Coronavirus lockdown and exercising outdoors

[The Ouzo]

I find the computer modelling fascinating, but yes, the mathematics and the engineering behind it certainly is like a dark art to me. I have a mate who has a PhD in Bio-electrical engineering and over many a bottle of good wine, he still failed to explain it to me (must be his fault ). Personally, I am a bit old school and believe in real "wet" research, even if just to base the computer modelling on. Or to test the computer model against.

 

What I always wonder about is what exactly the starting point is, what data is fed in, and if it isn't from real life, then how much can the end result be relied upon? I know they are incredible tools, these computer simulations, and they helped us research and understand many complex things. I understand and appreciate their value, but the old fart in me still instinctively like real physical, spit and blood splatter! 

I'm equally skeptic about the guys that find dynasour bones and then can tell you what the dyno looked like and even what colour it was. How ? I can understand the bone structure, but what about how fat thin the thing was around the bone and then hair/skin/scales etc.

[TNT1]

I'm equally skeptic about the guys that find dynasour bones and then can tell you what the dyno looked like and even what colour it was. How ? I can understand the bone structure, but what about how fat thin the thing was around the bone and then hair/skin/scales etc.

They try and sell us that dino's had feathers now. It's a joke.

[Skubarra]

 

1. BS in BS out

 

This ^^^

 

I have yet to see the model that can compensate for crap data - certainly applies to that viral simulation in the post above as well.

[Fat Boab]

 

Parametric sensitivity...

 

This ^^^

 

I have yet to see the model that can compensate for crap data - certainly applies to that viral simulation in the post above as well.

[splat]

This ^^^

 

I have yet to see the model that can compensate for crap data - certainly applies to that viral simulation in the post above as well.

 

It seems that this is the image that they had in mind, and their study proved it

 

[DieselnDust]

It seems that this is the image that they had in mind, and their study proved it

 

 

 

 

But a lot of that is steam....

 

The assumptions in the Belgian study are very rudimentary. I suspect what they wanted to do was establish a base line model to test if their assumptions would hold in real life. So build a model, run a sim, get data, then go test the data in a real world scenario and establish what they did not account for and go back and refine the model.

Instead they decide to showcase the model, probably under pressure from whoever financed the study  and created a pooh storm.

[dave303e]

social distance...simple....the way...

 

But here is how good intentions of social distancing on a ride gets ripped apart.

 

Group of guys organise to cycle together and agree between them adhere to social distancing fair enough logic.

No doubt at the end of the ride one guy will suggest coffee(there is always one). Now you have a bunch of guys sitting round a table or standing in a circle, no masks on having a coffee, conversing, laughing etc. That contact study now applies to the table where all sunglasses and other stuff is all placed and the risk is just climbing up and up and up. Interaction with the person making and selling the coffee, the coffee counter itself where a non cycling person who is sick has rested their hand while ordering, interaction with the touch surface of the metal railing in which your bike is left against while you have coffee.

If one guy gets a flat do you stand a few meters away while he fixes it on his ace? Or is it helping out holding a bike, sharing tools, giving him a tube etc.

 

Now if you rode alone chances are you will load bike and go have coffee at home afterwards, you will be 100% self sufficient and fix your issue on your own and you will be at less risk.

[Reme Le Hane]

But here is how good intentions of social distancing on a ride gets ripped apart.

 

Group of guys organise to cycle together and agree between them adhere to social distancing fair enough logic.

No doubt at the end of the ride one guy will suggest coffee(there is always one). Now you have a bunch of guys sitting round a table or standing in a circle, no masks on having a coffee, conversing, laughing etc. That contact study now applies to the table where all sunglasses and other stuff is all placed and the risk is just climbing up and up and up. Interaction with the person making and selling the coffee, the coffee counter itself where a non cycling person who is sick has rested their hand while ordering, interaction with the touch surface of the metal railing in which your bike is left against while you have coffee.

If one guy gets a flat do you stand a few meters away while he fixes it on his ace? Or is it helping out holding a bike, sharing tools, giving him a tube etc.

