big engine that can hold high W/kg for a long time. Basically, he's a big diesel engine in a small body, like a Nissan Champ with a 2 litre diesel. Not the most powerful or punchy engine, but the power-to-weight ratio is unbelievable.  

Pogi on the other hand is 66kg on PCS. He's more like an Amarok with a V6. Way heavier, but also more raw power and punch. An 8kg difference is massive. At 6.8W/kg, Jonas would be at 394w, while Pogi would need to be at 449w. 

So considering this, it's advantage Jonas on anything long and steep where his lower weight and ability to hold high W/kg for 30min plus come into play. But on shallower gradients where weight isn't as much of a factor, it's advantage Pogi. On short, steep gradients, it's advantage Pogi again as he has a far better punch than Jonas, and can basically just use raw power to overcome his weight disadvantage for a short time, usually to get over the top of a climb a few seconds ahead of Jonas. And then on descents, advantage Pogi again- 8kg makes a huge difference. He's taken more time on Jonas on descents than on climbs in this tour.

So given their respective advantages and disadvantages, Pogi's tactics make perfect sense. He knows he'll probably lose some time to Jonas in the Pyrenees, so he's trying to build a buffer on the terrain where he has an advantage and gain bonus seconds where he can. Conversely, Jonas is trying to limit his losses on the terrain that doesn't suit him.

This tour is so perfectly balanced, and it might come down to the TT on the last stage, which I think Jonas is going to smash seen as Stage 19 and 20 are stinkers, much like stage 14 and 15 last year before the Stage 16 TT where he took 1:38 on Pogi in 22km.

I agree but what I’m saying is he is going too early. He needs to save the burst for the final climb when it’s an uphill finish or even when its a descent finish, he just needs a slight gap before he crests the descent. If he’d done that, he’d probably still win the bonus seconds on the penultimate climb but would’ve been fresher for the stage win, so he’d have got double bonus seconds including the finish plus a few seconds as there probably would have been a gap at the finish. Attacking from so far out is crazy. Jonas is a double Tour de France winner. 

 

50 minutes ago, Mountain Bru said:

Concerning UAE's tactics, I think the way they've used Yates is pretty optimal too. There haven't been any HC climbs or 30 min efforts yet, with most of the climbs only lasting 10 or 12 minutes.

They use Sivakov, Almeida and Ayuso to set a hard tempo from the base to line things out and prevent attacks. Yates then takes over with 5 or 6 minutes to go, and stomps hard. This drops most of the group, and makes sure there are no domestiques left in the chase group (NB for the descent). Pogi then attacks with around 2 minutes to go to gap Jonas at the top of the climb, and then uses his descending advantage to open the gap to Jonas. 

Realistically, the climbs haven't been long enough to warrant full mountain trains, and at the same time, I'm not sure Almeida and Ayuso would be able to trouble Jonas, Roglic or Evenepoel if they're in the wheel, so having them pace for longer on a 12 minute climb just leaves less time for Pogi to attack.

Wellens and Pollit sitting on the front all day is irrelevant in my opinion. Those guys can do 400w for the entire day without breaking a sweat, so I don't see anything wrong with the way they've used them.  

I hope for everyone’s sake that Ayuso and Almeida really shine on the long mountain stages. Pogi will need all the support he has. I have to say though Ayuso’s body language and interviews are not that great. Like someone mentioned earlier, they could be a GC rider on another team and that’s kinda the risk you run when your team is full of individuals. 

 

I can’t wait for the mountains though. It’s cold and raining here in Cape Town so not like I can ride outdoors. I’m gonna just sit on the couch with a blanket and enjoy the racing.

[Vetplant]

28 minutes ago, TheoG said:

Yip, he can really stop falling now .... 🙈

I think it was a masterstroke... he got the same time as Remco without expending the same amount of energy...

