Bike boom - is it over?

[W@nted]

5 minutes ago, Headshot said:

https://www.go2berg.co.za/ride-2023-overview/ride-2023/

 

Okay, its not over. A cool R50k +per team

I would like to see the entry breakdown of the mtb stage race entries. Foreigners vs Corporate entries vs Private entries…

[Plentipotential]

50 minutes ago, Headshot said:

https://www.go2berg.co.za/ride-2023-overview/ride-2023/

 

Okay, its not over. A cool R50k +per team

In the words of Tom Pidcock “He's playing with our balls... he's taking the piss!”

[Hairy]

2 hours ago, Headshot said:

https://www.go2berg.co.za/ride-2023-overview/ride-2023/

 

Okay, its not over. A cool R50k +per team

Early bird saves you a whole 2K though .... but then if you want your own tent you need to pay + 2.6k per person. Now are these little two man tents they want to shove you and your race partner in as per person paying 25+K to do an event?

[BigDL]

To be fair, I'm paying R19k for 2 for three days of Sani2C next year. Extrapolating that to 7 days gets me to R45k, so it's not that different per day to Sani. I personally wouldn't pay that to ride my bike for 7 days, but it is within a few hundred rand a day of the price of Sani 

[Hairy]

13 minutes ago, BigDL said:

To be fair, I'm paying R19k for 2 for three days of Sani2C next year. Extrapolating that to 7 days gets me to R45k, so it's not that different per day to Sani. I personally wouldn't pay that to ride my bike for 7 days, but it is within a few hundred rand a day of the price of Sani 

Do you get your own tent at Sani ..... or do you have to pay extra not to share?

[sirmoun10goat]

On 7/28/2022 at 5:21 AM, Matt said:

Closer to home, on Bike Hub the second hand marketplace offers some interesting indicators. 

Anecdotally we're seeing a taming in the inflated pricing on second hand bikes, presumably as stock of new bikes normalises and perhaps a signal of waning demand in general.
 

Can I ask how this is being determined? Are you seeing ads being relisted with adjusted prices, or is the value of sales down will number of trades is consistent, or are are you seeing the gap between listed price and price paid (accurately reflected in bike pay) decreasing?

or is BH advanced enough to analyse every list price against an index and determine whether prices are exorbitant or not?

[sirmoun10goat]

On 8/2/2022 at 11:56 PM, Schnavel said:

I agree with this - our perception of what is considered to be a decent bicycle in South Africa, is somewhat skewed. 

Something I noted in most places in Europe is that very few people have the fancy top of the range bikes. I was very hard pressed to find any bikes with Dura-Ace or Red, or Sworks. The majority of bikes were kitted out with 105 mechanical or lower. For some reason, South Africa is somewhat of a niche market in that everyone only wants to have the best equipment possible (di2, AXS).

Countries are very different, as are the markets. In Europe many people can’t afford to buy a property, whereas in SA many people do as property is more affordable. If you just renting, you less likely to splash out.

Then for those who do own, living in a world of low interest rates, you can actually see the difference a few hundred dollar or euro makes to you mortgage. So people tend to try pay that down. Throw a few hundred rand at you bond in SA and nothing happens. 

Then you get the another side here in Canada. Many people rent in the city or live out in the sticks because property is so expensive in the city. Yet these same people have many toys, like mastercraft boats as an example. Why? Because with $100k you can do little property wise, but you can buy something that lets you have fun and enjoy life, like a boat. In SA for the price of a mastercraft boat you can buy an apartment.

People will do what they want with their money. At some point in our lives we end up regretting most decisions we have made, it’s just a matter of when this will happen to us.

[Wayne pudding Mol]

9 minutes ago, sirmoun10goat said:

Countries are very different, as are the markets. In Europe many people can’t afford to buy a property, whereas in SA many people do as property is more affordable. If you just renting, you less likely to splash out.

Then for those who do own, living in a world of low interest rates, you can actually see the difference a few hundred dollar or euro makes to you mortgage. So people tend to try pay that down. Throw a few hundred rand at you bond in SA and nothing happens. 

Then you get the another side here in Canada. Many people rent in the city or live out in the sticks because property is so expensive in the city. Yet these same people have many toys, like mastercraft boats as an example. Why? Because with $100k you can do little property wise, but you can buy something that lets you have fun and enjoy life, like a boat. In SA for the price of a mastercraft boat you can buy an apartment.

People will do what they want with their money. At some point in our lives we end up regretting most decisions we have made, it’s just a matter of when this will happen to us.

I would bet Wouts left nut that the home ownership percentage in Canada is way higher than South Africa  - and I guess in most cities those who work there can’t afford to own there and in SA those same workers can’t afford a bike never mind a sexy mastercraft boat 

but most importantly I really hope you don’t reflect on your decisions too regretfully - life’s short try make decent decisions and learn from the poor ones and be a happy mountain goat

[sirmoun10goat]

29 minutes ago, Wayne pudding Mol said:

I would bet Wouts left nut that the home ownership percentage in Canada is way higher than South Africa  - and I guess in most cities those who work there can’t afford to own there and in SA those same workers can’t afford a bike never mind a sexy mastercraft boat 

but most importantly I really hope you don’t reflect on your decisions too regretfully - life’s short try make decent decisions and learn from the poor ones and be a happy mountain goat

Home ownership has been taken over by foreign investors. Buy house and convert them into multi family homes, or  to build town homes

It’s not uncommon for people with a 2 bedroom to rent out a second room, or for people to sign rental agreements together. Craigslist is full of people looking to rent together or sublet rooms. Ownership is an issue.