 

Now if you rode alone chances are you will load bike and go have coffee at home afterwards, you will be 100% self sufficient and fix your issue on your own and you will be at less risk.

Well all coffee shops are closed so we need to remove the table and sub in parking lot.

[EvanB]

Coffee shops are open and have been for a while now

[PhilipV]

But here is how good intentions of social distancing on a ride gets ripped apart.

 

 

No doubt at the end of the ride one guy will suggest coffee(there is always one). Now you have a bunch of guys sitting round a table or standing in a circle, no masks on having a coffee, conversing, laughing etc.

 

.

Two weeks ago I went to a coffee roasting co on a Sunday to het some beans.

 

Outside all the tables have a quirky sign with the no sitting down - social distance spiel on it. But a group of mamils are standing at the door, buffs on their necks, in each other's spaces and having a lekker chin wag with take away coffees in hand.

This totally supports your post. You can probably be low risk while riding with mates, and then screw it up and put yourself at risk at the coffee shop afterwards.

[splat]

Coffee shops are open for 'take away only' and are very busy serving to runners, walkers, pram pushers, cyclists and drive byes.

Depending on the location, day and the weather they have long queues of people waiting and hordes of people standing around and chatting.
Noorhoek Farm Village, Kalk Bay, Newlands and Kenilworth are just a few examples.

[ChrisF]

In geology we make extensive use of 3D computer modelling and 3D stats estimates for modelling distributions.  Often it is black box stuff driven by a recent, computer tech savvy but real world experience short, graduates as more experienced people are intimidated by the computer aspects or no longer interested.Two sayings apply;

1. BS in BS out

2. To err is human, to really F it up you need a computer

 

I was fortunate to study under Dr Less Rencontre many years back.

 

He did his phd in writing the earlier versions of stress analysis programming, using CFD theory.

 

 

He was passionate about "BS in = BS out" ....  He always emphasized the need to do conventionaly designs to determine the ball park answers, then to use CFD to determine the exact answer.

 

 

And YES, you really need to be ON TOP of ALL the "factors" ....

 

 

 

And frankly .... the world simply dont seem to be on top of Covid, not to the point where they can accurately identify all the parameters ... so computer modeling (of air and germ flow form one person the the next) is simply not accurate at this stage

[ChrisF]

Well all coffee shops are closed so we need to remove the table and sub in parking lot.

 

Been getting my mid-ride fix at VidaE for a while already.

 

 

 

PS - I go early, so dont join any lines of people !

[dave303e]

Coffee shops are open for 'take away only' and are very busy serving to runners, walkers, pram pushers, cyclists and drive byes.

Depending on the location, day and the weather they have long queues of people waiting and hordes of people standing around and chatting.

Noorhoek Farm Village, Kalk Bay, Newlands and Kenilworth are just a few examples.

 

take away coffee in a public place. Can someone please explain how you drink a coffee while wearing a mask in a public area?

 

Again rules not really thought out...

['Dale]

take away coffee in a public place. Can someone please explain how you drink a coffee while wearing a mask in a public area?

 

Again rules not really thought out...

 

Common sense, really.

The rules are really guidance for the general public.

 

I avoid the busy coffee shops where I cannot socially distance and pedal on to the quieter one that serves a good brew. Like I shared in another thread, bunch riding is not really a matter of concern; it's when the bunch stops for their coffee when social distancing become a challenge.

[dsw]

Common sense, really.

The rules are really guidance for the general public.

 

I avoid the busy coffee shops where I cannot socially distance and pedal on to the quieter one that serves a good brew. Like I shared in another thread, bunch riding is not really a matter of concern; it's when the bunch stops for their coffee when social distancing become a challenge.

 

100% agreed on the coffee and other stops.

 

My common sense will however also not allow me to ride in a bunch for the next few months at least. Just as much as there is no scientific proof that a person can get infected from riding in a bunch there is also no scientific proof that a person can not get infected from doing so. 

 

Eerder bang Jan as dooie Jan for now...