Is this the start of the end?

[The Ouzo]

12 minutes ago, sirmoun10goat said:

manufacturers sharing platforms (chassis, engines, gearboxes, etc). That’s probably never going to happen with bicycles. 

Actually if you think about it it does happen more with bikes than cars. Pedals, Cranks, groupsets, brakes etc.

[sirmoun10goat]

47 minutes ago, The Ouzo said:

Actually if you think about it it does happen more with bikes than cars. Pedals, Cranks, groupsets, brakes etc.

Not quite the same, that’s bicycle manufacturers fitting components made by another company. It’s not specialized collaborating with trek and scott to design a new frame, or suspension pivot, etc

[Paul Ruinaard]

1 hour ago, sirmoun10goat said:

Not quite the same, that’s bicycle manufacturers fitting components made by another company. It’s not specialized collaborating with trek and scott to design a new frame, or suspension pivot, etc

Hmm  - i think maybe there has been -  Rockshox and Fox on active electronic suspension developments for the Commencal frames? Fox on the Brain shocks with Specialized ?  Santa Cruz VPP is licensed to multiple frame manufacturers. Disc brakes required massive reengineering of forks and dropouts. Boost Hubs ? the move from 29er geometry? Through Axles vs Skewers in hubs.

Not sure these happened randomly. And these are the ones that spring to mind.

 

 

[Paul Ruinaard]

4 minutes ago, sirmoun10goat said:

My point is this is not a cycling issue, it’s just how the world works. We can make money and spend it how we like. 
 

Bicycle manufacturers make bicycle frames and the cockpit essentially. They then spec that with components by sram or shimano. I’m pretty sure the price of components is going up quicker than that of bicycle frames, but nobody is hating on them. 

Also, the marginal gains you talk about are important for the pro’s, it’s the difference between winning and coming second. But the cost of carry to have multiple SKUs for the pros, and for the competitive casual rider and just the rider who wants to have fun would probably make the cost of bicycles even more. The cost of cars is being contained by manufacturers sharing platforms (chassis, engines, gearboxes, etc). That’s probably never going to happen with bicycles. 
 

Again, let’s stop criticising people for doing their jobs.

Hmm, all components benefit from volume of production. WRT technology - you heard of a thing called Moores law? Technology falls in price not goes up. Processors memory hard drives screens etc. This isn't my theory,  its whats driven the whole tech bubble. Its why your phone has an OLED screen which was super rare 5 years ago but is now commodity owing to volume and advancement in production.

Also carbon fab which 20 years ago was ridiculously expensive and and bespoke is now run of the mill in  manufacturing and simple enough to do. 99% of frames come from Taiwan from a number of volume contract manufacturers. Yes even your high end Specialized etc. they turn them out cheap as chips and in huge volumes compared to how rare they were when they firts came to market. And they are so much better and so many more options base don types of layup, types of carbon used whereas previously there was only one version. Carbon was super rare and expnsive now its cheap as chips and available off Alibaba

SO FWIW from where I amd sitting everything seems to show me the cost of making anything like frames or group sets has fallen massively. Especially things like Di 2 where the battery tech has improved massively and carbon frames etc.  The first ones were stupidly expensive and complex. Now electronic shifting has filtered down to 105 and SLX which is really workmanlike. But the prices of an XTR or Dura Ace DI 2 12 speed groupo went to R 75k? When the previous price was R 35k and lesser. A 12 speed gold anodised cluster fro Sram for R 15k? You are pulling the piss. the price bears no relation to input costs.

On another topic " Agreed marginal gains are important for pros just like hybrid turbo formula 1 cars with slick tyres and aerodynamics are important to win the Formula 1 world championship and the tech eventually blooded in racing filters down but the tech used in high tech fields like racing is really light years away from what Joe cyclist needs to get him up a hill quicker locally. Your average dude needs less rigid carbon layup than the top end pros cause he isn't as fit and as flexible and doesn't need every ounce of power, rather he needs to arrive feeling a little fresher to do it all again the next day. Whats good for a pro isn't good for 95% of cyclists - its like your average experienced racing driver couldn't even do a lap in a Formula 1 (i know its a little different but the example proves the point. ) What you race is so fine line Specializeds and pros are so stupidly fit and strong the average dude doesn't come close. Greg Minaars Santa Cruz V10 is likely unrideable for 95% of the cycling populace. 

So to summarise - prices of making the stuff has definitely come down lots and the manufacturing volumes have gone up massively so the costs per unit have fallen. But the price of bikes has risen, cause the cost inputs aren't what matters anymore.

And on the other topic i replied already - supply chain collaboration is about as open as it gets in cycling. You think all the pieces on the bike come from one factory ?