[Meezo]

1 minute ago, Vetplant said:

I think it was a masterstroke... he got the same time as Remco without expending the same amount of energy...

haha that's one of looking at it, and now hopefully he's falling quota for the tour is also done! lets hope... would be great to see him and Remco along with Jonas and Pogi

[Irvin85]

4 minutes ago, Meezo said:

haha that's one of looking at it, and now hopefully he's falling quota for the tour is also done! lets hope... would be great to see him and Remco along with Jonas and Pogi

The time gaps is so close still, if Pogi implodes like last year they might even challenge him for the second spot on the podium. I highly doubt that it will happen. Yesterday could be his only bad day. 

[Jbr]

3 hours ago, Bub Marley said:

They are basically showing the world that they are scared of Jonas with these tactics.

They got their asses kicked last year, of course they are

[Bub Marley]

5 minutes ago, Irvin85 said:

The time gaps is so close still, if Pogi implodes like last year they might even challenge him for the second spot on the podium. I highly doubt that it will happen. Yesterday could be his only bad day. 

In the last 2 tours, I think Pogi has had 2 bad days. He shipped a lot of time in the TT last year, but he still came second so I think that was more a case of Jonas on a different level. In other words he averages 1 bad day per tour. If that was his bad day then he lost no time at all so it could be a positive for him. And just by his face and his weak sprint, I think that was definitely a bad day. 

 

All we want is come the TT, the race is still up for grabs. 

[babse]

11 minutes ago, Bub Marley said:

In the last 2 tours, I think Pogi has had 2 bad days. He shipped a lot of time in the TT last year, but he still came second so I think that was more a case of Jonas on a different level. In other words he averages 1 bad day per tour. If that was his bad day then he lost no time at all so it could be a positive for him. And just by his face and his weak sprint, I think that was definitely a bad day. 

 

All we want is come the TT, the race is still up for grabs. 

wrong, he shipped 1 second to Jonas and therefore he is now on the backfoot.

 

🤪

[DieselnDust]

18 hours ago, Meezo said:

Cute story bro

whatever.

Clearly not big on history

[tjommies3]

JV was toying with TP, there was no need to rub salt into the wounds yesterday. I will continue to back JV just because he didn't start out as a favourite in his 1st victory (yet I picked him), nor in his second victory (where I picked him again). I really want to see him get a hattrick. 

[Irvin85]

Fabio Jacobsen abandons again. This might be the last time we see him at the tour, second year in a row that he abandons, I doubt there will be much confidence in him going forward. 

[Mountain Bru]

2 hours ago, TheoG said:

The one big disappointment for me so far is Jay Hindley.  He provide zero support for Primoz at this stage anyway .... 😔

Losing Vlasov is a major blow for Roglic too, especially considering that Hindley has looked a bit undercooked. 
Not ideal for him either that Landa and Moscon have been looking great for Remco. If Roglic cracks one day, I think Landa will overtake him on GC. 

Edited July 11 by Mountain Bru

[Headshot]

The Danish Anchovy was fantastic yesterday. The Slovalien thought he had him. Still, over a minute for JV to make up to get into yellow - what are his chances on the mountain stages?

[splat]

3 hours ago, Underachiever said:

Primoz's best support will be to add 2x training wheels to his bike....  Perhaps not aero, but will save him minutes....

 

3 hours ago, TheoG said:

Yip, he can really stop falling now .... 🙈

[MORNE]

https://www.instagram.com/reel/C9P5NRPsJDv/?igsh=MWU5Z2d2ZmkydDRzeA==

[J Wakefield]

4 hours ago, TheoG said:

The one big disappointment for me so far is Jay Hindley.  He provide zero support for Primoz at this stage anyway .... 😔

He has not been well health wise. 

[Bub Marley]

2 hours ago, Mountain Bru said:

Losing Vlasov is a major blow for Roglic too, especially considering that Hindley has looked a bit undercooked. 
Not ideal for him either that Landa and Moscon have been looking great for Remco. If Roglic cracks one day, I think Landa will overtake him on GC. 

You’re all in on Roglic cracking hey? 😂