[Event] Cape Town Cycle Tour 2018

[Donovan Le Cok]

I am just hoping that I will not get dropped er day at TOGH

 (Esp the TTT)

 

Who is in the team this year?

[Pure Savage]

Who is in the team this year?

Me Kev and Calvin, then some okes from Jhb and a MTB from Durban. 

[CraZyCupCake]

,

 

 

 

 

 

 

I just did that to stop the incessant whinging about the water situation.

Edited February 28, 2018 by scottydoesntknow

[Dicky DQ]

I see significant wind is forecast, gusts up to 38kph.

[Jase619]

I see significant wind is forecast, gusts up to 38kph.

 

And 2 days ago the gusts were up to 59kph.

 

Considering last year was gust in excess of 100+kph, I'm not really intimidated by these light breezes 

[Bump]

I find Windguru to be quite accurate but only from around four days out.

Check Muizenberg

https://www.windguru.cz/131594

and Cape Point

https://www.windguru.cz/128493

 

They should start showing CTCT Sunday later today and watch how it changes over the next week. This weekend is looking good. Roads are going to be humming.

Watch out for homicidal pensioner motorists in Fish Hoek and the grumpy locals on Chappies  

Edited March 1, 2018 by Bump

[Long Wheel Base]

The butterflies in my tummy have started coming out of hibernation and my word they busy. Over a week to go and I am so excited, maybe the fact that it didn't happen last year is making it worse.

[Cadre]

Ah, thank you kindly. As expected, current index is 0.00. So I'll be kicking off at, what 15h30 in the afternoon?

So glad I can ride with the others on the 11th of March.

[verandapanda]

Windguru, Accuweather, News24 etc. all report using the widely available, free-to-use GFS prediction model. This model is currently predicting an incoming westerly low-pressure system which will bring the North-Wester and some small prediction of drizzle over the 10th to the 11th of March. Windy.com and PredictWind use the more expensive ECMWF model which is predicting a light-moderate South Easter over the 10th to the 11th of March. 

It goes without saying that the models aren't a 100% accurate but GFS has under-performed in terms of prediction accuracy between 7-14 days in comparison to ECMWF - don't take my word for it - Google it. We are still a little too far out to tell exactly which way it will swing but I, personally, compare both models and as soon as they start to converge in terms of predictions closer to the time (4-7 days), you have a better idea of what is coming. Nerve wracking not knowing what that will be though. 

Disclaimer: Not a meteorologist, just a cyclist who loves tail winds. 

Edited March 1, 2018 by verandapanda

[kosmonooit]

..

Disclaimer: Not a meteorologist, just a cyclist who loves tail winds. 

 

Tail winds become head winds and vice versa, especially after turning the corner from False Baai

[FrikkieMeyer87]

So glad I can ride with the others on the 11th of March.

 

Unfortunately I won't be there, but rest assured that the perpetually drunk half of Cape Town will all be riding in this class so you definitely won't be alone

[LeoKnight]

Windguru, Accuweather, News24 etc. all report using the widely available, free-to-use GFS prediction model. This model is currently predicting an incoming westerly low-pressure system which will bring the North-Wester and some small prediction of drizzle over the 10th to the 11th of March. Windy.com and PredictWind use the more expensive ECMWF model which is predicting a light-moderate South Easter over the 10th to the 11th of March. 

 

It goes without saying that the models aren't a 100% accurate but GFS has under-performed in terms of prediction accuracy between 7-14 days in comparison to ECMWF - don't take my word for it - Google it. We are still a little too far out to tell exactly which way it will swing but I, personally, compare both models and as soon as they start to converge in terms of predictions closer to the time (4-7 days), you have a better idea of what is coming. Nerve wracking not knowing what that will be though. 

 

Disclaimer: Not a meteorologist, just a cyclist who loves tail winds. 

 

 

In the cape you also become use to the weather predictions changing. Many a time it was a certainty for rain  (seen a 100% prediction), that never happened.  Yes might be nice to mentally prepare for what it coming (or change of clothing), but the weather on the day will be the weather on the day and nothing we can do about it, ok maybe those guys that decided between the different rim types and / or mtb vs road bike 

[Sven137]

My worst nightmare has come true... I'm starting at the back in 7C... jeepers and my normal average speed is around 15 to 17kph

[Skubarra]

My worst nightmare has come true... I'm starting at the back in 7C... jeepers and my normal average speed is around 15 to 17kph

 

You realise there is a correlation there that you should have been aware off? 

[Long Wheel Base]

My worst nightmare has come true... I'm starting at the back in 7C... jeepers and my normal average speed is around 15 to 17kph

Where would you prefer to start?

[dee_biker]

My worst nightmare has come true... I'm starting at the back in 7C... jeepers and my normal average speed is around 15 to 17kph

 

Uhhhmmmmm.... and?