Bike boom - is it over?

[_David_]

Look like its not just bicycles but most luxury goods.

https://businesstech.co.za/news/wealth/613027/warning-to-south-africans-as-finances-crumble/

Edited August 7, 2022 by _David_

[BigDL]

On 8/5/2022 at 2:37 PM, Hairy said:

Do you get your own tent at Sani ..... or do you have to pay extra not to share?

Sharing- Not paying a fortune extra to have my own tent , especially as I am doing the event with my son. 

Edited August 7, 2022 by BigDL

[BigDL]

On 8/5/2022 at 7:28 AM, LazyTrailRider said:

This is simply a result of less people being able to afford new cars.

In wealthier countries, buying a new car is for most people not a stretch by any means, so there is less demand for used and thus the prices are lower.

I would amend that to - Buying a new car with a massive balloon payment at the end of 5 years which forces people to either give the car back and buy another or to take out another finance agreement to pay the balance makes a new car just about affordable for most people in lots of countries, if you want a medium sized car anyway. 

[MarcHD]

On 7/28/2022 at 2:21 PM, Matt said:

This topic is somewhat sprawling, but I guess a reflection of the multitude of factors hitting peoples pockets and purchasing decisions when it comes to many things, including bikes.

Circling back to bicycles and the bike boom. Rick Vosper tends to be an interesting read for those curious about the economics of the bike industry. Very USA centric, but also a fair reflection of the global market.

https://www.bicycleretailer.com/opinion-analysis/2022/07/08/vosper-welcome-aboard-2022-23-roller-coaster#.YuJ4IOxBxsY

TL:DR he points to three vectors:

1. The biking population is flat YoY (at best), more likely declining
2. There's a looming oversupply in some categories 
3. Economic pressures, inflation and pending recession

Closer to home, on Bike Hub the second hand marketplace offers some interesting indicators. 

Anecdotally we're seeing a taming in the inflated pricing on second hand bikes, presumably as stock of new bikes normalises and perhaps a signal of waning demand in general.

In terms of hard numbers...

- Demand (measured by leads generated) is down 10% year on year for Q2
- Supply (measured by number of adverts listed) is down 6% year on year for Q2

Much of that drop is attributable to a big drop-off in June. April/May YoY were pretty much flat.
That could just be normal seasonality creeping back in to the market as people hibernate and holiday over the winter months, which we've not seen in 2020 or 2021. Or it could be a signal of a broader slowdown in the bicycle market. 
 

I've been trying to make my way through all the comments this whole week in order to post a Rick Vosper link too lol!

While US market is different, it's also the same as SA, just on a larger scale and of course with different nuance that come with cultural differences...

Example: Afrikaaners being descendent of farmers and therefore historically they value robust, dependable products as they need to survive our harsh environment. 

 

Highly, highly recommend people read Rick's monthly piece in Bicycle Retailer and Industry Insider if you want a much broader (decades long) understanding of the global cycling industry. 

[esCape-ist]

well clearly the cost of cycling is not only an issue in RSA

[DieselnDust]

6 hours ago, esCape-ist said:

well clearly the cost of cycling is not only an issue in RSA

we're not affected by BREXIT but we are affected by shipping costs, Durban port backlog that increases demurrage costs and small market issues like distributors not attracting as large discounts as European or NA distributors and lastly, The Cartel

[gemmerbal]

has anyone mentioned that the MoreCorp Lifestyle centre is opening soon in Parow/N1 City? this brings the Cyclelab and Proshop stores together in the greater CoCT metropole. they apparently bought the building where the church used to be. 

[Hairy]

3 hours ago, gemmerbal said:

has anyone mentioned that the MoreCorp Lifestyle centre is opening soon in Parow/N1 City? this brings the Cyclelab and Proshop stores together in the greater CoCT metropole. they apparently bought the building where the church used to be. 

Walked the site the other day .... it is BIG, but have not seen it fitted, or in the process of being fitted out as yet.
Question is, will they be as K@K at service and advice on the sales floor as the one in Town was.

[MORNE]

No…just getting started😏

 

[Hairy]

1 minute ago, MORNE said:

No…just getting started😏

 

bloody e-bikes blowing up 

[Frosty]

7 minutes ago, MORNE said:

No…just getting started😏

We're having a fire sale!

1x 160mm and 1x 180mm disk rotor, mint condition, hardly used
Has been heat treated to extra strength

[MORNE]

47 minutes ago, Frosty said:

We're having a fire sale!

1x 160mm and 1x 180mm disk rotor, mint condition, hardly used
Has been heat treated to extra strength

Black on black looks mint 👌

[splat]

10 hours ago, MORNE said:

No…just getting started😏

 

 

 

That'll buff right out

[DieselnDust]

Be a self starter, build it yourself 

[Ispeed_V]

With the new rates tariffs now being in effect, it has just added more financial pressures to the monthly household budgets.

As a household of 7 (the 4 of us and our domestic and her husband and son), we are already looking at an extra R1500/mnth.

The squeeze is just getting worse and worse.

[UnclePolli]

inflation is nothing more than corporate greet it seems and everyone is using an excuse to jump on it.  besides all the good things CL have done for me..    this one did not go down well.