Bike boom - is it over?

[Hairy]

7 hours ago, Wayne pudding Mol said:

I'm not a farmer but at full retail I worked out a new hilux costs 300 sheep - that’s the most basic double cab 

I have no idea why I did that 

bllaahhh bllaaaahhhh blaaaahhhhh

[TyronLab]

45 minutes ago, BigDL said:

Farmers have a very different attitude (or need, I'm not sure) to vehicles in Northern Europe to SA. 

What you NEED as a farmer is a rugged, large-ish thing to put heavy/awkward/dirty **** in to take said **** somewhere on your farm, most likely over/through rough-ish paths.

What you WANT as a farmer is a Kalahari Ferrari because it's trés chic, and you don't want to be the only **** at the korporasie on Saturday morning not driving one. 

An ex-colleague of mine (who previously was and has subsequently now returned to sugar cane farming) says that a Land Cruiser is a bakkie, and all other vehicles (including other bakkies) are "plat karre".

Disclaimer: I am not a farmer and have only been on a farm twice, so if you're about to hurl some logical arguments at me, you're barking up the wrong tree (trimming the wrong sheep/milking the wrong cow rather?).

38 minutes ago, W@nted said:

Need some advice/opinions please. Is it better to push extra payments into house bond or car loans? I am really on a mission te get rid of all debt, but not sure what is the best sequence in going at it? (To stay on topic, my cycling budget has been severely hampered by the fuel price and increase in interest rate)

Only advice I can give is to try and not live in your next increase. If you're relatively comfortable with your current lifestyle, try to keep your flexible budget (i.e. things you can control the cost of, not debit orders) the same when you get your next increase, and use the increase as the additional car repayment. Then, once that's done, use that money and the car repayment you're now not paying on the house.

Edited July 28, 2022 by TyronLab

[ChrisF]

My appologies ... back on topic for a moment ...

 

Seems the industry is still confident in the Western Cape. 

 

Cycle Lab is opening a BIG new store at N1 City .....

 

 

 

 

 

Did not get a clear answer about CWC ....

[Hairy]

4 hours ago, cclayford said:

Yes, times are tough! I don't even have money for basic maintenance. I'm riding with a stretched chain, and can't even afford to replace my shifter and dropper cables 😬 Luckily I ride a steel hardtail, so maintenance is minimal compared to most 😅

 

Hey, you can still fall back in single speeding that bike too

[Hairy]

40 minutes ago, W@nted said:

Need some advice/opinions please. Is it better to push extra payments into house bond or car loans? I am really on a mission te get rid of all debt, but not sure what is the best sequence in going at it? (To stay on topic, my cycling budget has been severely hampered by the fuel price and increase in interest rate)

I imagine your car has a higher interest rate....so you are "saving" by paying that off before putting the same amount of money into the bond.

Knock the lowest one off first, and then use that same money you used to spend on the more expensive of the two.

[Hairy]

Just now, Hairy said:

I imagine your car has a higher interest rate....so you are "saving" by paying that off before putting the same amount of money into the bond.

Knock the lowest one off first, and then use that same money you used to spend on the more expensive of the two.

EDIT: I see others have also said the same

[Matt]

This topic is somewhat sprawling, but I guess a reflection of the multitude of factors hitting peoples pockets and purchasing decisions when it comes to many things, including bikes.

Circling back to bicycles and the bike boom. Rick Vosper tends to be an interesting read for those curious about the economics of the bike industry. Very USA centric, but also a fair reflection of the global market.

https://www.bicycleretailer.com/opinion-analysis/2022/07/08/vosper-welcome-aboard-2022-23-roller-coaster#.YuJ4IOxBxsY

TL:DR he points to three vectors:

1. The biking population is flat YoY (at best), more likely declining
2. There's a looming oversupply in some categories 
3. Economic pressures, inflation and pending recession

Closer to home, on Bike Hub the second hand marketplace offers some interesting indicators. 

Anecdotally we're seeing a taming in the inflated pricing on second hand bikes, presumably as stock of new bikes normalises and perhaps a signal of waning demand in general.

In terms of hard numbers...

- Demand (measured by leads generated) is down 10% year on year for Q2
- Supply (measured by number of adverts listed) is down 6% year on year for Q2

Much of that drop is attributable to a big drop-off in June. April/May YoY were pretty much flat.
That could just be normal seasonality creeping back in to the market as people hibernate and holiday over the winter months, which we've not seen in 2020 or 2021. Or it could be a signal of a broader slowdown in the bicycle market. 
 

[The Ouzo]

2 minutes ago, Matt said:

Much of that drop is attributable to a big drop-off in June. April/May YoY were pretty much flat.
That could just be normal seasonality creeping back in to the market as people hibernate and holiday over the winter months, which we've not seen in 2020 or 2021. Or it could be a signal of a broader slowdown in the bicycle market.

It might be seasonality up to a point, but if I compare it to the new car market I'm sure the declining curves will follow each other. June and July have been exceptionally quiet months, where in June we had people looking but deferring their purchase, in July we did not even have those people looking.

But the bottom end of the market has seen some high numbers reached which indicates to me that people are going for whats needed rather than whats wanted.

[throttles]

Guys, Behave I like this thread.. 