Maybe we are discussing apples and pears but i think i am 100% seeing things you are saying from the opposite side, so agree to differ. 

 

 

[Jewbacca]

hahahahaha 

Okes splitting hairs trying to make their OPINION more right!

@Paul Ruinaard I disagree with some of what you are saying while agreeing with some of your sentiment.

This is, however, a classic case of 'it's relevant because I'm invested' as opposed to the reality of it being part of a global issue not a bike issue.

There is far more to the supply chain and the cost there of currently. The delays have meant huge storage issues and costs from top to bottom. Add the exaggerated shipping costs, raw material shortages/costs etc which ALL need to be shipped and stored AND cost a premium because demand supply...

I'm definitely NOT saying bike prices are remotely grounded, but globally some things genuinely do cost or have cost 300 to 400% more to produce in the last 2 to 3 years.

Rubber shortages have meant that MAXXIS could only produce about 40% of their usual annual production at almost 300% of the usual cost.

There is far more at play here than most of us can piece together without having been involved or are still involved in supply chain/logistics and production.

I haven't even touched on factories running with 30% staff, increased labour protection, staff rotation and protection etc... 

There will be a shift and very likely it will be a market consolidation. 

Whether that, in cycling terms, means less brands with bigger ranges or lots of smaller brands cornering a niche only time will tell, but there is almost definitely a change in industry landscape approaching.

 

[Paul Ruinaard]

2 minutes ago, Jewbacca said:

hahahahaha 

Okes splitting hairs trying to make their OPINION more right!

@Paul Ruinaard I disagree with some of what you are saying while agreeing with some of your sentiment.

This is, however, a classic case of 'it's relevant because I'm invested' as opposed to the reality of it being part of a global issue not a bike issue.

There is far more to the supply chain and the cost there of currently. The delays have meant huge storage issues and costs from top to bottom. Add the exaggerated shipping costs, raw material shortages/costs etc which ALL need to be shipped and stored AND cost a premium because demand supply...

I'm definitely NOT saying bike prices are remotely grounded, but globally some things genuinely do cost or have cost 300 to 400% more to produce in the last 2 to 3 years.

Rubber shortages have meant that MAXXIS could only produce about 40% of their usual annual production at almost 300% of the usual cost.

There is far more at play here than most of us can piece together without having been involved or are still involved in supply chain/logistics and production.

I haven't even touched on factories running with 30% staff, increased labour protection, staff rotation and protection etc... 

There will be a shift and very likely it will be a market consolidation. 

Whether that, in cycling terms, means less brands with bigger ranges or lots of smaller brands cornering a niche only time will tell, but there is almost definitely a change in industry landscape approaching.

 

Yeah i get what you are saying and agree as you clearly state the actuals but maybe we are just looking at it from different terms - I am using a longer term than prior to Covvid and asking why has a bike that cost R 35k gone to R 270k, the groupset from R 35k to R 75k. The 12 speed cluster is now R 15k.  Wheels can be R 25k to R 50k.

Its not all input costs. 

Over a period that goes from say 10 years i.e. 2013 to 2023 - the prices just went skywards for all the major top brands.....

2020 onwards is and was a complete abberation that IMO kicked what was already happening in to overdrive.

[DieselnDust]

7 hours ago, sirmoun10goat said:

This is called life. We don’t need the Old Khaki or WW clothes, Pep clothes will do just fine. We don’t need multi room houses, we can share a single room. We don’t need fancy  TVs, actually we don’t need TVs at all. We don’t need a high stress job that pays millions when a job that pays a few hundred k will suffice.

The basic human news are pretty basic, and everything else is just a want.

There are bicycles skiing trips people to in that are far more expensive than an S-works or the Epic.

Most people like to excel in life absa achieve. If they measure how the excel and achieve by the bikes they ride out the events they partake in, good luck to them.

If you feel your bike is all you need, good luck. I personally like my carbon frame and wheels and my 12 speed electronic shifting, and I thank the manufacturers for all the R&D that goes into these things for me to enjoy.

Let’s stop bashing people doing their jobs, and rather commend them for all that has been done.

Easy on the eggnog dude, I could just about ctch the jst of whT u wr syng 

[Kevan O'Donnell]

On 12/30/2022 at 7:38 AM, 117 said:

https://road.cc/content/news/giant-postpones-payments-suppliers-298285

Is this the start of the end of an Era or brand? I've seen big brands like Giant and Merida fall because of the same tactics played from the board room, both local and international brands. 

 

Apart from being an excellent article, it also predicts what is likely to happen to many business, large and small, in the difficult financial times that lie ahead. 

One should keep an eye out for possible bargains ahead. 

