Coronavirus lockdown and exercising outdoors

[Vetplant]

I saw it on WA (linked to a previous address on Youtube on the SABC News channel) but decided not to share it, because I couldn't confirm it. 

It's doing the rounds on my WA as well, might as well share it here.

 

DISCLAIMER: THIS HAS NOT BEEN VERIFIED YET

 

Edit:Removed the picture as it seems to be Fake News, apologies.

Edited May 7, 2020 by Swift&Aero

[KnavishStream]

Inother breaking news Level 3 here we come

Surreal the Pressie addressing the nation tonight at 20h30 for 22h00

Where did you get this info from!? 

 

**EDIT - I happened to miss the above - Nevermind!

Edited May 7, 2020 by stevec94

[Cookie88]

At the start of all of this I was all for battening down the hatches and locking down, but seeing two friends retrenched, several facing significant salary cuts and on top of that, the many many hungry, less fortunate people when I do groceries my feeling is that the sooner the economy can kick into the next gear the better...

[NickGM]

Possibly but on what basis?

 

3770 cases and 72 deaths?

 

That's just a snap shot in time. We don't know how the other provinces will play out. We do know that WC will peak before the rest. I guess what will drive the decision is how many care beds are available. If WC can get set up for the extra beds then I can't see how we'll be held back. We may stay at Level 3 for a while longer than the rest of the country.

We don't know how many will die from the virus but the smart peeps have calculated how many will die of hunger and lack of access to medical care.

 

Lets see what he has to say tonight. Positive thoughts positive thoughts

The WC having the highest infection rate probably indicates that local government are testing for it very more effectively than other provinces, not that there are more infections. It's like when there's a general election and the DA looks really strong for the first 24 hours during the live vote count, but after 48 hours when all the votes are in it's back to normal. The Western Cape municipalities tend to operate more efficiently so get all their votes (or infections) counted first. I'm not rooting for my province or anything, it's not even my province, I just live here.

 

Anyway, I suspect being punished with "level 4" would be like being punished for doing your job too well.

[Jako De Wet]

pretty sure that is fake news, don't see anything on the official twitter feed?

[Vetplant]

pretty sure that is fake news, don't see anything on the official twitter feed?

Think you are right... EWN are quite on the ball with their notifications that an announcement is coming up, but they have been dead quiet.

 

I'll delete the pic from my post just to be on the safe side.

[DieselnDust]

I know the levels are mostly data-driven, but actual compliance to those guidelines must enter the fray at some point, as it's also part of the data (has a direct effect on the R0) If we don't adhere to the L4 guidelines, what makes us think we'll adhere to the L3 guidelines? Or, at least, if they are dropped, I think there would be an increase in police & military presence to ensure adherence to those guidelines.  

 

Basically, I think that there is far more chance of a step to L3 after we've shown to be responsible citizens and petition while adhering, than if we disobey and rail against, then petition. 

 

I know the levels are mostly data-driven, but actual compliance to those guidelines must enter the fray at some point, as it's also part of the data (has a direct effect on the R0) If we don't adhere to the L4 guidelines, what makes us think we'll adhere to the L3 guidelines? Or, at least, if they are dropped, I think there would be an increase in police & military presence to ensure adherence to those guidelines.  

 

Basically, I think that there is far more chance of a step to L3 after we've shown to be responsible citizens and petition while adhering, than if we disobey and rail against, then petition. 

 

OK i see where you're going and I agree that showing compliance goes a long way toward goodwill.but I'm going to disagree in terms of this being a metric to determine a decision. There is no measure for compliance. Social Media photos merely provide an insight but the acid test is whether non compliance in hot spot areas can be translated into rise in infection rate and then death rate. As we've seen The western Cape started slowly due to a lack of testing then caught up and surpassed the rest of the country as testing caught up. So I don't think a lot of overweight gits strolling down Sea Point Promenade on Day 1 of Level 4 is going to skew the data as those results will only be know by the end of week 3 of May 2020 if they were even tested post 1 May.

Surfers protesting, people on green belts not wearing masks, Cyclists riding 50km beyond their base are not creating hotspots. Every virologist and Epidemiologist agrees with that. a maybe its not lekker but what percentage of the population is committing these transgressions. Also that Belgian/US/UK study on runners spreading vapor was considered a poor study not indicative of the real world. to get the virus you need either kiss someone who it on the mouth long enough to exchange saliva, some one coughs on you directly, sneezes on you or you're indoors with a lot of sneezy peeps who have the virus or sit in the presense of someone infected in a confined space with poor air circulation. This is what the literature is talking too. Hence health care workers are high risk or office workers especially where there's aircon working, and confined indoor public spaces.