@Matt thanks for the response.. 😅

 

6 hours ago, stringbean said:

As said in previous post ,rich are still rich(or just stupid)

Pop round to the start of your next Trailseeker middle distance and check how many youngsters are on the start with 200k s works bikes🤦🏻‍♂️🤦🏻‍♂️🤦🏻‍♂️

Their Dad's bought it for them. I got offered a SWORKS EPIC recently by a dad who's some outgrew a medium frame. 🤐

5 hours ago, _David_ said:

Okay I asked him about it, apparently if you brand the vehicle it can be claimed as a marketing / advertising expense to the company 🤷‍♂️

Not so easy, but yes..

5 hours ago, dave303e said:

I thought claiming tax on company vehicles was limited to certain vehicles, like single cabs count as work trucks but double cabs don't? or did I hear wrong? I shut down a little when the mrs goes into accountant mode

This is correct, Advertising on a sedan (Company car) vs claiming vat on a bakkie (Delivery).. 2 different things altogether

[Robbie Stewart]

23 minutes ago, ChrisF said:

Cycle Lab is opening a BIG new store at N1 City .....

So one store catering for lycra tigers is not enough, now another one is needed? Goeiste . . .

 

[Headshot]

3 hours ago, Mongoose! said:

Sunrace 11 speed cassette  all the way for me 

Swopped my XD freebody for a Shimano one

Who really needs a 10t / 12 gears at the rear anyway ...🙃

 

And for 10s you can get deore 11-42 and 11-46 cassettes for around R1k. I have the former on my HT. In today's overpriced 12 speed market thats a bargian.

[dave303e]

56 minutes ago, BigDL said:

Farmers have a very different attitude (or need, I'm not sure) to vehicles in Northern Europe to SA. 

Yup, the needs are vastly different, take for example the UK where the chances are you have a tar road right up to the entrance of the farm and once on the farm it will be a sxs or tractor. So it makes sense to have a van. A lot also depends on the produce, animals vs crops etc. Needs are very different.

We have family on a farm where it is 25km between the 2 farm houses. In UK that would be a pipe dream sized farm. Average Dairy herd in KZN is around 900 head. In the UK it is around 150.

12 minutes ago, TyronLab said:

What you NEED as a farmer is a rugged, large-ish thing to put heavy/awkward/dirty **** in to take said **** somewhere on your farm, most likely over/through rough-ish paths.

What you WANT as a farmer is a Kalahari Ferrari because it's trés chic, and you don't want to be the only **** at the korporasie on Saturday morning not driving one. 

An ex-colleague of mine (who previously was and has subsequently now returned to sugar cane farming) says that a Land Cruiser is a bakkie, and all other vehicles (including other bakkies) are "plat karre".

Disclaimer: I am not a farmer and have only been on a farm twice, so if you're about to hurl some logical arguments at me, you're barking up the wrong tree (trimming the wrong sheep/milking the wrong cow rather?).

 

You are not far off hahahahaha.

Look they are useful, they can pull like no other bakkie and load really well. But you can survive with an np300 or even worse for the toyota brigade- a ranger...

[BigDL]

26 minutes ago, TyronLab said:

What you NEED as a farmer is a rugged, large-ish thing to put heavy/awkward/dirty **** in to take said **** somewhere on your farm, most likely over/through rough-ish paths.

What you WANT as a farmer is a Kalahari Ferrari because it's trés chic, and you don't want to be the only **** at the korporasie on Saturday morning not driving one. 

An ex-colleague of mine (who previously was and has subsequently now returned to sugar cane farming) says that a Land Cruiser is a bakkie, and all other vehicles (including other bakkies) are "plat karre".

Disclaimer: I am not a farmer and have only been on a farm twice, so if you're about to hurl some logical arguments at me, you're barking up the wrong tree (trimming the wrong sheep/milking the wrong cow rather?).

Only advice I can give is to try and not live in your next increase. If you're relatively comfortable with your current lifestyle, try to keep your flexible budget (i.e. things you can control the cost of, not debit orders) the same when you get your next increase, and use the increase as the additional car repayment. Then, once that's done, use that money and the car repayment you're now not paying on the house.

My neighbour, who farms about 300 acres across a few different locations,  with no labour other than himself (and neighbours when cutting and baling hay), drives a 2003ish Corsa with the back seats taken out. He reckons that anything that he can't shift in the Corsa, he'll use a tractor. 

[Steven Knoetze (sk27)]

9 minutes ago, ouzo said:

It might be seasonality up to a point, but if I compare it to the new car market I'm sure the declining curves will follow each other. June and July have been exceptionally quiet months, where in June we had people looking but deferring their purchase, in July we did not even have those people looking.

But the bottom end of the market has seen some high numbers reached which indicates to me that people are going for whats needed rather than whats wanted.

Got a new car recently and the smaller cars are flying out the doors he says. Fuel efficiency being one the biggest factors, people dumping the gas guzzlers.

[ChrisF]

27 minutes ago, dave303e said:

..Look they are useful, they can pull like no other bakkie and load really well. But you can survive with an np300 or even worse for the toyota brigade- a ranger...

 

One of our clients have a fleet of 25 Hilux bakkies on his farms .... and he drives a Ranger 

[Plentipotential]

37 minutes ago, Steven Knoetze (sk27) said:

Got a new car recently and the smaller cars are flying out the doors he says. Fuel efficiency being one the biggest factors, people dumping the gas guzzlers.

I have a Prado and a Hilux, I could sell either one for about what I paid for it. Replacing either with similar would mean throwing in north of 100k, that buys a lot of the extra petrol/diesel required for a lesser vehicle in my opinion.