[117]

If I was manufacturing for a big brand name and they informed me they'll withhold payment due to lack of their sales (note, manufacturers carry the can here), I'd tell the brand name to get stuffed. 

The days of the brand names wagging the tail are over here, this is why we see a surge in knock off frames, local builds etc. Sort of craft bikes if you will

[DieselnDust]

20 hours ago, sirmoun10goat said:

Not quite the same, that’s bicycle manufacturers fitting components made by another company. It’s not specialized collaborating with trek and scott to design a new frame, or suspension pivot, etc

Actually they all collaborate with a factory in china to produce their frames and make it slightly distinctive. Much like a vw sharan was shared with Ford. There is a lot of sharing of the major frame components bonded to different rear triangles or even different down and top tubes. 

[dave303e]

The proverbial sh storm is well and truly on the way in other places as well. Most farmers planted Oct/November last year. November was the highest the diesel price has ever been. At 18-25l/hour you looking at R3600-R5000 for an 8 hour day per tractor vs the R2400-3400 it was a year ago. I watched my neighbor run the process from my office, 2 tractors worked for 8-10 hours a day(conservative) for nearly 3 weeks. That cost increase is going to destroy when it hits woolworths shelves. Remember if you not eating the maize, your milk, chicken, beef, laborers etc will all be caught by that. Sure it is all well and good the fuel price has dropped substantially since then so the transport is better now. But a crop planted in November is going to keep costing you for the next year, that ship has sailed. 

[117]

Ouch

[Wyatt Earp]

On 1/1/2023 at 6:54 PM, Prince Albert Cycles said:

I am always puzzled by high end bike prices so am intrigued by your remark that prices are unrelated to value . Being a small shop none of the popular brands are available to me from the importers so I have to buy from shops and get a discount . One of these shops disclose to me what they pay for a particular bicycle and according to that the margin is not excessive . So my question to you is this , where does the huge markup occurs . Manufacturer or importer ?

The general belief is that if a bike costs R 100 k the shop is making R 50 k.

Then a lot of guys take their pension and start a bike shop, only to realize it’s not a quick money making racket.

 

 

[DieselnDust]

51 minutes ago, dave303e said:

The proverbial sh storm is well and truly on the way in other places as well. Most farmers planted Oct/November last year. November was the highest the diesel price has ever been. At 18-25l/hour you looking at R3600-R5000 for an 8 hour day per tractor vs the R2400-3400 it was a year ago. I watched my neighbor run the process from my office, 2 tractors worked for 8-10 hours a day(conservative) for nearly 3 weeks. That cost increase is going to destroy when it hits woolworths shelves. Remember if you not eating the maize, your milk, chicken, beef, laborers etc will all be caught by that. Sure it is all well and good the fuel price has dropped substantially since then so the transport is better now. But a crop planted in November is going to keep costing you for the next year, that ship has sailed. 

Not quite as simple as that as various supply chain costs kick in at different time s bit yes, a higher product direct cost will be transferred to the consumer.

the price of carbon bikes is not tied to the oil price though yet that is it’s main onoit cost. Everything from the PAN fibres to the resin is crude derived yet it is decoupled. That decoupling is perceived value and that is mostly ego driven.

nobody needs a R250K Mtb to ride the cape epic but somehow everyone believes they need the most expensive bike they can afford 

[Shebeen]

2 hours ago, dave303e said:

The proverbial sh storm is well and truly on the way in other places as well. Most farmers planted Oct/November last year. November was the highest the diesel price has ever been. At 18-25l/hour you looking at R3600-R5000 for an 8 hour day per tractor vs the R2400-3400 it was a year ago. I watched my neighbor run the process from my office, 2 tractors worked for 8-10 hours a day(conservative) for nearly 3 weeks. That cost increase is going to destroy when it hits woolworths shelves. Remember if you not eating the maize, your milk, chicken, beef, laborers etc will all be caught by that. Sure it is all well and good the fuel price has dropped substantially since then so the transport is better now. But a crop planted in November is going to keep costing you for the next year, that ship has sailed. 

Cost of fuel is built into anything that moves, but the end product never seems to get cheaper when the pump price drops. At least farmers get a rebate on their diesel from SARS.

[DJuice]

6 minutes ago, Shebeen said:

Cost of fuel is built into anything that moves, but the end product never seems to get cheaper when the pump price drops. At least farmers get a rebate on their diesel from SARS.

Off topic, The requirements that SARS expect to claim the rebate is very comprehensive. In our region the small farmers stop to claim the rebate. Larger farmers employed extra personal to keep record. With one audit SARS even requested photo evidence the primary farming activity took place.

Just look at the mines for rebate fraud, the whole farming rebate is less than 5 mines.