Bike boom - is it over?

[Titleist]

The fuel and flights prices must have had an impact on the TB cancellations. First time ever that there are so many entries available on here.

[117]

Worst thing you can ever do, is purchase a toy on HP ala bicycle finance. Toys must be done on hard cash

[roodie]

Get a UNICYLE half the price of a full bike 

[DieselnDust]

14 hours ago, BigDL said:

So true - We've just been through an enhanced salary review that was brought forward three months from the usual time. It is humbling to work for a company that has stepped up, increased salaries early and by a far higher margin than in a normal year. First company that I've ever worked for that doesn't just talk about valuing employees,, but lives it at every turn. 

Would love to know who they are.

[Cyclewizz]

Still can't find an excellent deal on an Ultegra 11 speed groupset (2nd hand) so the boom isn't over.

Lots of items selling in the classifieds within hours, so people still have money.

Later we'll hear by how much interest rates will increase, needs to be minimum of 75 basis points but should probably be 100 basis points.

good if you have money in the bank, bad if you have lots of bad debt.

Hopefully in a few months there'll be some deals around

[DieselnDust]

Deals….? When demand still outstrips supply. Won’t happen 

[I FLY]

18 hours ago, DieselnDust said:

Yip employers don’t give a shot either. Come back to work even if you have to walk or stay home unemployed.

it’s in times like these when he value and sincerity of the “we value our employees “ jargon show it’s true worth ….0000

I have to give my company kudos for their handling of the COVID lockdown WFH and the future of WFH. 

In March 2020 the entire head office staff complement started WFH with 2 days notice.( more than 100 people). IT and managers ensured everyone had LTE cards or own home WIFI. Managers allowed staff to take whatever they needed from the offices to work comfortably at home. 

In November 2021 all Head Office staff were surveyed to see what their work environment preference going forward was. Overwhelming majority opted for continued WFH. So company downsized offices by 90 % and we have the occasional face to face meeting. ( There are some significant financial savings that go with this downsizing - but this decision was supported by the maturity of our employees whose productivity/ meeting deadlines remained high)

This has allowed me to work in Somerset West for two weeks a month and in Johannesburg the rest of the month.

At the moment I am in Europe visiting my daughters for 5 weeks. I work during the day and visit/sightsee in evenings and weekends. My WIFI connectivity and obviously electricity are  much better than that of my colleagues in South Africa.

Next year my role changes which means less need for face to face meeting so I plan on spending 3 months in Europe during their summer.

 

[ChrisF]

 

Another short sharp rise and quick drop ....

 

OR

 

Another 2 to 3 year plato like 2015 ?

 

 

Either way .... the cumulative effect of all these increases will impact the volume of hobby sales ....

Edited July 21, 2022 by ChrisF

[BrentCGP]

This is Cost push (Supply) inflation, not demand/price inflation, Demand is the same, or lower, but the supply is not there. That's what we are suffering from here in SA. The way to solve it is NOT Monetary policy, ala interest rate hikes. There are three ways to fix cost push inflation, and its all on the Fiscal side, simplified of course. 

1. Government spending needs to come down drastically. (ANC? laughable)

2. Tax more ( Not going to happen).

3. FIX the supply chain! (KZN Looters? the recent floods, Transnet, the ports? Its a total F up everywhere.

Most of us will be okay. I have been unemployed for over a year, came back from the middle east when Covid ate us alive out there. Been the hardest few years of my life. Using my time to study my masters and I will be on the first plane out of SA at the end of this year to join Mrs again. I hope to return many years down the line. But sadly I think my time to live here is done for good. 

But the knock on effect down the line for this is unimaginable. So many caveats to this and is much more complex that I could dare to post here. and the people making the decisions are politicians who cant run a bath let alone a country. Its going to be a brutal few years. Hold on tight.

Ride your bikes. There is light at the end, its just very far away at the moment.

Supply issues are going to continue for a long time still.

That said, let me tell you a story.

We building Mrs a new bike. Ordered her the GX AXS upgrade from Germany, paid the shipping, the duty and VAT landing in Dubai. (yes there is tax there now for a few years) and the total cost, converted from $ to ZAR was R6400 for the AXS Upgrade Kit... Now Cape Cycle Systems and CoolHeat are not suffering from inflation or supply issues. They are purely taking the piss out of us in SA. I refuse to believe any other story.

Anyway, the order was almost R20k less than our local favourite online store for the same order.

Including 2 XX Eagle Chains, GX AXS upgrade, GX Cassette, 2 Ti King Cages, 2 SS King Cages, a set of Magura brakes, and whole bunch of Wolf Tooth Goodies for your truly. Make of that what you wish. 