Health care workers are highly compliant yet high risk.

People working in open air spaces are less compliant but lower risk due to the fact that moving air disperses the virus, sunlight kills it and it needs a transport medium. So highly unlikely they will spread it wile working but then they get into a confined space to travel home.....

You also need to get a decent size dose of virus to become ill. One single virus or two is very likely going to be killed by your immune system unless you are immune compromised. This is not my field of study so I stand to be corrected by the more medically learned ones on this forum. Its just what I've taken away from everything I've read from reputable sources. There is a threshold to the number of particles you need to absorb to become infected.

 

So unless someone can show me a scorecard where compliance to regulations is scored against the medical and economic criteria I'm going to go with just those two (plus maybe a few more that are measurable) as the main criteria feeding the decision to what level the WC goes to next. Personally I cannot see that we won't go to 3.

If we  look at the USA after 52 days they hit the exponential growth rate. In fact their growth rate is still exponential its just less exponential than it was (don't listen to Trump's  daily evening campaign speech). SA is still way flatter than most countries at that point despite high population density in areas. LockDowns will not change that growth rate now. Social distancing, sanitising, masks in airconditioned spaces, and maintenance of healthy lifestyles is what is going to keep us from hitting US like figures.

 

What we must remember is that this thing must be respected. Its not a joke. Its a nasty nasty little ******. It attacks all organs. People are reporting to ER with stomach pains, abdominal pain, headaches, a few have died of stroke and tested positive. So you don't want to go out looking for it.

 

Sorry for the long winded post. Its just that we can't keep talking about compliance and being rewarded for it by a shift in levels. That's selling false hope as we can be comliant as heck and still be dealing with an epidemic that's out of control. We need to keep the hospital beds free. reduce loading on the emergency services (hence the no swimming and surfing, protest all you want, I agree protest, but there's a reason why you're not allowed to swim) etc. That's why i'm not fussed about people not  wearing masks outside while exercising. I ride alone, in the dark, I keep it that way. Don't all rush out at 6am and piss  on my parade now please.

 

Other thing is if peeps are not going to be compliant to regs or not follow the guidelines, cool. you're not killing anyone as far as you know. But godverdom please don't post pics all over InstaBookApprava. My neighbour is a cop and we had a socially distanced chat while out walking the dogs this morning - the cops are GATVOL of PETTY call ins.  "My neighbour was driving down the roa at 20h10 last night can you arrest him" "My neighbour is feeding the security guard..." that kind of k%k just pisses them off cos they have to get come out and deal with it. Don't be a 530d.

Hence the extreme actions being taken. They're peeps too. The Muizenberg family arrest due to toddler running onto the beach was an over reaction and appears will be dealt with but don't give these okes reasons to overreact. If they get frustrated with you, just nod and move on. I get it we're frustrated too but having a record against your name isn't worth it. Make your point politely and move on. If you're going to be  530d then be a stealthy one, matt black paint and wheels please.

[TNT1]

Holy crap, that's a long post.

 

I promise, I wont be the only one here that doesn't read it.

Edited May 7, 2020 by TNT1

[Mudsimus]

Holy crap, that's a long post.

 

I promise, I wont be the only one here that doesn't read it.

Damn these privileged laptop posters.

[Captain Fastbastard Mayhem]

No apologies necessary, Tim. Bloody good post, that. 

 

I'm not sure I agree with the transmissability you've brought up, I'm sure it's been shown that you don't need a certain viral load to get sick, but I'm welcome to be proven wrong on that. 

 

Other than that, I 100% agree with everything you've said, except I'm not going out at 6am because here in the 'burbs it's a shaiteshow. I'll continue in my little bubble until the normies have gone back to their duvets and 8am wake-ups, which shouldn't be long at all. 

 

When I do, I'll wear my mask. I rode in london with one of those thick wool football scarves around my face for 3 winters. I can deal with a little fabric mask and the added "elevation" to my training. 

Edited May 7, 2020 by Captain Fastbastard Mayhem

[DieselnDust]

pretty sure that is fake news, don't see anything on the official twitter feed?

Possible. Also not seeing it anywhere other than the post I received

[Duane_Bosch]

Oi! You two take your blah about hot spots and all that shite to the other thread. This is about training during covid.

[Mountain Bru]

Has anyone figured out any way for someone to legally visit you without moving in with you?