 On the regret, not yet, but I’m sure Iain time I will have some. For now, life is great - I have a good job, own a place (or at least the bank does), have three bicycles and a motorbike, but this has all taken sacrifice. I could have travelled more, been more flashy and spent money more on having fun, possibly have a family to support (something I have not prioritized again after a failed marriage), but I chosen to try build a future. 

[Jewbacca]

1 hour ago, sirmoun10goat said:

Home ownership has been taken over by foreign investors. Buy house and convert them into multi family homes, or  to build town homes

It’s not uncommon for people with a 2 bedroom to rent out a second room, or for people to sign rental agreements together. Craigslist is full of people looking to rent together or sublet rooms. Ownership is an issue.

 On the regret, not yet, but I’m sure Iain time I will have some. For now, life is great - I have a good job, own a place (or at least the bank does), have three bicycles and a motorbike, but this has all taken sacrifice. I could have travelled more, been more flashy and spent money more on having fun, possibly have a family to support (something I have not prioritized again after a failed marriage), but I chosen to try build a future. 

Is your deduction based on fact or is it anecdotal based on what you see?

Statistics from Canada say that 65% of people own their homes there.... That is super high. 

In SA, house share is also super popular. Digs. It's popular everywhere, especially amongst unmarried people. I also know a number of families who rent large properties and share in a sort of commune, sharing home schooling and everything else. 

This might be the trend, but the base line stats show that it's scratching the surface. Trends seem to appear far larger than they actually are as it represents current shifts/changes. But thrown up against the big picture it is smaller than it seems.

The Canada statistics show a very high home ownership by Canadian nationals.

[Matt]

11 hours ago, sirmoun10goat said:

Can I ask how this is being determined? Are you seeing ads being relisted with adjusted prices, or is the value of sales down will number of trades is consistent, or are are you seeing the gap between listed price and price paid (accurately reflected in bike pay) decreasing?

or is BH advanced enough to analyse every list price against an index and determine whether prices are exorbitant or not?

As I'd mentioned, this was purely an anecdotal observation rather than being based on firm data. 
 

[Hairy]

7 hours ago, sirmoun10goat said:

Home ownership has been taken over by foreign investors. Buy house and convert them into multi family homes, or  to build town homes

It’s not uncommon for people with a 2 bedroom to rent out a second room, or for people to sign rental agreements together. Craigslist is full of people looking to rent together or sublet rooms. Ownership is an issue.

 On the regret, not yet, but I’m sure Iain time I will have some. For now, life is great - I have a good job, own a place (or at least the bank does), have three bicycles and a motorbike, but this has all taken sacrifice. I could have travelled more, been more flashy and spent money more on having fun, possibly have a family to support (something I have not prioritized again after a failed marriage), but I chosen to try build a future. 

This is a reality with people of my age that I have seen where they fall short.

[_David_]

Look like its not just bicycles but most luxury goods.

https://businesstech.co.za/news/wealth/613027/warning-to-south-africans-as-finances-crumble/

Edited August 7, 2022 by _David_

[BigDL]

On 8/5/2022 at 2:37 PM, Hairy said:

Do you get your own tent at Sani ..... or do you have to pay extra not to share?

Sharing- Not paying a fortune extra to have my own tent , especially as I am doing the event with my son. 

Edited August 7, 2022 by BigDL

[BigDL]

On 8/5/2022 at 7:28 AM, LazyTrailRider said:

This is simply a result of less people being able to afford new cars.

In wealthier countries, buying a new car is for most people not a stretch by any means, so there is less demand for used and thus the prices are lower.

I would amend that to - Buying a new car with a massive balloon payment at the end of 5 years which forces people to either give the car back and buy another or to take out another finance agreement to pay the balance makes a new car just about affordable for most people in lots of countries, if you want a medium sized car anyway. 

[MarcHD]

On 7/28/2022 at 2:21 PM, Matt said:

This topic is somewhat sprawling, but I guess a reflection of the multitude of factors hitting peoples pockets and purchasing decisions when it comes to many things, including bikes.

Circling back to bicycles and the bike boom. Rick Vosper tends to be an interesting read for those curious about the economics of the bike industry. Very USA centric, but also a fair reflection of the global market.

https://www.bicycleretailer.com/opinion-analysis/2022/07/08/vosper-welcome-aboard-2022-23-roller-coaster#.YuJ4IOxBxsY

TL:DR he points to three vectors:

1. The biking population is flat YoY (at best), more likely declining
2. There's a looming oversupply in some categories 
3. Economic pressures, inflation and pending recession

Closer to home, on Bike Hub the second hand marketplace offers some interesting indicators. 

Anecdotally we're seeing a taming in the inflated pricing on second hand bikes, presumably as stock of new bikes normalises and perhaps a signal of waning demand in general.

In terms of hard numbers...

- Demand (measured by leads generated) is down 10% year on year for Q2
- Supply (measured by number of adverts listed) is down 6% year on year for Q2

Much of that drop is attributable to a big drop-off in June. April/May YoY were pretty much flat.
That could just be normal seasonality creeping back in to the market as people hibernate and holiday over the winter months, which we've not seen in 2020 or 2021. Or it could be a signal of a broader slowdown in the bicycle market. 
 

I've been trying to make my way through all the comments this whole week in order to post a Rick Vosper link too lol!

While US market is different, it's also the same as SA, just on a larger scale and of course with different nuance that come with cultural differences...

Example: Afrikaaners being descendent of farmers and therefore historically they value robust, dependable products as they need to survive our harsh environment. 

 

Highly, highly recommend people read Rick's monthly piece in Bicycle Retailer and Industry Insider if you want a much broader (decades long) understanding of the global cycling industry.