 

[Hairy]

1 hour ago, BrentCGP said:

That said, let me tell you a SAD story.

We building Mrs a new bike. Ordered her the GX AXS upgrade from Germany, paid the shipping, the duty and VAT landing in Dubai. (yes there is tax there now for a few years) and the total cost, converted from $ to ZAR was R6400 for the AXS Upgrade Kit... Now Cape Cycle Systems and CoolHeat are not suffering from inflation or supply issues. They are purely taking the piss out of us in SA. I refuse to believe any other story.

Anyway, the order was almost R20k less than our local favourite online store for the same order.

Including 2 XX Eagle Chains, GX AXS upgrade, GX Cassette, 2 Ti King Cages, 2 SS King Cages, a set of Magura brakes, and whole bunch of Wolf Tooth Goodies for your truly. Make of that what you wish. 

 

I fixed your post, you left out a very important word, and damned that price difference is crazy.

[BigDL]

On 7/21/2022 at 6:36 PM, BrentCGP said:

This is Cost push (Supply) inflation, not demand/price inflation, Demand is the same, or lower, but the supply is not there. That's what we are suffering from here in SA. The way to solve it is NOT Monetary policy, ala interest rate hikes. There are three ways to fix cost push inflation, and its all on the Fiscal side, simplified of course. 

1. Government spending needs to come down drastically. (ANC? laughable)

2. Tax more ( Not going to happen).

3. FIX the supply chain! (KZN Looters? the recent floods, Transnet, the ports? Its a total F up everywhere.

Most of us will be okay. I have been unemployed for over a year, came back from the middle east when Covid ate us alive out there. Been the hardest few years of my life. Using my time to study my masters and I will be on the first plane out of SA at the end of this year to join Mrs again. I hope to return many years down the line. But sadly I think my time to live here is done for good. 

But the knock on effect down the line for this is unimaginable. So many caveats to this and is much more complex that I could dare to post here. and the people making the decisions are politicians who cant run a bath let alone a country. Its going to be a brutal few years. Hold on tight.

Ride your bikes. There is light at the end, its just very far away at the moment.

Supply issues are going to continue for a long time still.

That said, let me tell you a story.

We building Mrs a new bike. Ordered her the GX AXS upgrade from Germany, paid the shipping, the duty and VAT landing in Dubai. (yes there is tax there now for a few years) and the total cost, converted from $ to ZAR was R6400 for the AXS Upgrade Kit... Now Cape Cycle Systems and CoolHeat are not suffering from inflation or supply issues. They are purely taking the piss out of us in SA. I refuse to believe any other story.

Anyway, the order was almost R20k less than our local favourite online store for the same order.

Including 2 XX Eagle Chains, GX AXS upgrade, GX Cassette, 2 Ti King Cages, 2 SS King Cages, a set of Magura brakes, and whole bunch of Wolf Tooth Goodies for your truly. Make of that what you wish. 

 

That's brutal 

[BigDL]

Presumably, if stock is still constrained and demand is still high, the bike boom is not over. 

[Spafsack]

There is a new currency in South Africa - Its called Employment.

 

We still on 30% salary cuts since lock down started...

[eala]

Just come back from Spain .South Africa is as expensive or more than Spain and they are paying R38 /l for petrol .Buffelsdrift is struggling to keep afloat .Heavy rains in summer and now everywhere things are quite .If we don,t support these bikeparks they will be closing soon 

[Danger Dassie]

On 7/20/2022 at 11:53 AM, Headshot said:

Or more accurately, have people finally started running out of cash to spend on overpriced luxury items like bikes. Obviously there are the "always wealthy no matter what" crowd who will buy top end everything and new car sales are apparently growing in SA while declining elsewhere. The reason I ask is I have heard that stock is not moving and suppliers have extended payment deadlines to assist retailers who can't sell the stuff... 

More a case of not having the right stock. Entry, kids and mid market stuff is flooded and with supply chain delays some containers have only arrived now. Quite a few brands struggling now to access the correct volumes of the mid/upper range and higher end stuff.
Forecasting has been thrown off by some brand managers not bringing in the correct models in range, and so are screwed for the next year until orders can be placed again. 
Compounding this is the strain on economy and reducing disposable income. 

Having a bike isn't necessarily a luxury, it comes down to buying habits and usage. Some people I know use their bikes for the odd errand and/or mobility. Which also points towards an attitude adjustment at some level in the South African market. 
 

[RobertWhitehead]

On 7/21/2022 at 8:30 AM, Titleist said:

The fuel and flights prices must have had an impact on the TB cancellations. First time ever that there are so many entries available on here.

I have been monitoring the TB for going on 7 years now and on average there is always 20+ entries available on the Hub prior to the race.

What I do find strange is that there's still entries available on their website