I stay alone in a small flat, and have to work from home for the foreseeable future, so having someone move in would be super complicated. So basically the only time I see another people at the moment is when I go to the shops. Feels like I'm in solitary confinement   

So are there any legal ways at the moment to see people at home? 
I've considered started a mask making business in my lounge and employing 1 or 2 people to "make masks" and paying them in coffee, but that doesn't feel completely legit. I also considered looking for a way to volunteer from home that would necessitate having another person at my house, but haven't found anything like that yet. Any other ideas?

[Kranswurm]

I personally hope so, but I don't think it would be the "right" decision at this point. I would personally have argued for another week of L4, with the proviso that it would be extended if people don't adhere to the guidelines. I could very well be wrong, though. 

 

Risk / reward. You show us that you who can adhere, do adhere, and we will scale it back. 

Just as well its not up to you and lets hope the "right" decisions ARE made.This whole debacle has run its course and we need to get back to business

[DieselnDust]

So until gov confirms .. we wait.. But the president usually addresses on a Thursday..so it could be a possibility...

My understanding was next Thursday as theyre debating the lockdown stand down this week. So was surprised to see the message. Might still be tonight but likely still being debated. Hopefully Tito wins it this time.

[Robbie Stewart]

The best surfer I ever shared the water with at Vic Bay back in the days was  Leonard Giles.  Nobody could really touch him on those right- handers and I think he won the SA champs when it was held there for the first time.

 

 

Leonard Giles was the head of the Vic Bay mafia, NOBODY sat above him on the point...when he hit the lip of that wave backside, the tide went out!

 

 

I've surfed Vic about a million times and been dissapointed every time. The worlds only Right Hand Point but a left. Such an overrated fat blob of a wave.

 

 

You also never tried to paddle inside of him at the point. It was just not the done thing. He took the waves he wanted period. Also a bit difficult to argue with him.

 

hahaha, I am sure Leonard "Muscles" Giles would laugh lekker at his legend which precedes him. He has an intimidating persona only if you don't know him, but in reality he is a lekker chilled bloke. I was mates with his nephew Stuart, and we always hanged out at their family beach house (bide a wee) in Herold's Bay in the summer months when we were not at work.

 

If you think Len has a massive backhand wave destroyer, you should see him at H-Bay's left wedge. That man is in a class of his own, that's for sure. The only guy who had a backhand nearly as fierce is Robert Pollock. He has quads the size of motorcycle petrol tanks, and he also surfs backhand. Those two men moer a face properly when they paddle out, and therein their legend. 

 

Vic Bay had an intimidating line-up back in the day, and it took me years to make it to the boil and not get challenged by the likes of Leonard, Rob Pollock, Rod Hossack, Rob Wiese, Tortie Cloete, Sean Holmes and John and David Pfaff. Those days you got klapped just for being in the water. I took some hidings, handed one or two out, and slowly made my way up the pecking order to the point I could paddle out in the channel infront of Land's End and straight in to the first wave if none of the above were in immediate presence.

 

One of the most notorious things Stuart Giles and myself did was to start the V.B.L., a wannabe enforcement clan similar to J-Bay's JBU, who were gatvol of all the crowds. It got us 5 minutes of notoriety in the ZigZag once as well. Laaities will do stupid stuff...I still have the sticker on my board. I got some proper skeef looks from out of towners for about 2 years prior to my departure from George whenever I strolled up the point with that board underarm.

 

As for the wave, ja, sometimes Vic does have a fat, bloated wave. All thanks to Don Tarloff, who used to own the takeaway joint up the beach. One year there was a fat storm that drained all the sand from the bay just before December, and Don decided to cart in truck loads of sand to replace the beach which was all of a sudden missing. This just stuffed up the wave, because 3 months later, the sand returned and messed up the wave forever. Up to that stage, Vic Bay could handle a proper 10-12 foot swell no problem, and by the time I left, an 8-footer would close out the Bay.

 

Still, one of my fondest memories was one evening, I was sitting up at the top of the point, and Len had priority. A set approached, I asked him if he was going, and he looked at me and said "nah, you go". I turned, paddled two strokes and took off. I made the bottom turn before the point rock, and saw the wave bending and starting to throw the lip. I had a stand-up barrel from the paddle channel in front of Land's End to Greendoors, about halfway down the point. Time froze. People were screaming. I was in heaven. As I got spat out, one of the locals came paddling up and saying he just saw this blue blur behind the curtain all the way down the point  about 4 -5 foot behind the mouth of the gaping barrel. I can still hear the sound of that lip crashing down beside me. Vicbay on a outgoing morning glass with a slight off-shore at about 6 foot will change anyone's mind about it being a mushy wave.

 

Those were the days.